February 19, 2020

French, Russian, Israeli to India Nuclear Weapons Sharing

Further to February 17-18, 2020 comments:

As I wrote in 2012 "It is likely India would seek (has received) cold and hot test results - most probably from Russia and perhaps from France and Israel (noting Indo-Israeli joint tests of nuclear (intended) missiles)."

Over the years I have commented on Submarine Matters that:

- as Russia definitely helped India with the INS Arihant reactor, and

- as India paid such high prices for the Chakra II/Nerpa refurbishment and conversion of the
  INS Vikramaditya carrier

in return the Russians assisted India with several aspects of Agni series, K-4 technology including MIRVing and Russian 2 stage "thermonuclear test results and perhaps designs".

Israeli nuclear and India

It is widely accepted that US intelligence sensors detected an Indian and Israeli nuclear missile test in the Indian Ocean in 2002.

"Popeye Turbo" is a cover name that could apply to a cruise missile, ballistic missile or a "2 stage" combination of turbojet then a rocket assisted Mach 3 end run.

France and Israel

France supplied the Jericho I technology, Dimona reactor and Plutonium reprocessing construction to Israel. Details could have been passed on to India. French MIRV technology could have then passed to Israel for Jerichos II and III and then passed to India.

According to (then serving) Lieutenant Colonel Warner D. Farr, in his 1999 report https://fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/nuke/farr.htm to the USAF Counterproliferation Center:

"Progress in nuclear science and technology in France and Israel remained closely linked throughout the early fifties." Furthermore, according to Farr, "There were several Israeli observers at the French [1960s] nuclear tests and the Israelis had 'unrestricted access to French nuclear test explosion data.[6]”

As French and Israeli (and some Jewish diaspora scientists working for third countries) nuclear weapon research has always been a 2 way informational deal there is no particular reason French 2 stage fusion details stopped going to Israel in the 1960s.

Additional 2 stage details continued (may well continue) and Israeli passage of some to India is a possibility.

Alot to take in.

Pete

3 comments:

ghalibkabir said...

I doubt the relationship is/was that deep. I agree India and France , India- Russia enjoy great relations. I am not being uncharitable on that count at all.

But MIRV designs or stage 2 thermonuke designs passage to India is a step too far and does not square up with the actual record of 'show how' and 'make it work yourselves' advice given by Russia (on the SSBN program in particular)

I think there is a big chasm between a consulting 'show how' project and blatantly handing over actual test results which I think is incorrect considering the struggles DRDO is going through on MIRVing...again, it comes down, I think, to the fact that there is a material difference between teaching to cold launch a K-4 and providing full thermonuke test data with stage 2 design for an SLBM warhead to DRDO.

The former is 'sort of' tolerable given India is a MTCR member now and all that jazz... the latter is a clear breach of NSG/NPT guidelines and would likely raise hackles

The Israelis are a different case compared to India and hence it is much easier to envisage them gaining untrammeled access to French test data as uncle Sam looked the other way.

Arpit Kanodia said...

Replying to ghalibkabir from previous thread-

The reason of my openness is because, from what I know, almost all P5 nations know about this deal.

But no one can prove it in court of law, there is no money trail like it existed in AQ Khan network.


Furthur, again from what I know , some time in future Indian Govt start to leak info (when we achieve enough numbers of warhead or when MIRV get operationalized) about such things to let know the adversary about capabilities.

steve said...

All three of those countries like to see themselves as 'somewhat' separate.

And we mustn't forget that little club had another member once........

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vela_incident