Winning On The Melbourne Cup (Again)

Pete's horse (Almandin) wins the Melbourne Cup. (Photo courtesy News Corp Australia)

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Those in the know will be aware that Australia's main day, that brings Australians together, is not:

- Australia Day

- nor ANZAC Day

- but Melbourne Cup Day (first Tuesday in November) a horse race watched on TV by most people

   in Australia and many in New Zealand,

So called "gambling luck" in horse racing is more a Skill in choosing horses, based on observing changes in the odds of a given horse winning. If the odds for Horse A become less favourable in the 3 days before a race - and on the day of the race - then Bookmakers have assessed that Horse A is more likely to win.

Basically the Bookmakers (nowdays large betting agencies) know more than me about Horse A's condition - but I can gain some of what Bookmakers know based on how Bookmakers change the published odds.

So today was my third year of choosing the Melbourne Cup winner and a place getter. For Melbourne Cup 2016 I bet on:

- the winner, Almandin (odds dropped quite sharply to 13 to 1), 

- third, Hartnell at (odds stayed the same at 5 or 5.50 to 1)

- and small amounts on 3 losers

Overall I doubled my money. 

Naturally betting on horses has relevance to statistical methods to detect hiding submarines. One thing to watch is changes in the rate of an enemy's signals traffic - a high rate may indicate a crisis involving the enemy's submarine.

"Betting" or Probabilities also has relevance to options and actions for a submarine's weapon use. An enemy SSK may prefer to use its torpedoes or ASCMs before it surfaces - if it is almost running out of oxygen - see Game Theory.

Pete