President Biden has been taking the credit for the latest Hamas-Israel ceasefire deal. The deal constitutes Biden's outgoing swan song after more than a year of failed ceasefire deals.
The ceasefire is scheduled to begin
on Sunday January 19, 2025. Hopefully It will last past
Trump's Inauguration which occurs the next day - January 20, 2025.
The standard advisor
prediction approach is glass half empty, meaning be slightly pessimistic -
rather than an optimistic fool.
Marika
Sosnowski, Postdoctoral research fellow at the University of
Melbourne, Australia, advised on January 16, 2025 “Israel and Hamas have agreed
to a ceasefire. It doesn’t guarantee a peaceful end to a devastating
war.” See
all of Marika Sosnowski’s
excellent article at https://theconversation.com/israel-and-hamas-have-agreed-to-a-ceasefire-it-doesnt-guarantee-a-peaceful-end-to-a-devastating-war-247338
Marika Sosnowski is implicitly pessimistic when she notes:
“In structure and content, this ceasefire closely
resembles numerous others that have been proposed over
the past year, including the 7+2
day truce agreed in November 2023.”
“As US President Joe Biden said,
this agreement “is the exact framework of the deal I proposed in May” [2024].
“During the first phase, there will
be a temporary suspension of military operations by Israel and
Hamas, as well as the withdrawal of Israeli forces east towards the border
between Israel and Gaza and away from densely populated areas.”
“There will also be a temporary
suspension of air activity (for military and reconnaissance purposes)
in the Gaza Strip, particularly when hostages are released.”
“Over the past 12 months, Hamas has agreed to the
text of a ceasefire a number of times only
to have the terms altered by
Israel and no agreement reached.”
“Hamas has tried to
alter the ceasefire’s terms too.”
“But because of the power
differential, it [Hamas] has been relatively unsuccessful in pressuring Israel
to agree to its demands.”
“…But it is telling that in the past, Israel has
simply arrested
other Palestinians or re-arrested many
of those released under similar deals.”
“…there are currently no written
assurances the ceasefire will continue beyond the first phase if there is no
agreement reached for the second phase.”
“For similar deals that were
previously on the table, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made
clear he would continue the war to destroy Hamas after the initial
phase.”
“The war between Hamas and Israel is of course not
over. This ceasefire simply marks the start of a new phase.”
See all of Marika Sosnowski’s excellent
article at https://theconversation.com/israel-and-hamas-have-agreed-to-a-ceasefire-it-doesnt-guarantee-a-peaceful-end-to-a-devastating-war-247338
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