The tiny island of Diego Garcia is home to a strategically important (mainly US and also UK) military base that sits
in the heart of the Indian Ocean. It’s currently being used to carry out
strikes against Houthis in Yemen and telegraph a warning to Iran over its
nuclear program.
But this critical military base’s future is in question as China could soon extend influence to it. In the video below, dated April 26, 2025, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) explores how this island could be exposed to China if the UK moves forward on plans to cede control of the Chagos Islands to the Beijing-friendly (see China’s Foreign Ministry website) Indian Ocean island nation of Mauritius.
The video below features the advocacy of US Senator John Kennedy (Republican-Louisiana) from 3:19 onwards.
Kennedy's Press Release, of April 26, 2025, states in part:
"WASHINGTON – Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) urged United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer not to move forward with his plan to hand over the Chagos Islands, including the U.S.-U.K. military base on Diego Garcia, to Mauritius in a speech on the Senate floor. Starmer will travel to Washington [last week April 2025] to meet with President Trump.
Key excerpts of [Kennedy's] speech are below:
“Now, there is one other thing you need to know. Mauritius is very close to China. Mauritius has a very lucrative trade agreement with China, and you’ll not be surprised to learn that, after all of this has been developing, China all of a sudden is Mauritius’s best friend. Do you know why? Because if Prime Minister Starmer does this, Mauritius is going to own the base. They are going to own the base.”
...
“I don’t care what Prime Minister Starmer promises you. The only reason he is doing this is because he feels guilty because the United Nations has said that the United Kingdom should be ashamed of its history and ashamed that it at one time owned colonies.
“People of the United Kingdom can feel what they want. That is none of my business. But we have got an American military base there, and it is very important to defend the Indian Ocean against China. . . . I am sorry he feels guilty. He needs to go buy an emotional support pony, but he doesn’t need to give away an American military base.”
Background..."
Senator Kennedy has not been a member of US Senate Committees on Foreign Affairs, Defense or Intelligence (yet). But is active on some Foreign Policy issues.
Wikipedia advises:
"On 3 October 2024, the UK prime minister Keir Starmer announced in a statement with the Mauritian prime minister Pravind Jugnauth that the UK will hand over the Chagos islands to Mauritius. The joint base on the island [of Diego Garcia] will stay, with the UK initially taking a 99-year lease of the base from Mauritius. Mauritius will be allowed to begin resettlement on the Chagos Archipelago, but not on Diego Garcia due to the sensitive nature of the base. US president Joe Biden welcomed the agreement, saying that it was a "clear demonstration that through diplomacy and partnership, countries can overcome long-standing historical challenges to reach peaceful and mutually beneficial outcomes".[3] The deal was put on hold following the 2024 United States presidential election to allow consideration from the new incoming administration.[47]"
Pete Comment
Are Kennedy's concerns warranted?
What value does India place on continuing US de facto ownership of Diego Garcia?
Would India be alarmed at Chinese ownership of Diego Garcia?
6 comments:
Senator John Kennedy, a Republican from Louisiana, is not related to former president John F. Kennedy, and is a ‘China Hawk’.
Power, like nature, abhors a vacuum.” ― Walter Spence
With the US looking inwards and reducing its global presence, it is ‘only natural’ in the Great Power Game for other nations to try to fill the vacuum, which is why we have seen CSG deployments from France, India, Italy and the United Kingdom in the South China Sea in the last few years.
We could soon see a PLAN CSG appear in the Indian Ocean, deploying for exercise with Pakistan and Iran, and stopping over at China’s Djibouti base.
Hi Shawn C
What you say is true.
But I think the US is a long way from giving up a base, Diego Garcia, that hosts nuclear capable B-2 bombers and nuclear powered submarines.
India probably feels far happier about Diego Garcia remaining under US/UK control than, in the long term, Chinese control. Also there may be increasing future scope for Indian aircraft, ships, submarines and even intelligence personnel using Diego Garcia.
See "In recent years, relations between India and the United States have improved dramatically. Diego Garcia was the site of several naval exercises between the United States and Indian navies held between 2001 and 2004." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diego_Garcia#United_States_military_activities
Also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diego_Garcia#United_States_military_activities reveals there are many US intelligence uses (like satellite earth stations) for Diego Garcia. I suspect it is also a major node for IUSS undersea arrays and, in future, for long range Orca XLUUVs (also likely operating out of Australia, India, the Middle East and African region).
Cheers Pete
If the U.S. got pushed out of Diego Garcia, the Iranians would be overjoyed:
" Iran has issued a direct threat to launch long-range ballistic
missile and kamikaze drone strikes against the U.S.-U.K. joint
military base on Diego Garcia—a strategically pivotal outpost
in the Indian Ocean—should Washington initiate military
action against the Islamic Republic.
Tehran’s state-affiliated media outlets have detailed its
readiness to unleash a precision strike on Diego Garcia,
which lies more than 5,200 kilometers from Iranian territory."
Source:
https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/iran-threatens-long-range-strikes-on-diego-garcia-amid-escalating-strategic-confrontation-with-the-u-s/
Thanks Anonymous at 4/30/2025 5:24 AM
Once Iran develops nuclear tipped 5,000+km IRBMs, more frequently uses solid missile fuel and develops a blue water navy (including nuclear tipped Babur 3 style SLCMs) Iran might be a threat to Diego Garcia.
Although this may be after Iran fights ICBM armed Israel, MRBM armed Saudi Arabia and ICBM/SLBM armed US forces (in and around the Middle East).
See range MAP "Source: Defense Intelligence Agency estimates of missile ranges, 2019" at https://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/missile-threat-and-proliferation/todays-missile-threat/iran/
Cheers Pete
A nuclear Saudi Arabia will definitely follow a nuclear Iran:
"In 2013, Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence, told a
conference in Sweden that if Iran got the bomb, "the Saudis will not wait one
month. They already paid for the bomb, they will go to Pakistan and bring
what they need to bring.""
Source:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43419673
Hi Anonymous at 5/01/2025 3:37 AM
The 2018 BBC article you cite agrees with my 2013 article https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2013/08/pakistans-growing-nuclear-capabilities.html which states:
"There are rumours that the Saudi aid is tied, in the sense that the Saudis have generated Pakistani indebtedness which would demand Pakistani nuclear assistance if Saudi Arabia were under nuclear threat (presumably from Iran or Israel)."
Cheers Pete
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