Australian Options Limited To Speed SSN Purchases

In response to Bill Seney's good questions of July 31, 2023:

1. Limitations of UK engineering and scheduling for the SSN-AUKUS project prevent any such subs for Australia until the 2040s. The UK's only submarine builder needs to build the 4 future Dreadnought-class SSBNs before the mainly UK designed SSN-AUKUS's can be built.

Australia will need to wait for the UK submarine yard to complete the first SSN-AUKUS (that will then need about 3 years testing by the UK RN) first before tech and experience can be transferred to Australia's Osborne, Adelaide shipyard and the RAN.

Also the SSN-AUKUSs for the UK RN are a replacement and evolution of the UK's current Astute class. The UK is scheduled to only begin replacing the Astutes from the late 2030s. It is highly unlikely the UK will build SSN-AUKUS for Australia before the UK RN's requirements. The UK has a minute nuclear submarine labor force compared to the 2 US submarine build yards - so the UK has few people available to help Austalia until the late 2030s. 

SSN-AUKUSs can only be built after the future, not yet fully developed, PWR3 submarine reactor, to be used for the Dreadnoughts, is available. Once used in the Dreadnoughts the PWR3 then must be sufficiently miniaturised for SSN-AUKUSs - all taking about 15 years from now.

2. On "other potential suppliers" Since 1788 Australia hasn't bought key weapons from potential enemies. Which rules out SSNs from Russia and China. India will heavily rely on Russian advisers, Russian SSN reactor designs and other tech to develop Indian SSNs by the mid-late 2030s. So security and politics aside there is  no time saving, in the Indian project, for Australia's aims.

And yes Brazil, with its SSN project slipping to mid 2030s commissioning, is in no position to sell all the French non-nuclear tech to Australia. Brazil is developing its own first generation submarine reactor - a long term project.

3. "Do Australian plans include building facilities to refit SSNs?" Yes Albanese and Marles would CLAIM almost anything about the SSN hope. There might be underdeveloped "plans" but these might not be significant refit realities until well into the 2030s.

I would hazard a guess that a US submarine tender temporarally calling in at Fleet Base West might replace simple parts for a visiting US nuclear sub from that tender's existing stocks or parts flown in from the US. Submarine tender USS Frank Cable, visited in April 2022. 

Australia might not have the industrial base, nuclear expertise or political-legal clearances to perform substantial maintenance on US SSNs for many years.

The US hasn't even transferred the millions of Virginia-class design blue-prints to Australia. Only a handful of Australians are cleared (by US law) to view a tiny fraction of them. Even fewer Austalians have a broad and practical understanding of SSNs. My past USN contacts haven't been too forthcoming.

So the Australian SSN Hope is just a Wing and a Prayer, this side of the 2030s.