July 28, 2009

INS Arihant Launched July 26, 2009

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The most complete photo(?) image (above) of Arihant to date. Courtesy of India Today.
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The slide (above) depicts insides of the Arihant. It is from an Indian Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) powerpoint presentation reproduced by Indian NDTV and other media outlets.

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Though launched on July 26, 2009 the complete shape of Arihant still appears to be classified (based on the heavy restrictions on photos permitted).
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There has been much speculation over the last two years about the size and design of India's Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV) nuclear sub program. Now the "launching" of the Arihant indicates that the weapons fit is as expected (K-15 then Agni III (K-4)). Early reports were of a Russian Charlie sized ATV 4 - 5,000+ tons. Puzzling and perhaps a pointer to the smaller vessel (for 3 vessels at least) was the 80 MW reactor reported all along. As it turns out India is planning to buld three Arihant Class then two larger SSBNs (carrying 12 Agni IIIs?) perhaps of the Akula II size?. So all in all I suspect our theories were mostly right ;)
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India's first locally built nuclear submarine (Arihant is Sanskrit for "Slayer of Enemies") was launched on July 26, 2009 at the Naval Dockyard at Visakhapatnam on India's east coast. The hull is complete. The boat is floating. The reactor will be started soon - Indian sources report. The Indian Navy is being rather cautious with their new boat. One report claims the Navy didn't want a media launch but were overruled by the Prime Minister's Office since the PM was under attack for perceived concessions to Pakistan and needed to burnish his national security credentials.
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The media were not allowed to take photos and they only saw Arihant after it was floated (thus hiding a good portion of the hull (sonar, prop ?) under water. Arihant is being built in a semi enclosed dock to keep it out of view of overhead satellites.
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The submarine is 110 meter long with an eventual crew of 70-100 men. For its first 3 years of trials 10-20 technicians (mainly Indians but some Russians) are likely to be onboard.
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Once designated the ATV, INS Arihant is the lead vessel of the class. The second and third submarines of the Arihant Class are due to be launched in 2010 and 2011. The three submarines of the class may be in commission with the Indian Navy by 2015-18.
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Development
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The ATV project started with the intent to design nuclear-powered fast attack submarines (SSNs). As nuclear armed nations placed greater reliance on the sea leg (SSBNs) of the nuclear triad and less on the more vulnerable air (bombers) and land legs (fixed silos and mobile launchers) India altered the course of the project towards producing SSBNs.
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The Plutonium Recyling Project (PRP) at the Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research (IGCAR) Kalpakkam was a cover name behind which BARC, a facility of the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE), built India’s first indigenous submarine Pressurised Water Reactor (PWR). This submarine reactor is in the so called "half boat" hull DAE built for testing prior to building the actual submarine (the Arihant) with an identical reactor. Both the land-test and reactor fitted in Arihant generate around 80 MW, powered by 40% enriched uranium. The relatively low HEU of 40% suggests regular refueling (every 10 years?) might be necessary. The Rare Materials Project (RMP) at Ratnahalli near Mysore, another DAE facility, produced the enriched uranium.
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The initial version of the land-test reactor ran into technical obstacles and delay after which Russian help was sought to resolve the design glitches during the early 2000s. Significantly Indian Prime Minister Singh at the July 26, 2009, launch thanked “our Russian friends for their consistent and invaluable cooperation, which symbolises the close strategic partnership that we enjoy with Russia”.
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The hulls for this class are built by L&T's Hazira shipbuilding facility in the state of Gujarat, northwestern India. . Tata Power built the control systems for the submarine. The systems for the steam turbine integrated with the PWR are supplied by Walchandnagar Industries.
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Future Weapons Fit
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The Arihant class may possibly be first armed with the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile but more likely it will have 4 tubes, each holding 3 x K-15 "Sagarika" SLBMs, see LAUNCHING PLATFORMS FOR PROJECT K-15 - so the Arihant may first field 12 K-15s. Then eventually one "K-X" SLBM per tube. The K-X is a version under development of the Agni-III IRBM. (hereinafter called the naval Agni III) - so four naval Agni IIIs per Arihant sub.
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The K-15s will be fired from under water. After the cold launch phase a booster will kick with one or more stages raising it to a 20 km altitude followed by a parabolic path to a target up to 750km distant. The K-15 missiles, developed by the DRDO, are already under production. The DRDO has test-fired them several times from submerged pontoons off the coast of Visakhapatnam. They can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads. They are 10.4 metres tall and weigh 6.3 tonnes each. Their warheads weigh about a 1,000 kg.

The 750 km range K-15 is an interim weapon (vastly shorter range, less throw weight than the Chinese SLBM JL-2) on the way to the naval Agni III). It is the naval Agni III which may be equivalent to the JL-2 but an Arihant will only have 4 naval Agni IIIs.
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This unique ability of a nuclear submarine to completely conceal itself underwater for up to 6 months will make it the most potent leg in in the nuclear triad. This is especially important given India's declared (though to date theoretical) no-first-use nuclear doctrine (which apparently does not apply to Pakistan). The nuclear submarine will provide a lethal second-strike capability to retaliate against a conceivable first preemptive strike by an enemy (mainly China).
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The Arihant class hull features twin flank-array sonars and Rafael broadband expendable anti-torpedo countermeasures.
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After launching of the 3 Arihant Class subs Indian planners envisage development of two SSBN size submarines - probably of similar size (12,000 ton) and design to the Akula II that India is due to lease from Russia early next year.
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Why has Arihant been officially unveiled now, in such an incomplete condition? Perhaps due to:

- national pride

- the Navy had to show it was getting somewhere. The need of the Indian Navy and weapons development organisations to show the public and politicians where the huge amount of development money, man hours and other resources have gone. Although the submarines were first envisaged in the 1970s ongoing problems, mainly with the reactor, have lead to delays.

- the Indian PM was under attack for perceived concessions to Pakistan and needed to burnish his national security credentials.

- a means of indicating great power status. Only the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (P5) have been able (or permitted) to develop and build nuclear submarines - that is the United States, RussiaFranceBritainChina. India has now forced its way into the nuclear sub owning club on the way to its broader campaign of achieving (P6) membership.

- the India-U.S. nuclear deal represents de facto recognition of India’s nuclear weapons program. This makes the unveiling at this time of a nuclear submarine that will be nuclear armed less politically sensitive.

- probably the most important reason to unveil now is to give the appearance of keeping up with China - to a limited extent. Arihant is a clear sign that India is looking to meet the future regional naval threat from China. The Chinese fleet of 62 submarines, with at least 10 of them nuclear-powered, is on the way to fielding the new JL-2 SLBM.
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The Chinese JL-2 missile has a strike range of over 7,200 km. When fired by Jin SSBNs from protected Chinese waters (the Jins need protection from highly active US anti-submarine forces) a JL-2 is capable of reaching India and Australia (including Perth and Brisbane). The required range would be 12,000 km to hit the continental US from Chinese protected waters around the SSBN base at Sanya, on Hainan Island, China.
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Some Extra Points
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It seems the DAE ran a facility called "Plutonium Recycling Project" that had nothing to do with Plutonium or recycling. With the Arihant launch, they threw open the doors of a facility restricted even to other DAE scientists and let the media take photos. They toured the "half boat" reactor and interviewed Anil Kakodar who stated they were able to build reactors to power future aircraft carriers if the Indian government so requested.
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The sub design is interesting. Nothing like the Charlie class. In the early 90s, India built two German HDW209 subs at Mazagon docks in Bombay and studied plans for the Project 75 Scorpenes. I think they learned quite a lot from those western boats. There is also a Russian Kilo that has been undergoing mid life refit for half a decade just meters away from the facility where the ATV was assembled. It has been literally cut open. Some speculate that the delay in refit was actually for training ATV-Arihant workmen.
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The limber slots and sail mounted planes don't look anything like the Akula (of the coming Nerpa/Chakra). Yet the Russian Ambassador to India stated in an interview that the ATV is based on the Akula:
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A high percentage of Indian arms equipment still has a high Russian content - with Arihant benefitting from Indian access to Western sub technology and those 140 Russian consultants.
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There is still the Agni SLBM version to be produced and the matter of its range. Given that India has been producing large diameter solid rockets (for its civilian space programme) for a lot longer than China, we may see this missile gap also close.
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Charting the development of the Arihant Class, particularly its reactor(s) and armament, is an ongoing process. More posts will follow.
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Pete

November 18, 2008

Long Range Japanese ("peaceful") Missiles Continued

1st Published Tuesday, November 18, 2008




Japan ICBM capable M-5 launched into space.

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UPI's Martin Sieff reported November 5, 2008 that:

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WASHINGTON, Nov. 5 (UPI) -- The Japanese government is slowly moving towards a decision to launch its own early warning ballistic missile defense satellite, the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper reported Wednesday [Nov 5, 2008].





The Tokyo newspaper said it had received access to a draft plan for ballistic missile defense drawn up by the secretariat of the Japanese government's headquarters for space development strategy. The report calls for an assessment on the value of deploying an early warning satellite that could monitor any potentially hostile missile launch.

In addition, the draft plan recommends carrying out a feasibility study on launching more civilian comsats -- communications satellites.

The plan also suggests Japan should start building smaller short-range and medium-range missiles for its Defense Forces, in addition to the bigger H-2A missiles currently in use.

The Yomiuri Shimbun said this language may be an indirect way of pushing through approval to build the GX missile that has become a matter of some controversy. Old-fashioned bureaucrats who are opposed to Prime Minister.
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Taro Aso's drive to develop a military space capability for Japan have opposed the GX project, and they managed to get the Space Activities Commission of the nation's Education Ministry, a stronghold for the old, cautious, pure research, non-military tradition in Japanese official space policymaking, to take a position opposing GX development.
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"While many question the need to go ahead with the GX development project, (this plan) is -tantamount to approving it," one official told the newspaper.

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However, the draft plan looks set to be smoothly approved and then implemented as national policy within the national budget for Fiscal Year 2009. The Yomiuri Shimbun said that at a meeting of the space development strategy secretariat Tuesday, it sent the draft plan on to be finally agreed upon at a second meeting to be held Nov. 27."
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Comment

H2

This rocket has no direct military missile value given its weight (445 tons) and with its strap-on booster configuration. However launches of this rocket give Japan ongoing experience in the use of the small and medium sized solid fuel boosters - handy for future development of missiles smaller missiles than the M-5. Wiki suggests "The H-IIA (H2A [or H-2A]) is a family of liquid-fuelled rockets providing an expendable launch system for the purpose of launching satellites into geostationary orbit."


It is manufactured by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) for the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, or JAXA. Launches occur at the Tanegashima Space Center. "


The H-2A has been launched 14 times since 2001 - only one failure - last launch February 23, 2008. Its maximum payload to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is 15 tons and to Geo Stationary Orbit 6 tons.
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M-5

A rocket ideal for conversion to an ICBM is Japan's variously called M-V, M5, M-5 or Mu-5,

At 30.8m high, 2.5m diameter and up to 139 tons it is clearly too big for ICBM duty however those specs are for 3 or 4 stages. Just two stages of a (say) 2m diameter scale down may be sufficient to hit Japan's most immediate enemies North Korea and China.


When one looks at Japan's experience, since 1966 in building the Mu range of booster rockets (with 7 smaller rockets before the M-5) Japan's ability to build manageable IRBMs and ICBMs is obvious.



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It may be coincidental or intentional that Japan progressed from "strap-on" boosters (associated with peaceful use) in the earlier Mu series (Wiki description) to an ICBM like configuration for the M-5.

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The
GX will move further in the direction of a space rocket as it is projected to weigh 210 tons and has a liquid fuel upper stage.


More on Japan's very short term nuclear weapons potential Japan's Potential ICBMs & Hoarding More Plutonium of April 29, 2008.

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Shorter Range Missiles


Only old figures jump out about shorter range Japanese missiles. The Japanese don't want to appear offensive, appaer to stress reliance on more powerful US forces and don't wish to be seen as competing with the US' near monopoly in missile production and sales.



MHI produces various anti-ship missiles including Type-88 Surface-to-Ship Missile (SSM) and Type-90 SSM for the Japanese military
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Specifications 1988 - Type 88 SSM1990 and Type 90 (SSM-1B), 5.1m long, 660 kg, Turbojet,

Maximum effective range - Type 88 SSM 180 km , - Type 90 (SSM-1B) 150 km
Inertial guidance + active radar homing
Deployment -
Type 88 SSM = 320 (?), Type 90 (SSM-1B) = About 40 as of 1994.

MHI also licence builds the US Patriot missile (see MHI site)


Pete

April 16, 2008

Japan's Potential ICBMs & Hoarding More Plutonium


The Japanese M5 rocket on launch. Capable of being modified into an ICBM
From Australia Fairfax news stable comes this article in April 26, 2008:

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"Between the Pacific Ocean coastline and the rich farmland of Rokkasho, in northern Japan, stands a vast and controversial monument to man's triumph over nature.
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The 12.7 trillion yen Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant, which can recycle up to 800 tonnes of nuclear waste a year for reuse, will launch the pacifist nation into a new era of nuclear power when it commences operations in July.
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Trade Minister Akira Amari has hailed it as "the future" of sustainable energy for Japan, which has virtually no natural resources and takes a third of its energy from 55 nuclear power plants.
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...Unlike Japan's conventional nuclear power plants, the Rokkasho complex will not burn nuclear fuel. Instead, it will recycle it by taking spent fuel from conventional plants and separating out usable elements such as uranium and plutonium from waste. Japan Nuclear Fuel aims to produce as many as four tonnes of recycled plutonium - roughly equal to 500 of the bombs dropped on Nagasaki - for reuse each year.
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Protestors say that because Japan, which has a "no surplus plutonium" policy, has yet to repatriate and use 37 tonnes of plutonium that it sent for recycling at European plants in the 1990s, the facility at Rokkasho is at best a spectacular waste of money and at worst a dubious exercise in building plutonium supplies. As it is, the mechanism needed to convert the plutonium into reusable pellet form will not be ready until 2012."
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Comments
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Japan's nuclear capabilities are a future concern for Australia and Japan having access to greater amounts of plutonium are a more immediate worry.
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Japan already has a quick nuclear "breakout" capacity in the form of more than 7 tonnes of Plutonium (the nuclear explosive of choice). Japan also has the capability to build ICBM from the existing M5 rocket.
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Japan's currently pacifist constitution has not stopped it from building one of the strongest navies and airforces in the region. The Japanese also suffers the potential threat of North Korea which may eventually a short IRBM flight away. US protection may not be forever so Japan is quietly leaving its own nuclear weapon options open. This may be one reason Japan appears to be willing to wear the environmental risks of operating the Rokkasho plant.
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Pete

April 11, 2007

Saudi Ballistic Missiles - Modernisation of Missile Force?


The Saudis may still have around 50 of these China provided
 
CSS-2 (aka DF-3A) IRBMs, designed for nuclear warheads.
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The current political instability in Pakistan and regional tension over Iran's nuclear aspirations suggests its time to look at the shadows that the media and Government policy-makers ignore.

In 1987-88 Saudi Arabia secretly
purchased 40 to 60 long-range CSS-2 (aka DF-3A) ballistic missiles from China. CSS-2s where specifically designed by China to carry nuclear warheads (ranging up to 3 megatons) but China removed the warheads from those missiles sold to Saudi Arabia.

The missiles have a range of around 3,000km and a payload up to 2,150 kg. The missiles where deployed in 1990 at two Saudi Arabian military bases, al-Sulayyil and al-Karj (al-Jafr), 500km and 100km south of Riyadh, respectively. Each site is
reported to include four to six concrete launch pads.

When sold to the Saudis the missiles were believed to have an accuracy of only 1km Circular Error of Probability (
CEP). Because the CSS-2 missiles still may not be accurate enough to be used effectively against point targets with conventional munitions, analysts speculate that Saudi Arabia may have envisaged (or still intends) to have nuclear warheads for the missiles.

PETE COMMENT

Why haven’t we heard that the Saudis bought or possess around 50 Chinese made ballistic missiles? Perhaps just as the US ignored Saudi nationals, with possible al Qaeda associations, entering the US before 9/11 the US may have decided to ignore these missiles when deployed in 1990 because they are "safely Saudi". Maybe its assumed the Saudis can never bite American interests.

LATER MACHINATIONS

China has reportedly approached the Saudis with offers to sell much more modern and accurate 600-km range CSS-6 and 1800-km range DF-21 (CSS-5) solid-fueled missiles. In 2013 I wrote futher about Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and Saudi tied aid. 

Meanwhile Saudi Arabia is 
examining the prospect of raising the level of its strategic relations with nuclear armed Pakistan. The Saudis have accelerated talks with Islamabad for the purchase of Pakistani weapons as well as joint military and strategic projects. Riyadh may be seeking to exploit Pakistan's expertise in missiles and nuclear weapons.