Russia set to unleash carrier aircraft and SLCMs on IS in Syria

COMMENT

In defiance of Western criticism of Russia’s air war over Syria President Putin is assembling a small armada (fleet) of Russia's only carrier, cruise missile firing ships and submarines to demonstrate that the Russian navy is again becoming a powerful force. Russia’s land based aircraft and missile forces in the Syrian region are already sufficient to attack Islamist rebels. But Russian inter-service rivalry demands (and other reasons - see FURTHER COMMENTS below) the Russian Navy also gets to demonstrate its land attack abilities.

Western forces have had long histories of three or four services (army, navy, airforce and marines) jockeying for position to get the lion's share of elective warfighting. Hence all services in UK and US forces in the Middle East's First and Second Gulf Wars wanted to serve there, no matter the iinefficiencies. 

Now Putin wants all to know its Russia’s turn to show what it can do in the Middle East. Western powers resent Russia's new presence in the Middle East. A particular concern is that Russia, as the second largest oil exporter, should not also have large military forces right next to the world's major oil exporter, Saudi Arabia.

RUSSIA ASSEMBLING LAND ATTACK WEAPONS FROM THE SEA

In late October 30, 2016 UK authorities were advised by Russia that it was sending three submarines  from north to south through the Irish Sea (between the UK and Ireland). These subs were from Russia's Northern Fleet, based in the Murmansk region. The subs may have stayed on the surface (in “innocent passage” mode) through the busy Irish Sea, to prevent collisions with ships, boats, rocks, avoid fishing nets and to avoid revealing submerged operational secrets to snooping UK ASW forces. 

The three subs consisted of two Akula SSNs  and one Kilo SSK. The Akulas and the Kilo can all fire Kalibr (3M14K variants) submarine launched land attack cruise missiles (SLCMs) through their horizontal torpedo tubes. They have no vertical launch tubes that I know of.

A sea baseed Kalibr land attack missile see the 3M14K (different reference) which may be approaching the performance of the US Tomahawk SLCM.

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The blue arrow points to Tartus (Syria) Russia's only foreign naval base. A Russian fleet may tend to operate just offshore from Latakia (up the coast from Tartus) to be in closer carrier aircraft range to key targets (Aleppo and Islamic State HQ at Ar Raqqah). (Map courtesy Hashmonean). 

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The subs are on their way to join the Russian Admiral Kuznetsov carrier group which is on station in the Mediterranean Sea, perhaps ready to strike IS in Aleppo or Raqqa, Syria. The group consists of the heavy nuclear propelled (and armed) missile cruiser Peter the Great, large destroyers/frigates Severomorsk and Vice-Admiral Kulakov and smaller maintenance vessels. 

No-one, this side of military intelligence agencies, would know what the Russian strike plans are. This is talking carrier aircraft dropping bombs and cruise missiles from the Russian subs. Also, in early October, it was reported that three small missile corvettes (Mirazh, Serpukhov and Zeleniy Dol), armed with Kalibr cruise missiles, had left Black Sea Fleet anchorages, with an expectation they were sailing into the Mediterranean for missile strikes on Syria (and accompanying the Kuznetsov group). 

All of these Russian vessels can get missile and bomb reloads from Russia’s Tartus naval, air and sigint base on Syria’s coast (see map above). The Syrian targets could include Islamic State, the Free Syrian Army,  al Nusra or other Islamist groups.

As stated in COMMENTS (above) for Russia to lay high explosive on Syrian targets the Admiral Kuznetsov carrier group is not really needed. Ground attack aircraft already operate from air bases in the Tartus base region and long range Russian heavy bombers have been operating from Russia and reportedly Iran to hit targets in Syria. Russia also has short to medium range surface-to-surface missiles.

FURTHER COMMENTS

The reasons Russia wants to project land attack firepower from the sea then falls to:

1.  inter-service rivalries

2.  propaganda, showing Russia's/Putin's rising military might, 

3.  weapons testing under real operational conditions. Russian testing of its Kalibrs has not
     yet been fully refined. Russia has never used its carrier aircraft to drop ordinance on an enemy.

4.  the West has naval might in the region, so Russia, to a limited degree, wants to match this.

5.  Russian ship and submarine intelligence collection on Western naval forces, and

6.  Russia wants to demonstrate it has legitimate interests, that it will service militarily, in the
     Middle East.

Please connect this with Submarine Matters article Russian carrier Admiral Kuznetsov may conduct first airstrikes (against IS) of October 17, 2016.

Pete

Russian Missiles Aimed at IS Targets in Syria - but 4 crash in Iran

Artist's impression of a Klub (NATO designation "Sizzler", Russians oftern call it "Kalibr") missile probably being used in anti-shipping mode. It may also fly low, below radar detection, in land attack mode. As Islamic State probably has no anti-missile defences the Russian Klub's fired overnight would have mainly flown high to maximise their range.

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It appears that 4 of the missiles Russia aimed at Syria actually crashed in Iran. Iran and Russia have not admitted the full extent of Putin's failure.

Several hours ago a force of four Russian ships in the Caspian Sea fired 26 cruise missiles 1,500 km to hit 11 Islamic State targets in Syria. The ships were the Gepard class frigate Dagestan and Bauyan-M class corvettes, Grad Sviyazhsk, Uglich and Veliky Ustyug. The missiles they launched from their VLS were Klubs.

This is Russia's first use of modern cruise missiles for land attack that I know of. The missiles were surface ship fired Klub land attack missiles. Similar submarine fired Klubs are owned by India and Vietnam and used in their Kilo subs.

The Klubs used are capable of hitting a target within 3 meters at a range of up to 2,500 km (according to RT). Actual variant of the Klub could be the land attack surface launched "3M-14T - DOD designation SS-N-30A"

The firing of the Klubs a day ago represent a Russian gesture that Russia is now a major player in Middle East interventionist, power politics. The US, with its presumption that it controls how interventions go, is unnerved by the rapid escalation of Russian military force in the hithertoo US dominated Middle East. 

Only a week ago it was the beginning of Russian fighter-bomber airstrikes over Syria. Now it is regional missile overflights - overflying the US client state of Iraq. Russia flying missiles over oil important Iran and Iraq presents quite a geo-political-economic headache for the US. 

Russia is very much aligning itself with religiously Shiite (Islamic) dominated Iran, Assad's Syria and Iraq. This unnerves the Sunni (Islamic) states that the US protects, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE and also Turkey (a country less religious but still mainly Sunni). Meanwhile Israel may welcome Russia providing support to Assad's rule in Syria. Even though Israel doesn't like Assad Israel would see the anarchy of terrorist groups (including IS) "ruling" Syria as worse than Assad.

Russian warships launching Klub cruise missiles.
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The missiles were launched from the Caspian Sea. Russia already had permission from Iran and Iraq to overfly their territory. The Assad government was pre-briefed by Russia about the missile strikes on IS. (Map courtesy RT)
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Airstrikes by Russia and the US coalition as at October 5, 2015. Note both Russia and the US have targeted the IS headquarters at Raqqa and IS near Aleppo.  (Map courtesy BBC).

Pete

Russian carrier Admiral Kuznetsov may conduct first airstrikes (against IS).

Russian carrier Admiral Kuznetsov (above) may be conducting airstrikes against Islamic State as early as November this year (2016).

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COMMENT

If Russia's Admiral Kuznetsov becomes operational against an enemy this will be a first for Russian carriers. In Russia's/Soviet Unions entire naval history its aircraft carriers have never operated in a shooting war (ie. using aerial canon, missiles or bombs against an enemy). 

In terms of battles with then "modern" battleships Russia's last and only battle was the Battle of Tsushima - a huge defeat for Russia in 1905.  

SPUTNIK ARTICLE

Drawing from a October 15, 2016 Sputnik news report:

Russia’s only strike carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, part of Russia’s Northern Fleet, will enter the eastern Mediterranean, late October/early November 2016, for operations off Syria. It may conduct airstrikes against Islamic State (in Syria) and/or the Free Syrian Army. Aircraft aboard  Kuznetsov include Su-33’s and MiG-29K’s all modified for ground attack.

Kuznetsov also carries helicopters and is fitted with anti-air and anti-ship missiles. It displaces 60,000 tons and has a crew (including airwing) of 2,000.

Separately, more Russian Kalibr missile strikes on Islamic State may occur in late 2016. In early October it was reported that three small missile corvettes (Mirazh, Serpukhov and Zeleniy Dol), armed with Kalibr cruise missiles, had left Black Sea Fleet anchorages, with an expectation of missile strikes in Syria.

Pete

Putin's Submarine Cruise Missile Party

 Its suspicious, in this Youtube footage, why the camera is so far from the launches. The footage in the above Youtube and this one - (freeze video frame at 6 seconds) seems to show that the submarine is firing the Kalibr-PL cruise missiles while surfaced! If so this is not a true submerged submarine launch achieved by US SSNs or SSGNs or UK SSNs.
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Putin, on December 8, 2015, has gone to the trouble of launching Kalibr cruise missiles from improved Kilo class submarine Rostov-on-Don for a variety of reasons:

-  testing is an addition way to launch cruise missiles under operational conditions. Putin could have launched the Kalibrs by surface ship or ground launched but chose submarine launched because the opportunity presented and because it would be noticed.

-  Russia could have used the existing method of fighter-bombers dropping bombs on the targets in Syria. In that sense perhaps the submarine launch is a form of protest against Turkey shooting down a Russian fighter-bomber on November 24, 2015.

-  using weapons under operational conditions irons out technical bugs, organisational chain of command and targetting bugs and reveals any technical upgrades/capabilities that may be necessary.

-  the submarine launch event would be noticed by the Russian public and military/intelligence establishment who still seek vengeance for the IS organised downing of the Russian airliner (Oct 31, 2015)

-  and noticed by the Western military and potential customers for Kalibrs (with a range exceeding the MTCR) or MTCR compliant (not exceeding 300 km range Klub-S 3M-14E - DOD SS-N-30B's). 

-  Putin wants the Russian military to be respected by the West as a modern, efficient military.

-  as the Western military have been surface and submarine launching Tomahawk cruise missiles against Middle East targets since 1991 Russia needs to be seen to have the same right. Russia wants to be seen as a legitimate World Policemen in the same way as the US sees itself.

-  It is suspicious why the camera is so far from the launches. The footage in the above Youtube and this one - (freeze video frame at 6 seconds) seems to show that the submarine is firing the missiles while surfaced. If so this is not a true submerged submarine launch. Note that Russian reports - including Putin's organ RT don't mention "submerged" launching.

-  It is a propaganda/PR victory as was Russia's earlier highly publicised cruise missile launches by Caspian Sea ships (Oct 7, 2015). Obama does not appear willing to highlight missiles strikes by the US or its Western allies in the Middle East - thus Western propaganda opportunities are lost. Obama's relatively peaceful moderation wins him few friends.

-  According to a combined report from the major agencies of the US intelligence community (CIA, NSA and DIA) the coalition is losing in its war against ISIS. It is understood Obama doesn't want to be seen as a Dubya-like warmaker but Obama aims to leave office in February 2017 with his moderate-liberal reputation intact. Obama's scrupulously clean Presidency may be at the expense of losing ground to terrorism. Obama needs to look beyond his reputation and beyond the countdown to his exit. Obama need not go down in history as too much like fellow lame duck Democrat Jimmy Carter.

-  For the planners of the future Australian submarine the firing of cruise missiles from a potential enemy SSK stands as a further reason that Australian future subs should be fitted from the beginning with Tomahawk cruise missiles rather than being retrofitted or on a "for but not with" basis. Note that SSKs of other countries in Australia's region (ie. Vietnam, China and India) also have land attack capable cruise missiles fitted (or about to be).

The Rostov-on-Don Improved Kilo Class submarine has fired the first missiles (Kalibr cruise missiles on December 8, 2015) "in anger" of any Russian (or preceding Soviet) submarine. (Photo courtesy Vitaliy Ankov/Sputnik via RT).

Pete

Tomahawk Cruise Missiles and Friends Hitting ISIS

All the recent interest in the Russian Kalibr forgets the West's much longer history of hitting insurgents and conventional armies with Tomahawk cruise missiles. Not only missiles but ground attack aircraft like the A-10 Warthog (below).

US Navy warships USS Philippine Sea and USS Arleigh Burke launch Tomahawk missiles on ISIS targets in Syria in 2014. USS Philippine Sea is a Flight II Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser and USS Arleigh Burke is the lead ship of the Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers.

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The Tomahawk is not alone. There is also the UK-European Storm Shadow, US AGM-86 and more advanced hypersonic missiles in the works.

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Interesting background on the Tomahawk cruise missile. It has been in service since 1983 and in wars since 1991 - decades before the Russian Kalibr. A cruise missile is guided using several systems, the major portion of whose flight path to its target (a land-based or sea-based target) is conducted at approximately constant velocity; that relies on the dynamic reaction of air for lift, and upon propulsion forces to balance drag. 

Cruise missiles are designed to deliver a large warhead over long distances with high accuracy. Modern cruise missiles can travel at supersonic or high subsonic speeds, are self-navigating, and can fly on a non-ballistic, extremely low altitude trajectory. 
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The A-10 "Warthog" is ugly but effective. In September 2014, the USAF A-10 strike wing revealed it would be deploying to the Middle East in the next month, which includes 12 of the unit's 21 A-10 aircraft. The timing coincided with the ongoing US airstrike campaign against ISIS. Since mid-November 2014, US commanders began sending A-10s to hit IS targets in central and northwestern Iraq on an almost daily basis.

The A-10 Warthog, 30 mm rotary cannon, over Iraq and Syria against ISIS.

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Pete

Russian ship and submarine cruise missiles fired at IS in Syria (footage)

Six Kalibr missiles were reportedly fired at Islamic State in Syria on June 23, 2017 from 2 Russian warships and a submarine. This latest spectacular Russian salvo allegedly hit IS command posts and large weapons caches in the Syrian eastern province of Hama. 

Russian cruise missile launches are viewed by the US as threatening the US' rightful dominance over the Middle East. Put another way the missiles landed too close to the US' regional oil producing client states - Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, even Iraq, as well as US bases.

Pete

DCNS Unlikely to Win India's Next 6 x SSK order...maybe.

As Russia wishes to sell 6 submarines to India (for Project-75(i)) Russia's Sputnik News, August 12, 2016, has been quick to report that:

 "French Firm DCNS Fails to Find Takers in India for Its AIPS Technology"

"Sources from India's Ministry of Defense say that the AIPS technology proposed by the DCNS is similar to what is being used in Scorpene class submarines.

NEW DELHI (Sputnik) — In what could be a major setback to French naval ship-building company DCNS, its proposal to set up a 100% Indian subsidiary for manufacturing air-independent propulsion systems (AIPS) for submarines is likely to be rejected by the Indian government.

Amit Cowshish, former financial adviser to the Ministry of Defense says, "They (DCNS) are offering something which is already available in India." The Defense Research Development Organization is already developing AIPs in collaboration with DCNS for Scorpene class submarines...." SEE WHOLE SPUTNIK ARTICLE

COMMENTS

This may initially effect the existing Scorpene "Kalvari" class contract that DCNS has with India. DCNS won the Kalvari contract in 2005 to build 6 (non-AIP) Scorpenes for the Indian Navy. AIP is now relevant because India subsequently indicated that the last 2 Kalvaris would have AIP. India's DRDO has maintained that it can supply the AIP, but this is highly ambitious.

It would then mainly fall to DCNS to organise the AIP for the last 2 Kalvaris. But India seems to be playing hardball. France may have offered an updated version of its existing AIP called MESMA. MESMA has been installed in 3 of Pakistan's DCNS designed Agosta 90Bs (Khalid class)  subs, not in anyone's Scorpenes (so far).

I suspect that India is really holding out for the advanced Reformer/Fuel cell AIP that DCNS may be working on.

This impasse in the already delayed Kalvari program not only effects the last 2 Scorpene Kalvaris. India and DCNS both know that India will (sooner or later) be selecting a winning tenderer for
 Project 75(i) class submarines. This is for 6 further, specifically AIP submarines. India also wants them to feature VLS for a number of India's touted supersonic Brahmos cruise missiles.

The ability to provide AIP and VLS is a tall order. Only Sweden's Kockums, Germany's TKMS and DCNS offer developed AIP (China is virtually India's enemy - so it has no hope of offering anything).

There are no countries/companies fitting VLS on production SSKs (that I know of). Kalibr SLCMs fired by the Kilo Rostov-on-Don's missile launching (on IS in Syria Dec 2015) very likely were through its horizontal torpedo tubes. This is also noting India's Kilos have been fitted to fire Klub missiles through their torpedo tubes.

So India, by rejecting France's AIP, at this stage will tend to pressure DCNS to make a low price  offer for the 6 future Project-75(i) submarines AND/OR France may be prepared to transfer more technology specifically advanced AIP to India.

RUSSIA AND AIP

Russia has had a great deal of trouble developing AIP (no working AIP I know of so far). India is well known to work closely with Russia on advanced submarine technologies . So if India acquired advanced AIP technology from anyone Russia may benefit and be eternally grateful... India typically stops-starts-stops on arms purchases (as France also recalls concerning the MRCA jet competition).

What might result is that advanced AIP is imprudently supplied to India - it finds its way to Russia - then Russia installs this advanced AIP and VLS into new 6 new Kilo / Amur / or Kalina class subs that Russia sells to India for Project-75(i).

SCORPENE BACKGROUND

What is making DCNS particularly hungry to sell Scorpenes is the low revenue turnover not only for the  Kalvari Program (signed in 2005 but only 1 sub produced so far) but also the Brazilian Scorpene program (no subs produced (ie. launched) since the 2009 commencement. See Table below

Scorpene SSKs (14 ordered)	First Sub Laid Down	Last Sub Commissioned	9 still building
2 built	1999 O’Higgins Chile	2006	No
2 built	2004 KDs...) Malaysia	2009	No
1 launched so far	2009 INS Kalvari India	2016 (maybe)  (1 so far)	5 x Kalvaris 1 per year
none completed so far	2010 SBR-1 Brazil	2020 (maybe, SBR-1)	4 x SBRs (1 per year)

Low revenue from Scorpenes also likely made DCNS all the more competitive on price and technology transfer in the Shortfin bid for Australia’s future submarine competition.

India's non-aligned status, and rising wealth, helps make it a shrewd and unpredictable arms buyer.

CORROBORATING COMMENTARY

Here's interesting corroborating commentary of August 19, 2016 regarding another stalled weapons' purchase: 

“Back in 2006 the Indian Air Force decided to buy six Airbus A330 MRTT…The Indian military procurement is notorious for its unpredictability, indecisiveness and sluggishness…Ironically there is less political opposition to inferior Russian weapons and equipment in part because the Russians are much less likely to expose corruption…”

Pete

Russia's Improved Kilo II Submarine (Project 636.3)

Russia's original (Project 877) Kilo subs have been operating since 1980.

But the newest sub-class is the Improved Kilo II, Project 636.3. The Improved Kilo II first entered service in 2013 and is being supplied to the Russian Navy only.

The indomitable "Jive Turkey" presents a clear, well-paced, Youtube description of Improved Kilo II Project 636.6 at https://youtu.be/OIpILOFfnYM and below

Highlights of this August 2019 Youtube (usefully seen in conjunction with this list) include:

1:43 - First of class, B-261, was laid down in 2010 in St Petersburg

4:42 - list of weapons carried

5:27 - Russians are clever in the way they load torpedoes from outside through 2 torpedo tubes in the
           bow

6:02 - uses an advanced (for Russia) Lama-EKM combat system

7:10 - Rubicon-M Sonar System with details (search for Rubicon-M in this very comprehensive article
          here)

8:15 - speed, test depth, noise "117 DB AT 1/YARD" ("Jive" doesn't reveal how decibels (DB) were
          determined from 1 yard of  B-261)

8:50 - first use of Kalibr land attack missiles (against Syria) from Improved Kilo II "B-237"

9:14 - Russia's Black Sea Fleet has received its 6 Improved Kilo IIs and then the Pacific Fleet
          (see table). 

Advantages of Vertical Launch Systems (VLS) for Ships.

Standard SM-6 missiles vertically launched. Serious flames - Made in the USA.
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Russia has developed coffin launchers for many ship sizes over many decades. But Russia has now succumbed to superior Western vertical launch technology. Russian and Chinese reverse engineering being the highest form of flattery.

For example here are some of Russia's old coffin launchers in action on small early model Molniya class corvettes https://youtu.be/8UAPGBcPY80?t=2m44s (missile demo ends at 3 minutes). 

Russian coffin launched missiles appear semi-aimed. They are fired with considerable momentum. This may involve the whole ship turning in the direction of the target or a lot of fuel expenditure for the missile to alter course. Either stacking the coffins or loading them with missiles in port may be a difficult business.

For some of those reasons Russia is increasingly turning to vertical launch systems - like the West (mainly US) has used since the 1980s. 

Russia's October 2015 Caspian Sea vertical launching of 26 Kalibr cruise missiles - even from small later model Buyan class corvettes. 
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Not only the missiles can be rearranged but the Mark 41 system allows whole modules to be chopped and changed. (Diagram courtesy http://www.tpub.com/gunners/184.htm)
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The advantages of VLS include:

1.  It allows ships to load (in port) a selection of missile types tailored for possible missions. So 96 Mk 41 VLS cells on an Arleigh Burke class destroyer that is planning land attack cruise missiling of ISIS in Syria/Iraq, could be armed with (say):

-  70 Tomahawks (land attack),
-  10 ASROCs (anti-sub) and
-  16 SAM.
 Harpoon ASMs have their own diagonal launchers.

2. It is cheaper and easier to alter VLS modules and cells for new missile systems.

3.  Vertical modules can be more tightly packed (better using limited deck space than diagonal coffin launchers).

4. Fewer moving parts to go wrong

5. Greater safety and more balanced-aerodynamic launch as the missile flies straight up long enough to clear the cell and the ship, and then turns on course. Calm seas and low wind speeds help.

6. Not as vulnerable as coffins to blowing/falling over in rough seas or windy conditions.

The US has had ship VLS for decades and now Russia and China are adopting VLS in ever smaller ship types.

Here's a toe-tapping, missile-including piece of Russian techno-porn - just for fun.
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Have a good weekend.

Pete