Israel's three TKMS Dolphin 3s to be Commissioned from 2030

Israel, continues its close association with TKMS in construction of German built submarines. This is in the context of a highly rational rolling replacement program of submarine generations. Since Israeli independence Israel appears to have automatically chosen Germany's TKMS because the German Government (post Holocaust) heavily subsidizes/reduces the cost of TKMS subs to Israel. 

Also Germany is an attractive source of submarines because it, like Japan, specialises in producing advanced conventional (diesel-electric) submarines. This is without the distraction of also producing nuclear propelled submarines. 

The chief of Israel's submarine service has indicated the first of three TKMS built [Pete calls them "Dolphin 3s"] is expected to be commissioned in 2030. From the early 2030s the three Dolphin 3's will, on a rolling basis, replace the three Dolphin 1s which were commissioned in 1999–2000. Meanwhile the three Dolphin 2s will operate until approximately 2050. 

Thus Israel will maintain a rolling average of six nuclear missile armed Dolphin submarines - Israel's most valuable naval and strategic assets.

A fuller description of the (by 2030) commissioning is at an IHS Jane's article by Yaakov Lappin. 

Putin's Pre-election Post-Pluto nuclear powered missile

PUTIN SPEAKS

"MOSCOW, March 1. /TASS/. Russia has created a small-size super-powerful nuclear power plant that can be installed on a cruise missile, which will ensure an unlimited flight range and invulnerability to missile and air defense systems, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in his [March 1, 2018] annual State of the Nation Address to the Federal Assembly on Thursday."

COMMENT/BACKGROUND

Drawing form Wiki. The Supersonic Low Altitude Missile (SLAM) was a US Air Force project conceived around 1955, and cancelled in 1964. SLAMs utilized unmanned nuclear-powered ramjets and capable of dropping off thermonuclear warheads (see youtube below) deep into Russian or Chinese territory.

The development of ICBMs in the 1950s rendered the SLAMs idea obsolete. Advances in defensive ground radar also made the stratagem of low-altitude evasion ineffective as did satellite lookdown radar and optical/infrared anti-missile sensors. 

The use of a nuclear ramjet engine (developed under Project Pluto) in the airframe promised to give the missile useless low-altitude range of up 113,000 miles (ie. 182,000 km) more than four and a half times around the world. At a SLAM's projected speed of Mach 4 this might represent a 2 hour and 50+ hour flight time! This SLAM would then provide good target practice for long alerted enemy defences. 

Drawing from Wiki. The SLAM program was scrapped due to the grave dangers of testing over land or even sea as the fully “hot” reactor ramjet would generate large amounts of unshielded radioactive exhaust/fallout. The reactor heated up to more than 1,400 °C for much of the flight profile. The missile skin might even rise to 2,000+ °C due to lower altitude air compression and friction at the SLAMs hypersonic speeds.

Compare this to ICBMs that in midcourse detach from their hot boosters then operate in low heat or no friction altitudes, can break into 12 MIRVs, drop chaff and decoys, moving at Mach 20 and hitting their targets much faster - 18 minutes,.

Also stealthy conventional jet engine (eg. Tomahawk) and/or rocket powered cruise missiles can also perform low altitude attacks. eg. 20+ fired by each of the US or Russia's SSNs.

QUESTION

1.  Is Putin strategically serious or is he making a politically bellicose pre-election comment before the March 18, 2018 Presidential Election? I would say after Putin's almost certain re-election the nuclear powered missile will be declared a multi-year project and quietly ignored (ie. shelved).

2.  Will Trump, as always falling for Putin's utterances, decide that the US should build its own nuclear powered cruise missile, wasting $Billions on Project Pluto 2?

As Trump reputedly cannot read more than a short paragrouph he may be impressed by the above stirring youtube, before spending $Billions on Pluto 2.
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The following, mainly 1950s-1960s, artworks on Pluto SLAMs are from a French language site, spotted by Anonymous and titled "Aeronautical Nuclear Propulsion" based on sources at the bottom of http://jpcolliat.free.fr/x6/x6-10.htm.

Pete

US carrier Carl Vinson's Vietnam Visit - Maybe a US Submarine will Visit Next

US Stars and Stripes photo of Admiral Phillip Sawyer shaking hands who in the Vietnamese media are mysteriously described as "leaders of Danang" .

---

US nuclear supercarrier USS Carl Vinson has docked near Vietnam's 3rd Regional Command Danang (or Da Nang) naval base for the very first time. This is the first US carrier visit to Vietnam since the US retreat in 1975.

Da Nang was the site of a major US air base during the Vietnam War.

This week Commander of the US 7th Fleet, Vice Admiral Phillip Sawyer is enthusiastic about organising a followup visit by an, as yet unnamed, nuclear submarine. On his way to becomming an  Admiral Sawyer commanded attack Submarine Squadron 15 (Apra navy base, Guam). The US The Navy has four Los Angeles class fast-attack submarines — USS Key West, USS Oklahoma City, USS Asheville and USS Topeka — forward deployed to Guam.

The Vietnamese media has a useful description of what the visit means to Vietnam.

Admiral Sawyer arrived in US Navy Carrier Strike Group 1 (Carrier Strike Group 1) aircraft carrier Carl Vinson (CVN-70). Escorted by cruiser USS Lake Champlain (CG-57) and destroyer USS Wayne E. Meyer (DDG 108) which entered Da Nang Bay, beginning a four-day visit to Vietnam.

Russian SSN & SSK Details from Anonymous Russian Sub Expert

Pete Comment: the following Russian submarine descriptions probably started out being in Russian, then translated into French, then English. Pete has further translated some comments into more correct English.

On February 18, 2018 an Anonymous from https://www.soumarsov.eu/sous_marins.htm – commented at Submarine Matters: On March 1, 2018 Pete published Anonymous’ comments on Russian SSBNs and SSGNs/Multipurpose. 

Now follows Anonymous comments on Russian SSNs (including Husky) and SSKs (including the Kalina class):

SSNs

No new SSN construction is going on. Some SSNs may be in the process of being modernized in the Zvezdochka shipyard in the Severodvinsk military-industrial (closed to foreigners) area, but the first unit will not come back into service until 2019. These may be:

-  less than 10 Akula Project 971 SSNs (see Anonymous's French language

   article https://www.soumarsov.eu/Sous-marins/Post92/971M/971M.htm then right-click mouse to

   "Translate to English" or your chosen language ) and

 -  two Sierra I Project 945s (submarines Carp and Kostroma ) 

Two Sierra II Project 945As are active in Russia's Northern Fleet. They are:

-  Nizhniy Novgorod (B-534) overhaul completed in 2008, and

-  Pskov (B-336) overhaul completed in 2015.

A new SSN project, in English "Husky" (in Russian "KHASKI" or "Khaski") was interpreted in the English language media in July 2017 as being an eventual three category (SSN, SSGN and SSBN) project.

But it is probably more accurate to say Husky is an SSN project, as Yasen SSGNs and Borey/Borei SSBNs will continue to be new-built for years and not replaced for two or three decades. 

Husky concept artwork. Pete comment: Still some believe a Husky derivative will augment or replace the Yasen SSGNs, on account of the derivative having around 26 bow-mounted VLS (as in guesstimate artwork above courtesy Strategic Culture Foundation). But at the some time Virginia SSNs have/will have between 12 (in Blocks I-IV) to 40 (Block V onwards) vertically launched Tomahawk missiles without being called SSGNs. Perhaps Russia will merge the SSN and SSGN designations as will happen in the US (once all 4 US Ohio class SSGNs are retired).
--- 

An initial Husky SSN concept design by Malakhit may appear later this year (2018). Malakhit Design Bureau announced on December 9 2017 that Husky construction could begin in 2020. Contradicting the 2020 start is information the first Husky may be laid down at Sevmash by 2024. see https://www.soumarsov.eu/Sous-marins/Futur/Khaski/Khaski.htm

SSKs

Following commissioning of 6 Kilo Project 636.3 submarines into the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) 6 more are under construction for Russia's Pacific Fleet. Deliveries are from 2019 and 2022. see https://www.soumarsov.eu/Sous-marins/Post92/636/06363/6363.htm

The single hulled Lada Project 677 sideview (Artwork courtesy soumarsov(dot)eu) Note that it appears to have an  older style cruciform tail rather than a modern X-plane tail.

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The much delayed Lada Poject 677 is still an uncertainty and with it the export development, the Project 1650 (or 677E) and 950 Amur-class . [Pete comment: On the Rubin Design Bureau website it indicates Ladas and Amurs are Rubin projects].

"Commissioned" but still testing of Lada 1 first of class St Petersburg (B-585) continues. Lada 2 Kronshtadt (B-586) laid down in 2005! is due for commissioning in 2019. Lada 3 Velikiye Luki (B-587) is due for commissioning in 2021. Two more could be ordered in 2018. see https://www.soumarsov.eu/Sous-marins/Post92/677/677.htm. [Pete comment: Ladas are single hulled unlike the double hulled Kilos].

[Pete Comment -  But there is no reliable information that efficiently working AIP has been developed for Ladas and future spinoff Amurs - which is why Russia is still building non-AIP Kilos] 

Kalina [is also a Rubin project but also lacking the critical AIP technology] - She should have an "Underwater Range Extender (URE)" [Does that mean AIP and/or Lithium-ion Batteries?]. But the design process will be finished in the 2018 – 2025 equipment program. No Kalina is  laid down is announced. see https://www.soumarsov.eu/Sous-marins/Futur/Kalina/Kalina.htm [Pete comment: China is interested in acquiring some Kalinas as technology transfer examples of Russia's latest conventional submarines - when Kalinas are finally available..

PS: all the soumarsov.eu submarine Project links (above) have a date based “Bibliographie” eg. Kalina has this.

Anonymous

Russian SSBN Submarine Replacement Schedule - Deltas to Boreys/Boreis

In response to Josh's question of  March 2, 2018:

"Are the Delta IVs actually going to be refurbished? They are really long in tooth. I would expect them to be retired before they go through their next major overhaul now that new SSBNs and SLBMs are online."

I respond:

I would say typical mid-life or further 10 year refurbishments are unlikely.

Looking at:

 the 3 to 4 very old reserve (for emergencies) Delta IIIs ie K-223, K-433 & K-44

and 6 active Delta IV's whose last major overhauls ended in: 
- 2008
- 2010
- 2 in 2012
- 2014 and
- 2017

(the Delta IV converted for "special purposes" (eg. submarine cable tapping) BS-64 is excluded).

I would say the 6 active Delta IVs would be useful for a maximum of 10 years after their major 
overhauls. This means each is likely to be progressively retired in 2018, 2020, 2 in 2022, 2024 and the last in 2027.

The 3 Boreys that are already commissioned replace all 3 Delta IIIs
 
I would say the 6 x active Delta IVs are likely to be replaced on a rolling basis by 6 more Boreys (from Borey/Borei 4 (Knyaz Vladimir) to Borey 9 (Borei-В 955В))

Then Russia will commission 3 more Boreys for a Total Borey/Borei fleet of 12, as shown on Unit Table 

But still there are ambiguities. 

1.  Are Borey 955Вs the same as Borey IIs? and

2.  Will Bs and IIs both have the increased capacity (up from the older Boreys' 16 missiles) 
      to 20 missiles?

All this Russian SSBN replacement schedule is worth putting in one large Table.

Pete

Revised Russian SSBN & SSGN Details from Russian Sub Expert

Pete Comment: the following Russian submarine descriptions probably started out being in Russian, then translated into French, then English. Pete has further translated some comments into more correct English.

On February 18, 2018 an Anonymous from https://www.soumarsov.eu/sous_marins.htm – commented at Submarine Matters:

Hello, Pete

The wording of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_the_Russian_Navy#Submarines is either out of date or sketchy. As you know, I follow Russian submarine matters on a daily basis. My comments on the various Russian submarine categories are:

SSBNs

There are 3 x Project 955A Boreys currently in service, one in Russia’s Northern fleet, two others in the Pacific Fleet. See https://www.soumarsov.eu/Sous-marins/Post92/955/955.htm

5 x Project 955A Boreys are under construction. The first one is expected to be in service in 2018, the last one in November 2021. But the last could be delayed until 2023-2025. See https://www.soumarsov.eu/Sous-marins/Post92/955A/955A.htm

New Project, 955B Boreys are expected to be in service from 2026. As it takes roughly 7 years to build a Borey, the first Project 955B Borey should be laid down in 2018 or 2019. But there is a fierce fight between the Rubin and Malakhit Design Bureaus to handle the 955B project engineering. Rubin is arguing for a 995A follow-on, while Malakhit advocates a common platform for SSNs, SSGNs and SSBNs.

The major overhaul schedule for the 6 x Project 667BDRM Delta IV SSBNs, is every ten years. See https://www.soumarsov.eu/Sous-marins/Post45/667BDRM/667BDRM.htm

2013 artwork celebrating laying down, on July 26, 2013, of Novosibirsk, the 3rd Yasen Project 885 SSGN. The Yasen is armed with 8 x 650mm and 2 x 533mm torpedo tubes, 8 VLS (which can take total weapons load of 32 Yakhont/Oniks ASM or 40 Kalibr-PL ASM/Land Attack)

SSGNs [often called “Multipurpose”]

Two classes are in current service, the Project 949A Antey / Oscar II and the Project 885 Yasen. NATO reporting name: "Severodvinsk”.

The Yasen was [designed by the Malakhit Design Bureau and based on the Akula SSN and Alfa SSN] The first Yasen Severodvinsk is active in the Northern Fleet (K-560). She has been in experimental service since 2011 and only in March 2016 was she fully accepted.

A follow-on class is the Project 885M Yasen-Ms.  Only 6 x Yasen-Ms are under construction at Sevmash shipyard. The first is Kazan (K-561), expected for the end of 2018. The last one, Ulyanovsk, is, at earliest, due in 2023. See https://www.soumarsov.eu/Sous-marins/Post92/885M/885M.htm
There in no follow-on announced.

Some Project 949A Oscar IIs are to be modernized in project 949AM. Modernization will allow them to deploy Kalibr-PL missiles [with ranges up to 2,500 km. At least two Oscar IIs are in Zvezda shipyard, (Eastern Siberia) including Irkutsk (K-132) modernised by 2021, and Chelyabinsk (K-442) modernised by 2023. Modernization of the 3rd and 4th Oscar IIs is yet to be announced. See https://www.soumarsov.eu/Sous-marins/Post92/949AM/949AM.htm

Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov announced on February 7, 2018 that modernized Project 949A Oscar IIs, will be in service with Kalibr missiles, starting between 2018 and 2021. As far as I know Omsk is only at Zvezda shipyard(?) for repairs to her propulsion system. (those huge Oscar II subs seem to have frequent propulsion problems).

Anonymous's excellent details on Russian SSNs and SSKs will follow early next week.

Anonymous