Putin's Future Black Sea NUCLEAR Warning Explosion?

Putin may react against the US decision to permit Ukraine to fire ATACMs missiles [1] onto targets in Russia in the following way.

Putin may stage a low yield nuclear warning (atmospheric or on sea) explosion over international Black Sea air-sea space to scare the international community. The yield may be less than 100 tons (ie. < 0.1 kiloton) using a very small existing or newly developed warhead. Delivery means might be many and varied, eg. a suitcase nuke [2] (with parachute) dropped out of a helicopter, transport plane, boat or conventional submarine or within an aerial, sea surface or under sea drone or a missile warhead.

There might be no casualties. 

The objective would be to shock the world, including the US, in preparation for the Trump brokered post January 20, 2025 Ukraine-Russia Peace Treaty.

Ukraine, the US and broader NATO would be more willing to avoid the threat of a seemingly unhinged Putin ushering in a regional nuclear war by giving in to Putin’s territorial and other demands. 

Proposed Historical Precedent

Note that in the runup to the 1945 nuclear explosions against Japan a non-combat demonstration explosion was considered [3].

[1]  https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/11/19/russia-warns-ukraines-atacms-attacks-mark-new-phase-of-war

[2]  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suitcase_nuclear_device

[3]  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki#Proposed_demonstration

Pop-Up Sandy Ridge Nuclear Waste Dump. Another for Osborne, Adelaide.

Western Australia now hosts a massive low level nuclear waste dump few have heard of. Its called Sandy Ridge, created after paid-for secret agreements with interest groups, including some Aboriginal groups. More see https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-06/nuclear-waste-sandy-ridge-facility-tellus-holdings-aukus/104130550

(Photo above courtesy ABC News, just part of the Sandy Ridge facility)
For decades federal and state governments have tried to find a place to store low-level radioactive waste and failed. Now private company, Tellus Holdings, has quietly amassed 100,000 tonnes of low-level radioactive and chemical waste stored in the Western Australian outback at very isolated Sandy Ridge. (Photo below courtesy The West Australian - broad shot of the whole Sandy Ridge facility).

Maps above and clearer on Tellus PDF below. Sandy Ridge may be about 150km by helicopter ENE of Kalgoorlie, Western Australia. Or may be more than 3 hours and 200+kms by reliable 4WD east via the Great Eastern Highway from Kalgoorlie or out to blazes from Perth. See clearer image of MAPs on pages 3 and 8 of Tellus Holdings' PDF document at https://www.gemg.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/52018-Sandy-Ridge-%E2%80%93-Australia%E2%80%99s-First-Dual-Revenue-Near-Surface-Geological-Repository.pdf

Separately in Adelaide

Today it was announced Federal parliament has passed legislation that allows for low level nuclear waste to be stored and disposed of at Osborne shipyard in northeast sleepy Adelaide. Residents said they were not consulted or told of the plan. Our AUKUS robot AlboGov (encouraged by his cheerful UK reps :) said the dump is going ahead whatever local plebs think or fear. See https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-18/aukus-nuclear-waste-to-be-stored-adelaide-suburbs/104605640

An Australia-China military alliance?!

1. Is seeing Trump’s good side like kicking a puppy into orbit? He’s decisive, scares the sh-t out of enemies and also friends. He's anti woke. His lifestyle, wealth, values and trophy wife all represent what red blooded, gun totin, American men aspire to. True or false? Meanwhile “Trump’s a village idiot” Ambassador KRudd may be planning a new job fast?

2. Higher populations and increased living standards in the developing world are steadily increasing hydrocarbon use. This means our climate change measures are wasted. At climate conferences developing countries are asking for US$1.3 Trillion in hand outs (not loans) as compensation and to somehow lessen their hydrocarbon use. Many Tesla wanter leaders are corrupt. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-talks-urged-find-1-trillion-year-poorer-countries-2024-11-14/ But more developing country cars and motorbikes all rely on hydrocarbons. Or electric vehicle factories are high energy use. Doom?

3.Trump is appointing Robert F. Kennedy Jr head of the US Federal Health empire. This covers public health policies like vaccines, food, medications, Medicare and fluoride. Australia’s TGA likes to adhere to US FDA rules and standards. This will set hares running in Australian public health. eg There’s always “fluoride is poison” drongos in Australia who write to any distant council or town considering fluoride.

4. The US withdrawing from the Paris climate change agreement would see a boost in US oil, gas and coal (hydrocarbon) production. Australia under Dutton from May next year might compete by permitting higher extraction of Australian hydrocarbons. Transport costs would go down. Also under Trump’s Ukraine War “Peace” Treaty would free up currently sanctioned /blocked Russian oil/gas to flow back into the world energy market. More hydrocarbons extracted worldwide would lower the cost of living in Australia, across the board.

5. On 15 November AUKUS robot AlboGov (term coined here first) announced details of Labor’s electoral reform bill. This includes imposing a $20,000 cap on individual donations and an $800,000 cap on spending per electorate. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/nov/15/labor-and-coalition-accused-of-cooking-up-secret-deal-to-rig-electoral-rules-with-new-bill Independents have accused AlboGov of attempting to “rig” electoral rules in a “major party stitch-up” against the Greens and independents. Meanwhile any party in power or in Opposition uses policy announcements as election advertising.

6. If Trump’s US imposed a 30+% tariff against Australian exports might this be good for Australia to make up our minds to end reliance on the US? In 2023, China accounted for 41% of Australia's total exports. Japan was 12%, South Korea 7%, India 5.5%, US only 4.3%  https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/exports-by-country. How about our alliance with the US? Does it merely drag Australia into far off US led wars?

Maybe Australia should forge a military alliance with main trade partner China. Could ex Prime Minister Keating negotiate this monumental pivot? 😅

7. Good News British novelist Samantha Harvey has been awarded the 2024 Booker Prize for her novel Orbital. “Its written through the perspectives of real-life astronauts” (many of whom are ex fighter pilots). Harvey dedicated her victory to world peace and no doubt Bambi. 

NO UK Astutes Likely to "Rotate" Through Fleet Base West

Here is Gessler’s first comment above the ++++ of Nov 7, 2024 

"I wonder if the 'alternative' proposals listed in the Congressional Research Service (CRS) report mentioned in one of your previous articles (linked below) would find traction under a Trump administration. Namely, the one that calls for the Virginia-class SSNs meant to be sold to Australia instead being owned & operated by the US Navy itself...while SSN-AUKUS program proceeds in parallel with the UK.

https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/02/would-be-ssn-countries-us-rejected.html

It's also possible that Trump will instead argue in favour of building the AUKUS boats in the US itself (perhaps based on SSN-X instead of UK's SSN-R design) in an attempt to create more jobs for American workers & yards while promising to deliver each boat to USN & RAN at a cheaper price instead (as the cost per boat would naturally go down if the number of SSNX hulls increase, plus the cost of building all-new nuclear submarine infrastructure in Australia would no longer be a factor).

Remains to be seen what Trump will do with AUKUS."

To which Pete2 replied:

I think Trump might be guided by US Navy insistence that the USN needs ALL the the Virginia SSNs operational now (ie. no second hand SSNs for Australia) AND USN needs all the new Virginia's. 

This does not preclude Australia getting a clapped-out, Los Angeles-class moored  SSN for immobile training use at Fleet Base West, Western Australia. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moored_training_ships like USS La Jolla (SSN-701) and USS San Francisco (SSN-711)

Regarding "Virginia-class SSNs meant to be sold to Australia instead being owned & operated by the US Navy itself." This is in some respects what is planned for the maybe half US/UK squadron sized "Submarine Rotational Force (SRF-West) " maybe from as early as 2027. The US and maybe UK may provide this force at HMAS Stirling (Fleet Base West).

-  One sub may be a UK Astute. Although the UK RN is already facing severe crew shortages even for those Astutes meant to meet the UK's own Atlantic-Arctic oceans - Mediterranean needs. However, on occasions when an Astute operates in the Persian Gulf - Arabian Sea - Indian Ocean area Australia may get a port visit once every 2 - 3 years. Three years may already be the pattern with Astutes and earlier UK Trafalgar-class SSN visits.  Also see other factors minimising Astute squadron  readiness https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/the-royal-navys-submarine-readiness-issue/

The main hope therefore is one or two US Virginia SSNs (rotated) ie. forward based at Fleet Base West from about 2027 to 2036 when Australia might receive its first purchased Virginia. See https://www.asa.gov.au/projects/submarine-rotational-force-west-infrastructure-project 
and https://www.defence.gov.au/about/locations-property/infrastructure-projects/submarine-rotational-force-west-infrastructure-project

The downside for Australia relying on US crewed Virginias through to 2036 is they will  be used to meet US national interests. These may note coincide with Australian national interests. This is especially if the US decides on a war with Australia's largest trading partner (and 2008 GFC saviour) China - a war that Australia's doesn't want to Coalition of the Willing participate in.

In fact I think it unlikely the US will sell ANY used or new Virginias to Aus in the 2030s due to the critical short-medium-long term shortage of SSNs even for sole USN use.

The Virginias (through to Block VIIIs) and US specialized SSN(X)s can/will only be built in the US. The UK-Aus specialized SSN-AUKUSs can only be fully designed built and tested first in the UK (from the late 2030s).

I think the SSN-AUKUS with the US combat system (integrated by Lockheed Martin) can then be laid down in Australia about 2040, but they will only be completed in the mid 2040s. See https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-au/products/systems-integration/maritime-systems-integration-undersea.html

Trump's Past Pro-Japan, SK Nuclear Weapons Position

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_nuclear_weapons_program#De_facto_nuclear_state advises:

"On 29 March 2016, then-U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump suggested that Japan should develop its own nuclear weapons, claiming that it was becoming too expensive for the US to continue to protect Japan from countries such as China, North Korea, and Russia that already have their own nuclear weapons.^[50]

[endnote 50 is]

https://web.archive.org/web/20190611080231/https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-japan-south-korea-might-need-nuclear-weapons/

"Donald Trump: Japan, South Korea might need nuclear weapons

By Stephanie Condon

March 29, 2016 / CBS News

Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump on Tuesday night defended his assertion that more countries, such as Japan, South Korea or even Saudi Arabia, may need to develop their own nuclear weapons.

"You have so many countries already -- China, Pakistan, you have so many countries, Russia -- you have so many countries right now that have them," Trump said in a Milwaukee, Wisconsin town hall televised by CNN. "Now, wouldn't you rather, in a certain sense, have Japan have nuclear weapons when North Korea has nuclear weapons?"

Trump said that the United States spends too much money protecting countries like Japan and Saudi Arabia, but "we can't afford to do it anymore."

CNN moderator Anderson Cooper pointed out that it's been U.S. policy for decades to prevent Japan from getting a nuclear weapon. Trump responded, "Maybe it's going to have to be time to change, because so many people -- you have Pakistan has it, you have China has it. You have so many other countries are now having it."

Trump similarly suggested that Japan and South Korea should develop nuclear weaponry in an interview with the New York Times last week.

Following Trump's remarks to the Times, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga told reporters that his nation remains steadfastly against owning, making or allowing nuclear weapons. He said this position will "remain an important basic policy of the government."

Trump said he's in favor of potentially seeing countries like Japan develop nuclear weapons because "it's going to happen anyway."

"It's only a question of time," he said. "They're going to start having them or we have to get rid of them entirely.""

On 27 February 2022, former prime minister Shinzo Abe proposed that Japan should consider a nuclear sharing arrangement with the US similar to NATO.^[51] This includes housing American nuclear weapons on Japanese soil for deterrence.^[51] This plan comes in the wake of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.^[51][52] Many Japanese politicians consider Vladimir Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear state to be a game changer.^[52] "

Australia's Trump Era SSN & SSK Choices: Revised

Responding to Scott's at 11/07/2024 12:11 AM comment:

President elect Trump sees himself as a tough, business savvy, negotiator. He does not respect international alliances, even NATO. 

The US Navy is increasingly (and secretly) advising that US industry (eg. principal Virginia SSN builders GDEB and HII) is failing to produce, repair or overhaul sufficient Virginias for USN needs in the 2020s through to the 2040s. Trump may well see AUKUS future Virginia submarines for Australia as a weak Biden Democrat deal [1]. If so Trump might cancel that deal or sharply increase the Virginia sales price to be paid by Australia.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS#Australia%E2%80%93UK%E2%80%93US_negotiations

Anticipating the danger of a Trump cancellation of the Virginia offer, the super secretive Australian Submarine Agency likely has a Fall-back Options Planning Section. This section is probably thinking along the following lines:

Even if Trump cancelled the Virginia class offer it is unlikely the US would prevent the UK supplying SSN AUKUSs (which will have US combat system technology integrated by Lockheed Martin) to Australia. There is too much cash for the declining UK economy at stake. Therefore the UK would exert its still considerable political influence on the US to make the SSN AUKUS offer stand. 

On French SSNs and SK SSK/SSBs:

China is certainly unhappy (and India possibly) with any SSNs being supplied to Australia. There are many reasons why France would hesitate to provide  Barracuda/Suffren SSNs to Australia.

-  One being France rates trade and (Indian and Pacific oceans) strategic vulnerability from China higher than trade with Australia.

-  Also until the early 2040s France's limited nuc sub sector is fully committed supplying the remaining Suffrens and the 4 x third generation SSBNs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNLE_3G to the French Navy. This is to the exclusion of multi-SSN foreign orders. 

-  Australia was also unimpressed with France's nuc subs for the French Navy first priorities expressed by France in 2021. French Navy priorities were to come first before the delayed Australians Attack-class program was fully tackled some time in the 2030s. On those French priorities see my https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2021/02/frances-new-ssbn-aus-attack-class-2nd.html

I don't think the South Korean (SK) KSS-III, with its heavy K-VLS SLBM loadout , is suitable for Australia's strategic circumstances. The PRC target is too far for slow, medium range, KSS-IIIs (compared to fast, long range, SSNs) to sail from Fleet Base West to within (future Australian nuclear missile) striking distance of PRC coastal targets.

However if SK industry, in SK, in under 10 years, could build standard SSKs, like the DSME-3000 (which is not burdened by K-VLS silos and has AIP and LIBs) then it may be a good and time sensitive replacement for the Collins. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KSS-III_submarine#DSME-3000 .

The Virginias for Australia were never to be built in Australia, so SSKs, like the DSME-3000, need not be built in Australia. Submarine building in Australia (ie. at Osborne, Adelaide) typically takes 3 times as long at 3 times the price.