SSN-AUKUS's better bet than Australian Virginias

On November 13, 2023 Shawn Chung made some excellent points. 

To which I respond:

I agree "Australia needs to reconsider its submarine policy." 

Yes "Virginias are delayed" in terms of only an average of 1.16 being commissioned per year up till 2023. And that was before fully sharing production with higher priority Columbia SSBNs. The last Columbia is "expected to be completed by 2042" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbia-class_submarine#Overview   

Thanks for https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2023/11/09/us-navy-eyes-two-submarine-delivery-rate-in-2024-after-schedule-upset/ in which USN Admirals make claims on future progress with Virginia deliveries with no significant mentions of much more complex and higher work commitments for Columbia SSBN production. Its as if a Virginia fixated USN refuses to take full account of Columbia work impacts. 

Given Columbia impacts it is likely there may be a drop in average Virginia commissionings (to less than 1 per year) and probably no rise to the 2.33 per year (see page 20) required by the US Government to permit Virginia exports to Australia. 

Also even if the RAN receives a Virginia in 2032-33 the RAN simply will not enough highly trained nuclear submariners until 3-4 years later, in 2036. See "it’s likely to be 15 years before qualified Australians are able to run the boats in a self-reliant manner." at https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/astute-versus-virginia-which-nuclear-powered-sub-is-the-best-fit-for-australia/  

Biden appears to have made an unrealisable Virgina offer for political reasons to keep his AUKUS policy afloat and to reduce the Australian Government's embarrassment. This includes embarrassment that Australia will have no new submarines until about 2045 (when the first Australian built SSN-AUKUS might be launched in Adelaide). 

So, eventually, Collins LOTE and Ghost Shark AUV deployments, from about 2030, will need to fill a gap until 2045, in strategic and public relations terms.

I agree that it is more realistic for Australia to stop following the receding Virginia myth and buy/assemble 8 SSN-AUKUS in Adelaide in the 2040s. A production run any lower than 8 would be uneconomic for Australia.

This timing will put all our "ducks in a row" in terms of:

- training 1,000s of Australian nuclear engineers, shipbuilders and submariners

- would be welcomed by the UK (which could enjoy Economies of Scale for the SSN-AUKUS + PWR3 SSN-AUKUS Core development burden and parts production)

- rather than being a major irritant for the USN and wider US government (long after Biden is voted out, retires or simply dies of old age).

- would permit time to build an Australian East Coast SSN Base, and

- would fully utilize LOTEd Collins and AUV capabilities.