China's second aircraft carrier, part of an arms race

 China's announced 2 days ago that it is building a second aircraft carrier, This carrier will have a ski-jump carrier like Chinas first carrier (Liaoning) and will weigh in the 50,000 ton class (like Liaoning).

Liaoning itself is classed as a training and testing ship. The second carrier is likely to have a more active, operational, function.

China is quickly constructing at least 3 stationary (island) "aircraft carrier"/naval bases in the South China Sea (mainly on Fiery Cross, Subi and Mischief Reefs) China is constructing mobile aircraft carriers more gradually. China's carrier program is partly in response to a low level carrier arms race in the Asia-Pacific region.

The low level regional carrier arms race involves several countries. The US Navy has superior, developed, 100,000 ton, nuclear propelled, carriers that China cannot match for the short-medium term. But as the US Navy has world-wide responsibilities it may only be able to spare 2 carriers for any crisis in China's northeast Asian region. Such a US force may not have a decisive advantage over Chinese carrier, island based and Chinese mainland based air forces. The US is also concerned about increasing numbers of Chinese land based anti-ship cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.

China's involvement in the carrier arms race is more immediately to equal or match carrier forces of regional powers. These powers include:

-  India with two carriers (INS Vikramaditya and under construction the first of the new Vikrant class)

-  Japan, which has 2 carrier like Izumo class helicopter -"destroyers". With ski-jump modifications the Izumos or a future class may be able to accommodate short takeoff and vertical landing F-35Bs.

-  Australia - significantly its 2 Canberra class landing helicopter docks have ski-jump bows that may facilitate F-35B operations. Clearly the ski-jumps were incorporated into the Canberra designs to give the option (with modifications) to handle any future Australian F-35B's or US F-35Bs or AV-8B Harriers.

Possibly owing to military intelligence tipoffs overt analytical publications became aware of the possible second carrier construction in China's Dalian Shipyard in September 2015. These publications made very accurate predictions (that the second carrier will be a ski-jump carrier like the first (Liaoning) in the 50,000 ton class) in line with China's announcement 2 days ago.

IHS Janes Article

IHS Janes, September 26, 2015 acquired this photo of Dalian shipyard work above. IHS Janes has commented:

"Until it becomes clear whether an angled flight deck is to be installed, it remains possible that the vessel could be either a carrier (CV) or an assault ship (LHA), as a large hangar and flight deck would be a feature of both."

 Airbus Defence and Space acquired some imagery (see yellow rectangle satellite image at top) around September 22, 2015.

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Based on the image within the yellow rectangle and other material IHS Janes, September 28, 2015 analysed/predicted:

"An unidentified hull in an advanced state of construction…China's first indigenous aircraft carrier.

While a conclusive identification of the hull as an aircraft carrier cannot be made until work is observed on the upper decks and potential flight deck, the slow pace of assembly and outline suggests a military hull under construction...beam of about 35 meters. The incomplete bow suggests a length of at least 270 meters for the completed hull."

FURTHER COMMENT FROM PETE

35m and 270m coincides closely with China's first aircraft carrier Liaoning's beam and length at the waterline (w/l). This suggest the second carrier may be the same class as Liaoning.  Under the Rule of Thirds (third of the carrier force ready for operations) a third Chinese ski-jump carrier may be constructed, perhaps around 2020.

It seems that Chinese Government could not or chose not to hide the second carrier under construction. Likewise China cannot hide construction of the 3 stationary island "aircraft carriers" in the South China Sea. This overt show of growing military capability might be seen as a Chinese challenge to the US dominated alliance system (of US alliances with Southeast Asian nations, Japan, Taiwan, Australia and South Korea). China may be right in calculating that the US alliance can effectively do little about China's rising strength.

It may be that the recent downturn in Chinese economic growth may adversely effect China's naval (including carrier) building program. But China's economic growth and national military objectives are hard to predict.

Pete