Scott Morrison May only be Temporary New Prime Minister of Australia

Ex-Prime Minister Turnbull (left) replaced by Scott Morrison (right)

(Photos courtesy Agency France Press via the BBC) 

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Carrying on from yesterday, today potential for further instability in the Australian Government remains high.

1.  Centrist Treasurer Scott Morrison has now been voted Leader of the Liberal Party meaning he is the Prime Minister designate. His job will be confirmed today.

But Morrison only barely beat Peter Dutton (45 to 40) in the replace-Turnbull leadership vote today. Dutton leads the conservative faction that lobbied to unseat Prime Minister Turnbull but Dutton hasn't won Turnbull's job.

This means it is likely a frustrated Dutton will destabilise new Prime Minister Morrison until Dutton gets his job in a leadership vote in the next few weeks or months. If Morrison or Dutton appoint Tony Abbott as the new Defence Minister this may conceivably cause the Japanese Soryu submarine to be the preferred Australian future submarine type.

2.  Meanwhile if Turnbull resigns his seat of Wentworth in the House of Representatives this month the Liberal-National Coalition may not win a subsequent By Election in Wentworth, in October 2018. The Coalition Government therefore may not retain its 1 seat (76 vs 75) majority in the House of Representatives. This means a General Federal Election may need to be called to occur maybe in early December 2018 but as late as February 2019. 

Such an early Election is likely to be won by the Labor Opposition (with its own priorities on the industrial plan for the new submarine build). A Labor Government would want a higher percentage of submarine build to occur at the Williamstown Dockyard in the mainly Labor State of Victoria, Australia.

If the Coalition Government remains comfortably in power, with a majority in the House of Representatives, then the next General Federal Election will probably be in mid 2019.

Australia changes its Prime Ministers way too often!
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Pete