Taiwan: Chinese Shandong Carrier: Submarine Activity

The carrier Shandong with one of its Chinese escorts.
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Over the last 24 hours China’s second aircraft carrier, Shandong, has been exercising with escorts about 300km east off Taiwan’s east coast. This is a political move in reaction to the meeting between Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen and US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

Shandong is probably escorted by a group consisiting of a Chinese Type 093 SSN in front, maybe 2 pre-positioned Yuan-class SSKs, a Type 055 cruiser sized destroyer and maybe 3 or 4 smaller escorts (probably Type 054 frigates and/or Type 052D destroyers and/or Type 056 corvettes).

The Shandong Carrier Group entered the western Pacific through the Bashi Channel between southern Taiwan and northern Luzon, Philippines. It was southeast of Taiwan about 20 hours ago. The group then sailed north, putting it due east of Taiwan.
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In reaction Taiwanese P-3C Orion aircraft would have shadowed the Shandong Group. Long range radars in Taiwan and undersea sensors (working to Taiwanese, US and Jpanese stations) would have monitored it. As the Shandong is listed as only having a fixed wing force of 32 J-15 fighters (with only moderate fuel loads because there is no catapult assist on Shandong) Shandong couldn’t dominate Taiwan’s airspace. 

Instead Shandong might complicate the approach of US and allied relief ships and aircraft trying to send troops, ammunition, fuel and food to Taiwan in the buildup to a medium intensity confrontation. So Shandong may be better for blockading shipping and airspace than fighting allied naval units. Submarines might easily torpedo it, missiles hit it, or smartmines sink it in a medium to high intensity war. 

US satellites would be tracking it around the clock as would probably be 2 US SSNs (maybe one from Submarine Squadron 15, based at Guam and another that has been visiting the US naval base at Yokosuka, Japan).

As Submarine Matters has long been advised that the Bashi Channel is a standard patrol area for Japanese Soryu and Oyashio-class submarinese they would also be quietly watching the Shandong Group.

We can expect further Chinese missile, aircraft and warship incursions next time a senior US politician meets the Taiwan's President. 

Nuclear Sub Ran Aground: Western Australian Coast

HMS Trenchant docking in the UK

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Nuclear propelled attack submarine HMS Trenchant, of the Trafalgar-class (which preceded the Astutes) is a floating hulk in the UK. Trenchant awaits the huge cost and a UK nuclear waste dump option, involved in removing her radioactive parts. She can then be scrapped.  

In July 1997, HMS Trenchant ran aground off the Western Australian (WA) coast.  While approaching Fleet Base West (HMAS Stirling) just south of Perth, WA,  Trenchant, at a depth of 200m, collided with Australia's continental shelf. She came  to rest on a sloping patch of seafloor. Trenchant was able to free herself, and an inspection by divers (at 200m? shallower? or at Fleet Base West?) reported no significant damage. 

If Trenchant had collided at high speed, like Los Angeles-class USS San Francisco, there could have been fatalities and $100s millions in damage. In 2005 USS San Francisco collided with an undersea mountain ("seamount") with 98 crew injured and tragically one fatality. Photo below:

When, or if, Australia buys Virginia-class submarines, operating out of Fleet Base West, RAN crews will need to get used to high submerged speeds, to avoid collisions. 

Fortunately submarine reactors are towards the stern/back, so, in theory, not  effected by head-on collisions. 

Breakneck Training Risks Nuclear Mistakes

"Australia faces an ‘incredibly difficult’ task over the next 15 to 20 years to

train enough people to support the AUKUS nuclear submarine program."

PETE COMMENT

Training Australians at the required breakneck pace to support

Australia based US submarines from 2027 and then Australian SSNs

from the early 2030s risks nuclear mistakes.

Russia Sub & Naval Mine Threat in Black Sea Next?

An interesting March 29, 2023 Popular Mechanics article that Russia's 6 diesel-electric Kilo submarines in its Black Sea Fleet (BSF) may be ordered to torpedo Ukrainian merchant ships and/or lay naval mines in the Black Sea. Russian subs and other units mistaking the nationality/flag of a ship in the Black Sea is possible...

Such naval mines, that can also be laid by Russian ships or aircraft, may threaten not only Ukrainian ships but ships of other nations bordering the Black Sea. Those other nations include Georgia and (a channel to) Moldova and NATO members Turkey, Rumania and Bulgaria. Also third country (flags of convenience) shipping could be sunk. 

It is unclear whether destroying or damaging shipping of a NATO member by using torpedoes or naval mines would be considered an attack on NATO under Articles 4 and 5 of the NATO Treaty. 

Escalation into a Russia-NATO confrontation might occur quickly even if accidental.

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If only Australia had Bought Subs Like Singapore

I thank retortPouch, whose March 28, 2023 comment inspired the article below. 

With its usual efficiency Singapore ordered 2 Invincible-class submarines from Germany’s TKMS  in 2013 and 2 in 2017. First of class RSS Invincible was launched in 2019 and commissioned in 2023. The second and third of class, RSS Impeccable and RSS Illustrious, were launched in Germany in December 2022. 

The Invincibles are seen as high quality general purpose diesel-electric submarines (SSKs) with AIP, permitting them to sit in or slowly patrol the Strait of Malacca for long periods. They have the speed and range to intercept other SSKs, like Chinese Songs and Yuans, that are passing through that strait or in the South China Sea. See an Invincible class model below.

A Singaporean Navy crew has been training on RSS Invincible in Germany and might sail it to Singapore in time for the International Maritime Defence Exhibition (IMDEX) Asia that will take place next week, for 3 days from May 3-5, 2023 in Singapore.

RSS Invincible will replace one of the Singapore’s aging Challenger-class subs (probably RSS Conqueror (ex HSwMS Sjölejonet). Singapore will then temporarily have a submarine fleet of 3 classes, consisting of:

-  RSS Invincible 

-  2 x Archer-class subs (RSS Archer and RSS Swordsman), and 

-  1 x Challenger-class 

Note that the Archers and Challengers were second-hand, modernised Swedish submarines, built by what is now Saab-Kockums. In what was a curious decision then and now, Sweden’s Kockums was sold to a foreign competitor, what is now Germany's TKMS, in 1999. TKMS had sound commercial reasons to not permit Kockums to sell new submarines to Singapore in the 2010s. Instead TKMS won the Singaporean order in 2013 with German built Type 218SGs renamed the Invincible-class.

See numerous Submarine Matters articles on the Invincibles/218SGs here and here.

Between the efficiencies of a Singaporean customer and a German builder there has been none of the delays, hesitations and cancellations that bedevilled Australia’s home-build attempt, the 2016-2021 Shortfin Barracuda Attack-class fiasco. If Australia had bought TKMS Type 216s, built in Germany, the first may have been set to arrive in Australia in the late 2020s. 

But Australia always wants to home build its submarines, except for the Virginia-class SSNs. I feel Australia's Prime Minister Albanese has settled for an overseas built nuclear propelled submarine because he wants to kill off the Virginia plan. This is because the plan is too expensive and too divisive in Albanese's generally build-subs-in-Australia and anti-nuclear Labor Party, which is generally reliant on the staunchly anti-nuclear Greens Party.

Now the Labor supporting ACTU, again rising in power and opposed to all things nuclear, has also expressed opposition to Labor's Virginia and AUKUS-SSN policies.

US ISR Jet First Mission Northern Finland: Russian Subs

Thomas Nilsen at The Barents Observer has written an excellent article of March 25, 2023. Here are parts of it:

“U.S. surveillance jet makes first mission up to northern Finland" 

"Unlike Norway, which has self-imposed restraint on NATO activity near its border with Russia, Finland is now opening its skies for US intelligence flights along the eastern frontier.

…This is the first time in history that a U.S. RC-135 Rivet Joint (photo below) made a sortie inside Finnish airspace.

Finland is will “receive new F-35 fighter jets as Finland starts replacing the current fleet of F/A-18 Hornets in 2026.”

…NATO “now can use the airspace over mid- and northern Finland to collect information about the Kola-base complex area.” [see map below, courtesy dreamstime]

Russia’s Kola Peninsula is home to Putin’s fleet of ballistic missile submarines, multi-purpose submarines with long-range cruise missiles, and supersonic bomber planes. 

...Real-time monitoring

The RC-135 Rivet Joint carries monitoring sensors supporting NATO intelligence with near real-time on-scene electronic warfare signals from inside Russia. Onboard instruments can listen to military communication as well as detect Russian air defense radars and other signals. The aircraft are frequent visitors to airspace over the Black Sea, in the Baltics around Kaliningrad, and up north, over the Barents Sea. 

...Finland’s NATO membership took a significant step forward with the Turkish parliament’s foreign affairs committee unanimously approving the Nordic country’s accession to the alliance.

For NATO, having Finland now opening its airspace for so-called ISR missions (Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) provides for a better understanding of possible changes in Russia’s military posture in the north.

...With Russia’s war in Ukraine, the entire security landscape in Europe is now, however, dramatically changing.

“It will be interesting to see if Finland and Sweden entry into NATO will impact Norway’s national rules and regulations for allied flights in the High North and if a common regional approach will emerge,” says Per Erik Solli."

SEE WHOLE ARTICLE HERE 

BACKGROUND

On 5 July 2022, NATO signed the accession protocol for Sweden and Finland to join the alliance. There is no set amount of time to process NATO membership. But perhaps they will become members later this year.

Once Finland joins NATO, the 1,340-kilometre border with Russia will become a new NATO–Russia border.