Low Virginia SSN Production Coming to a Head Under Trump

Once the Biden-Harris Administration (wedded to AUKUS) lost the November 5, 2024 Election US Admirals became increasingly frank in their assessments that US industry couldn’t build Virginia SSNs quickly enough to meet USN, let alone AUKUS-Australian, needs.

Karen Middleton, Political Editor of Guardian Australia, has written an excellent article, Top admiral warns US far behind on building submarines needed to meet Aukus target, dated November 19, 2024 (ie. 2 weeks after Trump won the 2024 Election).

Middleton describes the outlook of the USN officer Rear Admiral Jon Rucker, program executive officer for Attack Submarines (PEO SSN), who is most in the know about Virginia class production limitations.

See Karen Middleton’s whole article at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/19/aukus-submarine-deal-richard-marles-on-track

[Pete Comment] Admiral Rucker's main job is to know more about Virginia SSN shipyard labor shortages and delayed supply chain realities than politicians. In the article Rucker:

“confirmed construction is behind schedule and nowhere near the rate required to supply Australia’s Aukus nuclear submarines on schedule… the US had “an exceptionally fragile” military shipbuilding base and could not meet construction rates for its own vessels this year… a materials [read supply chain] shortage had affected the sequencing order of manufacturing and slowed down the production rate."

Backing up Rusker’s warning the USN’s director of Navy reactors, Admiral Bill Houston, said:

the nature of global threats meant “there may be a need for more [high priority] Columbias [SSBNs also sharing Virginia SSN shipyards]” – appearing to signal the production pressures may only increase.

“We are not in low-rate production,” Houston was reported as saying. “We are in the highest rate of production we’ve been in as a nation [but] with an industrial base that’s less than half the size [than in the cold war]. It’s an exceptionally fragile industrial base. It’s with an industrial base that is very, very challenged.”

In the article see the declining political claims of outgoing US Defense Secretary Austin (loyal to Biden’s AUKUS Virginia offer to the end). Austin said:

he was “confident” the submarines would be provided.

“Now, we recognise that there are challenges in the industrial base and we’re doing things to address those challenges,” he said.

Austin said he had met the leaders of the companies involved [mainly GDEB and HII (also see APDR) who have publicized severe labor shortages and supply chain delays] and was encouraged by “their focus to get this done, and they will get it done”.

Australia’s part-time Defence Minister Richard Marles claimed:

 “the incoming Trump administration would honour the Aukus submarine deal, pointing to its bipartisan support in the US Congress.”

“The Greens’ defence spokesperson – and Aukus critic – Senator David Shoebridge, said Rucker’s comments proved the deal was “a mess”.”

See Karen Middleton’s whole excellent article at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/19/aukus-submarine-deal-richard-marles-on-track

Pete Comment

The US Admirals are taking a risk telling the truth. They probably aim to cover themselves because they might be compelled to share blame for low Virginia SSN production output.

However the incoming Trump Administration might listen to their advice more closely than the outgoing Biden Administration. Biden, unlike Trump, is/was politically wedded to the success of AUKUS Pillar 1.

But it will be a future President, likely in 2031, who will finally decide if any Virginias can be spared for Australia. That future President will be guided by US naval advice. The USN has advised (privately for years and now publicly) that the low Virginia production rate is a long term problem and it competes with higher priority Columbia production. Columbia production hasn't been meeting major deadlines due to the same supply chain delays experienced with Virginias.

I’m also more persuaded by the warnings of US Admirals than politicians’ references to “honour”.