US Gov Giving Columbia Subs Priority Over AUKUS Commitment

The US Government is giving production of Columbia SSBNs priority over AUKUS Virginia commitments.

Rather than producing 2.33 Virginias per year to meet AUKUS commitments, the US Government is producing only 1.1 to 1.2 (page 56 reference below) Virginias per year. 

This is in order to permit "top priority" (page 50) to be given to 1 Columbia class SSBN launch per year. 

"One COLUMBIA Class SSBN represents approximately 2.5 [Virginia class] VACL SSNs in terms of build resources (manning) and tonnage." (page 62)

The reference is the US Congressional Research Service's Navy Virginia-Class Submarine Program and AUKUS Submarine (Pillar 1) Project: Background and Issues for Congress of February 11, 2025 at https://sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/RL32418.pdf

Scott on USN's SSN Shortage "money won't fix this problem"

Scott, on June 20, 2025, provided the excellent comments below :

"Thanks Pete. As an engineer I have zero confidence in the USA turning this [the USN's SSN shortage] around, whether Democrats or Republicans are in charge. Biden never once increased the USN budgeted number of Virginias in the three budgets he delivered after AUKUS [in 2022, 2023 and 2024). Trump may not either.

Yet this problem extends beyond budgets. In many sectors if the government workforce is inadequate they can hire workers from the private sector. Not shipbuilding. [Firstly] The USA has declined as a shipbuilding power to the point it makes virtually no ships except for government (mostly naval) contracts. There are no private sector workers with the high level welding skills needed for sub hulls to hire in. [Major submarine builders] GDEB and HII must either hire and train more young workers, or they will not expand production.

This leads to the second problem - lack of attraction to young workers. Despite the high prices they charge the USN, US shipyards are low payers. This is especially problematic for sub builders, who need the highest skills. Why would a top welder join a shipyard when the pay for those skills is far higher in the oil and gas industry?

[See John Grady's USNI March 11, 2025 article "Increasing wages for shipyard workers is the top challenge when attracting and retaining everyone from pipefitters to naval architects, a naval analyst told the House Armed Services Committee on Tuesday" at https://news.usni.org/2025/03/11/pay-number-one-issue-in-growing-u-s-shipbuilding-workforce-panel-tells-hasc ]

The final problem is that internal engineering skills have declined within USN, ever since they cut back the old internal design bureau, BuShips. In making structural savings, the USN kept the bean counters but cut the engineers and scientists. So now they know they have a technical problem, but not how to fix it.

More money won't fix this problem, whether from Australian or US taxpayers. When supply is fixed and demand goes up, the price goes up. That is what is happening - inflation of USN SSN costs, but no increase in output."

Confirmed: Israel Coerced the US into Bombing Iran

Further to my post of June 16, 2025 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2025/06/israel-may-coerce-us-bomber-involvement.html
my sources confirm Israel coerced the US into bombing Iran.

Israel argued 10 days ago that without US heavy bunker buster GBU-57 assistance Israel would have no alternative but to use low-to-intermediate yield nuclear bombs against Iran's deep dug nuclear enrichment sites at Fordow and Natanz. 

The light, around 600kg, air dropped Israeli nuclear bombs in question are similar to the US's 540kg B61-11 free fall nuclear bunker buster bombs. See The B61 family of nuclear bombs by Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris Pages 79-84  Published online: Nov 27, 2015 at https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1177/0096340214531546#d1e111

The B61-11s are heavier, with a hardened casing, than average 324kg B61s, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B61_nuclear_bomb as the B61-11s need to penetrate some earth, rock or concrete before exploding.

Nuclear Site Targets in TEHRAN for Israeli & US Air Forces: Plutonium.

Now that my prediction in my article of June 19, 2025
"Likely Targets of US B2 bombers: Tehran, Natanz & Fordow"
at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2025/06/likely-targets-of-us-b2-bombers-tehran.html

has become fact, on June 22, 2025.

Targets under Tehran have not been hit - yet - by US aircraft. Although Israeli aircraft have been hitting targets in Tehran for several days.

While the focus of Israeli and now US bombing may be Uranium enrichment and highly enriched uranium (HEU) storage, Plutonium also presents an explosive threat used in  nuclear weapons. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plutonium#Nuclear_fission

Nuclear reactor and Plutonium reprocessing sites https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_reprocessing around Iran may now be on Israeli and US target lists. 

The danger of the Israeli and US air forces bombing Plutonium production reactors in Tehran and elsewhere in Iran, is the radioactive dust clouds that will rain down on Tehran and on the broader MidEast region. A similar ruptured reactor, radioactive dust, dispersal tragedy, occurred in the European region during and after the Chernobyl disaster of 1986.

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_facilities_in_Iran#Tehran_Nuclear_Research_Center :

"Tehran Nuclear Research Center

The Tehran Nuclear Research Center (TNRC) brings together a number of Iranian nuclear research facilities, including...plutonium separation^[109][110] and purification,^[108][111] uranium conversion,^[112] laser enrichment, and polonium production.^[113]

These activities, many of which have direct applications in nuclear weapons development, have drawn international scrutiny, particularly due to Iran’s failure to disclose them fully to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).^[112] The presence of advanced research infrastructure within the TNRC has further raised concerns about Iran’s nuclear intentions, as the facility’s capabilities extend beyond civilian applications and into sensitive areas relevant to weapons proliferation.^[108]

Tehran Research Reactor

The Tehran Research Reactor (TRR)...was primarily designated for medical isotope production, its capability to operate with highly enriched uranium (HEU) raised concerns about its possible military applications.^[114] The facility’s ability to produce materials relevant to nuclear weapons development made it a subject of international scrutiny and regulatory measures within the framework of the nuclear agreement.^[114]

The reactor was supplied by the United States under the Atoms for Peace program...

After the Iranian Revolution, the United States cut off the supply of highly enriched uranium (HEU) fuel for the TRR, which forced the reactor to be shut down for a number of years.^[118][119] Due to the nuclear proliferation concerns caused by the use of HEUs and following Reduced Enrichment Research and Test Reactor (RERTR) Programs, Iran signed agreements with Argentina's National Atomic Energy Commission to convert the TRR from highly enriched uranium fuel to low-enriched uranium, and to supply the low-enriched uranium to Iran in 1987–88. TRR core was converted to use Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) fuels in 1993.^[120]

On the other hand, during the same time period, between 1988 and 1993, Iran conducted undeclared experiments in uranium reprocessing at the TRR, and between 1991-1993 separated approximately 100 milligrams of plutonium, an amount 500 times higher than the 200 micrograms which it declared.^[112] Additionally, Iran attempted to extract the Polonium-210 isotope by irradiating two bismuth targets, which together with beryllium serves as a neutron initiator in a number of nuclear weapon designs.^[121][108] Although Iran stated that these actions were experiments for the feasibility of radioisotope thermoelectric generator production, the IAEA expressed doubt regarding Iran's declared intentions.^[121][108]

Fuel elements of TRR are now plate-type U₃O₈-Al with approximately 20% enrichment.^[122] In February 2012, Iran loaded the first domestically produced fuel element into the Tehran Research Reactor.^[123]...." Ends

Likely Targets of US B2 bombers: Tehran, Natanz & Fordow

The article bellow follows my most recent June 16, 2025, article Israel May Coerce US Bomber Involvement in War Against Iran, at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2025/06/israel-may-coerce-us-bomber-involvement.html. I suspect Israel might have advised the US that the only option open to Israel was the unviable use of Israeli nuclear weapons to destroy the most deeply dug Iranian nuclear facilities. Israel and the US are most probably in agreement it is far preferable to use US-only heavy conventional high explosive bunker buster bombs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-57A/B_MOP#Development .

Possible targets of these US bombs are very deeply dug Uranium enrichment sites under the Iranian cities of Tehran, Natanz and Fordow (see 3:40 into the video above and map below). Those sites might also have stores of almost bomb grade highly enriched Uranium (HEU).

Tehran also has a "research reactor" which may be to produce nuclear explosive Plutonium. If this reactor were bombed it could spread radiation over Tehran.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plutonium#Nuclear_fission
All this puts Tehran at risk – one reason why Trump is advising “evacuate Tehran”.

US B-2 heavy stealth bombers, forward based at Diego Garcia (central Indian Ocean) would carry out these heavy bombing missions. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_B-2_Spirit#2000s

Tehran, Natanz and Fordow aka Fordo (Map courtesy BBC https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-11927720 )

---

Here is information - at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fordow_Fuel_Enrichment_Plant#2025_Israeli_airstrikes  - on Natanz and Fordow

"Satellite imagery and reports suggested that some above-ground sites at Fordow and Natanz were damaged [by the Israeli airstrikes last week] but the subterranean facilities that house centrifuges and enriched uranium were not breached."

For more information see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_facilities_in_Iran.

Israel May Coerce US Bomber Involvement in War Against Iran

In response to Shawn's June 13, 2025 comment:

Because Israel has no heavy bomber aircraft to carry 10+ tonne bunker buster bombs against deep dug Iranian 60+% highly enriched Uranium (HEU) and other targets Israel may coerce the US into deploying USAF B2s against those targets. US B2s are the only heavy bombers equipped, at short notice, to carry the 14 tonne freefall bunker buster GBU-57 bomb [1]. 

Of Western countries only the US has heavy bombers. Israeli F-35Is would be limited to carrying a 2,000kg GBU-28 bunker buster bomb internally (in full stealth mode) or 2 x GBU-28s externally (in less stealthy mode) [2]. 

Israel will argue that without US GBU-57 assistance Israel will have no alternative but to use the "unthinkable" against Iran. Unthinkable would be Israeli use of a low-to-intermediate yield nuclear bomb similar to the US's Mod 11 B61 freefall nuclear bunker buster bomb [3] .

[1]  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-57A/B_MOP#Development

[2]  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-35_Lightning_II#Specifications_(F-35A)

[3]  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B61_nuclear_bomb

Here and below see the video "B2 Bomber Iran Airstrikes Strategy Explained" dated April 2025. Note the Israeli air force has already destroyed many/most(?) Iranian air defences.