Debate Continues Whether New Borei / Borey SSBNs will have 16 or 20 SLBMs

An issue that I know keeps submarine aficionados up at night is whether Russia will go to the trouble of fitting its 5 later model Borey 955A SSBNs, not with 16 SLBMs, but with 20. A myth persists on English language websites that from the 4th Borey/Borei (Project 955) SSBN onwards 20 SLBM silos will be fitted.

Russian Wikipedia, on Russian Subs, Better Than English

See English Wikipedia:

“Starting from the fourth hull, all submarines of the Borei class will have 20 missile tubes each, versus 16 for the first three boats.”

But see Russian Wikipedia, Project 955 Borey Submarines. Once in the Russian site wait 10 seconds for any "Translate" popup or right-click mouse to Translate. Note in the right sidebar “Armament” is:

 “16 missiles of the D-30 complex ^[6] , SL -30 SS-NX-30 Bulava   Number of missiles: 16 (project 955), 16 (project 955A) ^[7]” 

So 20 Bulava SLBMs may be old news or still accurate.

For further background and diagrams (like the Borey above) see Soumarsov’s https://www.soumarsov.eu/Sous-marins/Post92/955/955.htm 


PETE COMMENT

One thought is that the US and Russia may see zero sum game threats (meaning "one person's gain is anothers loss") from North Korea (NK) and China building more nuclear warheads. Say 1,000 for China? 

It is possible then the rising NK and Chinese capabilities would cause:

-  the US to fit or retrofit 10m to 20m plugs (for 4 to 8 more SLBMs respectively) on to its new 16
   SLBM future Columbia class SSBNs 

-  Russia might then retrofit 10m or 20m plugs onto its Boreys for the same purpose.

I think, instead the US would build additional Columbia and Russia additional Boreys all retaining 16 SLBMs. To fit or retrofit 10m or 20m plugs would mean many major adjustments would need to be made to the subs to  maintain acceptable Columbia/Borey handling, steering and above all stealth.

Soumarsov and Pete

Chinese Missiles of May, Spratly Islands & Paracels, South China Sea

Today's headlines are reportedly new discoveries of Chinese missiles being installed on some Spratly Islands/Reefs, in the southern portion of the South China Sea (SCS). This particularly includes Fiery Cross, Subi and Christmas Reefs. Reports of Chinese missiles and jetfighters in the Paracel Islands in the northern part of the SCS (especially Woody Island) go back to 2015-16. (The 2018 map above  is courtesy libertyunyielding.com provided by KQN).

China's YJ-12 anti-ship missiles being installed on its Spratly SCS islands/reefs may have a range of 295 nmi. The YJ-12 footprints (see map) extend from the Philippine territorial waters and most of its Palawan Island in the East to about 50 nmi off the Vietnam coast in the East. 

Even more Chinese range extending is the possibility that anti-ship and AA missile armed Chinese

J-11 (Flanker B++) fighters, observed on Woody Island since 2015, could be rotationally based on airstrips on Fiery Cross, Subi and Christmas. The J-11 has a very wide combat radius of 810 nmi. 

Adding to China's Spratly island power is the reportedly new introduction of "the HQ-9B long-range, surface-to-air missiles [above] [that] could target aircraft, drones and cruise missiles within 160 nautical miles."

The presence of these Chinese missiles will likely make the US and Australia hesitant in staging ship and especially aircraft FONOPs across the South China Sea (SCS). The missiles will add to the anxiety of Southeast Asian nations and Taiwan that compete against each other and China in the Spratly and Paracel islands' SCS disputes.

Pete

Pompeo brings "Swagger" to State - and CIA

Quite an impressive Pompeo CV. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-03/mike-pompeo-and-ceremony-us-diplomats-get-their-swagger-back/9721736 

And as former CIA Director Pompeo remains very influential at Langley as well. 

Trump, Pompeo and Bolton all embody the Doctrine that America no longer need be apologetic. A small essay (written in January 2017) pushing the Walk "Loudly" [this time] but Still Carry A 
Big Stick Doctrine http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=18789

Unlike Trump, Mike Pompeo (above) is well educated. Pompeo came first in his class of (one thousand?) at West Point. Problem is such high achievers may not take, or accept, advice (a problem already evident with good-at-skyscrapers Trump). Pompeo was Director CIA (January 23, 2017 – April 26, 2018) and is now Secretary of State (since April 26, 2018).

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Pete

F-35s Need to Use UnStealthy Afterburners to Stay Supersonic

Continuing on from http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2018/04/f-35-inferior-to-5th-even-4-generation.html on the F-35s weaknesses.

One issue less covered is the inability of the F-35 to, "supercruise" like F-22s (sustained cruising at supersonic speed without afterburner).

Wiki advises: “The [F-35’s F135 or F136 engine is] not designed to supercruise.^[57] However, the F-35 can briefly fly at Mach 1.2 for 150 miles without the use of an afterburner.”

Japanese F-35s will probably need to travel supersonic to intercept Chinese jetfighters in many situations. In addition to the afterburner being used for takeoff Japanese F-35s will likely need to stay on afterburner during most long distance supersonic travel. From the Japanese home islands or from Okinawa supersonic flight may be essential for successful interception of Chinese jetfighters over many parts of the East China Sea including the "Senkakus". 

Use of afterburner causes a large infrared signature, observable from Chinese satellites and high flying drones. Minimising heat signature is an important requirement of stealth.

Afterburning also uses up jetfuel quickly compared to aircraft with supercruise ability..

Fortunately China and Russia are also having trouble developing (or reverse engineering) supercruise capable jet engines for their stealth jets - see

-  https://thediplomat.com/2018/04/india-pulls-out-of-joint-stealth-fighter-project-with-

   russia/ (paysite) India dropping out of Russian PAK FA stealth project

and

-  http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2016/11/chinas-chengdu-j-20-shows-little.html

Jet flight from Japanese home islands is a long way from Senkakus/Diaoyu dispute (Map courtesy Chinese Defence Ministry, EIA and Yonhap.)

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Pete

Australia Canadian & US Surveillance Aircraft to Monitor North Korean Smuggling

North Korea is reportedly smuggling weapons and drugs (see Youtube above) in exchange for UN sanction banned products like oil or cash.

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ARTICLE

DEFENCE CONNECT April 30, 2018 reports https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/strike-air-combat/2220-surveillance-aircraft-to-deploy-to-japan

“A Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft will deploy to Japan to monitor North Korean vessels suspected of transferring prohibited goods in defiance of UN sanctions... Australia will work with both Canada and the United States in its role to uphold this pressure, with reports suggesting the P-8A Poseidon will operate out of the US’ Kadena Air Base in Japan...”

See WHOLE DEFENCE CONNECT ARTICLE

COMMENT/BACKGROND

This Australia and Canadian decision to use aircraft to monitor and deter North Korean sanction busting/smuggling is designed to put additional on North Korea in the runup to the Trump-Kim Jong-un meeting. This meeting may take place in the North-South Korea demiliturized zone, perhaps in late May 2018.

The US, South Korea and Japan are likely to have used patrol aircraft for many years to monitor North Korean ship smuggling. But this effort has probably been increased. 

Kadena is a huge air base (employing or contracting nearly 18,000 Americans and more than 4,000 Japanese ) on the Japanese island of Okinawa.

The US is likely deploying E-3B/C Sentries or P-8s as part of this activity. Canada may deploy a (or some) P-3 derivative CP-140 Auroras.

US, South Korean and Japanese submarines could also track North Korea smuggling activities.

See The Guardian, March 31, 2018, North Korea smuggling: dozens of ships and companies blacklisted by UN Wherein North Korean shipping companies that smuggle are “blacklisted” with their assets frozen, global (cannot enter) port bans and deregistered (including removal of insurance cover). Police, coastguards or navies stopping and searching North Korea vessels is less publicized.

Pete

Song of Bill Doolan's Last Stand, Gull Force, Ambon, WWII, 1942

Following Submarine Matters’ publication of ANZAC Day Songs an Anonymous commenter has recounted the sacrifice of Australian soldier William (Bill) Doolan.

The Ambonese people (living on Ambon island in Indonesia) have a song about Doolan set to the tune “The Rose In Her Hair” (see Youtube below). Doolan single handedly held up a Japanese advance in Ambon in early 1942, during World War Two. Driver/Private William Doolan served in the 2/21^st Australian Battalion, which made up much of "Gull Force".

 

Gull Force soldiers brought the tune “The Rose In Her Hair” to the Ambonese, who put new lyrics to it in remembrance of Doolan’s last stand. The Youtube version here and above is sung by Simani ("Sim and I") a Newfoundland and Labrador (Canadian) traditional music group.
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The Morwell Advertiser (newspaper of Victoria, Australia) published a front page article dated December 13, 1945 with the words:

"Song of Doolan" The following extract from "Ambon News" of 7th November [1945], tells the epic story of a Morwell boy...Driver Tom Doolan, the son of Mr. Tom Doolan and the late Mrs. Doolan, was born, reared and educated in Morwell, from where he enlisted.

"The original song 'Rose In Her Hair', was brought first to Ambon by the Australian [Gull Force] in 1942, and it was a song that the Ambonese have heard [the Australians] singing while working on the roads as prisoners-of-war. [the Ambonese started singing the tune themselves, in Ambonese Malay in which the name “Doolan” could be distinguished.

"Not far from the [Tantui, on Ambon] beside a track leading to the hills stands a grave, and over it a wooden cross marked:

VX 35406 Dvr. Doolan, W. T., 2/21 Bn. K.I.A. 1/2/42.

[When the Japanese Army were invading Ambon in January/February 1942 Doolan] was alone when he made his last stand. High in a Gandaria tree near the Batoegantoeng River, he built a machine gun nest and waited in it with his gun aimed on the bend of the road.

"Three trucks full of Japanese soldiers came roaring up the narrow track, and as they passed, Doolan poured the devastating fire at point blank range. The Japanese casualties were staggering. Doolan stayed where he was, waiting. Then some hours later, Japanese snipers who were sent out to pick him off, found his hiding place, and he was shot through the back of the head, crashing through the branches on to the ground, dead.

Then the Japanese moved on, and the Ambonese came back rescued his body and laid it to rest. To this day-they tend his grave...Here it is in Australian translation:

"On the first day of February. An Australian soldier climbed into his strong post; Thousands of soldiers of Japan lay killed and wounded. Shot by the great guns, machine guns and rifles Of the Australians on Ambon.

One Australian named Doolan

Had killed many men of Japan

He did not retreat or withdraw

Until at last he was killed alone

An Australian named Doolan

Died by the side of the road

His grave is under a Gandaria tree

The tale is told everywhere on Ambon

An Australian named Doolan

Died by the bullets from the men of Japan

Calling his mother, father, wife and children

But they could not hear him.

Here is further reading about the Ambonese, Gull Force and Bill Doolan, scroll a third way down this pdf file to the subheading about Doolan “He inspired a war chart [chant]”

An Anonymous and Pete