Concerning Russian withdrawals within Ukraine and the increasing long range of Ukraine's missile artillery Aljazeera reports September 20, 2022:
"Russia’s Black Sea Fleet [BSF] relocating some of its submarines: UK"
"The UK defence ministry says
submarines ‘almost certainly’ moved as Moscow fears them being hit.
Moscow has likely moved its Kilo-class submarines from the Crimean peninsula [see "BSF" in this Table] to southern Russia over fears of them being struck by long-range Ukrainian fire, according to British intelligence.
In a daily briefing on [September 20, 2022], the United Kingdom’s defence ministry said those submarines had
“almost certainly” been moved to Krasnodar Krai in mainland Russia, instead of
a naval base at Sevastopol on the Crimean peninsula.
…Moscow considers Crimea as
Russian territory, but the peninsula is internationally recognised as part of
Ukraine, which wants it back.
…Kyiv forces swept through the
Kharkiv region this month after bursting through the front line, sending
thousands of Russian troops fleeing while abandoning their tanks and
ammunition.
…Officially, Russia announced it was moving some troops out of the Kharkiv region to regroup elsewhere. But the losses are being openly acknowledged on state television by local commentators calling for escalation.
Putin has promised to
continue, recently warning of a “more serious” military response to Ukraine’s
“acts of terrorism”.
++++++++++++++++++
PETE COMMENT
Its unknowable if Putin is seriously
contemplating a tactical nuclear escalation. However its significant that Putin would have
authorised Russian politician and general Andrey Gurulev, in this second article, to openly contemplate tactical nuclear war. Gurulev said:
“It
will not provoke a nuclear war, because we will use operative - not strategic -
nuclear weapons on [Kalibr and Iskander missiles], and bombs on planes. [probably Su-30s or larger]”
If Russia escalates to a tactical nuclear stage it is possible Russia might do a small high altitude warning nuclear explosion over the Black Sea, with the implication Ukrainian armed forces (or even civilians) may be the next target.
Russia using Chemical Weapons presents a perhaps more likely initial danger.
It seems Putin would prefer to trash the region and kill additional tens of thousands rather than lose his personal control of Russia.
4 comments:
Hi Pete,
I don't think it's unusual, sadly, for leaders to make others suffer while doubling down on their mistakes. Long history. eg Napoleon invading Russia. Hitler invading Russia.
It certainly shows how badly things are going for Putin though.
One thing the war also shows is that high levels of ammunition is essential. It's taken the combined efforts of many countries to supply the Ukraine. If we just think about Aust for a moment, according to wiki, we, Australia, only have a few hundred missiles, with a few hundred more not due for many years. It's worrying, imho.
Have a good one.
Andrew
Hi Andrew
Lets hope even if Putin sends unwilling draftees to do his fighting in Ukraine (while he's in Moscow enjoying Russian girls https://youtu.be/70hG3JrAS5E) that Russian forces will have insufficient ammo to turn the tide.
Regards Pete
Pootie just went nuclear with his threats mate
I had some respect and understanding for the umbrage Russia took at NATO’s expansion
But considering how things have panned out, I think Russia’s clumsy ham handed response has been utterly damaging and frankly good enough to get the ‘drongo of the decade’ award.
I think now that Ukraine was mad to surrender its nukes.
Hi Anonymous @Sep 22, 2022, 3:30:00 PM
Yeah Putin, Moscow's Mob Boss, has gone too far with nuclear threats. Their use would be an international disaster (Chernobyl on Steroids) with radiation floating around Eurpe. Putin is squeezing himself into a corner if he fails to make "good" on his threats. Which is why Chemical Weapons eg. Sarin or nastier, might be a half way measure to making "good".
I think Ukrainian de-nuclearisation in the 1990s is a complex issue. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Denuclearization which includes:
"Had Ukraine decided to establish full operational control of its nuclear weapons, it would have faced sanctions by the West and perhaps even a withdrawal of diplomatic recognition by the United States and other NATO allies.[9]...Ukraine would also have struggled with replacing the nuclear weapons once their service life expired, as Ukraine did not have a nuclear weapons program.[9] In exchange for giving up its nuclear weapons, Ukraine received financial compensation..."
Regards Pete
Post a Comment