President Biden has been taking the credit for the latest Hamas-Israel ceasefire deal. The deal constitutes Biden's outgoing swan song after more than a year of failed ceasefire deals.
The ceasefire is scheduled to begin
on Sunday January 19, 2025. Hopefully It will last past
Trump's Inauguration which occurs the next day - January 20, 2025.
The standard advisor
prediction approach is glass half empty, meaning be slightly pessimistic -
rather than an optimistic fool.
Marika
Sosnowski, Postdoctoral research fellow at the University of
Melbourne, Australia, advised on January 16, 2025 “Israel and Hamas have agreed
to a ceasefire. It doesn’t guarantee a peaceful end to a devastating
war.” See
all of Marika Sosnowski’s
excellent article at https://theconversation.com/israel-and-hamas-have-agreed-to-a-ceasefire-it-doesnt-guarantee-a-peaceful-end-to-a-devastating-war-247338
Marika Sosnowski is implicitly pessimistic when she notes:
“In structure and content, this ceasefire closely
resembles numerous others that have been proposed over
the past year, including the 7+2
day truce agreed in November 2023.”
“As US President Joe Biden said,
this agreement “is the exact framework of the deal I proposed in May” [2024].
“During the first phase, there will
be a temporary suspension of military operations by Israel and
Hamas, as well as the withdrawal of Israeli forces east towards the border
between Israel and Gaza and away from densely populated areas.”
“There will also be a temporary
suspension of air activity (for military and reconnaissance purposes)
in the Gaza Strip, particularly when hostages are released.”
“Over the past 12 months, Hamas has agreed to the
text of a ceasefire a number of times only
to have the terms altered by
Israel and no agreement reached.”
“Hamas has tried to
alter the ceasefire’s terms too.”
“But because of the power
differential, it [Hamas] has been relatively unsuccessful in pressuring Israel
to agree to its demands.”
“…But it is telling that in the past, Israel has
simply arrested
other Palestinians or re-arrested many
of those released under similar deals.”
“…there are currently no written
assurances the ceasefire will continue beyond the first phase if there is no
agreement reached for the second phase.”
“For similar deals that were
previously on the table, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made
clear he would continue the war to destroy Hamas after the initial
phase.”
“The war between Hamas and Israel is of course not
over. This ceasefire simply marks the start of a new phase.”
See all of Marika Sosnowski’s excellent
article at https://theconversation.com/israel-and-hamas-have-agreed-to-a-ceasefire-it-doesnt-guarantee-a-peaceful-end-to-a-devastating-war-247338
5 comments:
Brilliant analysis Pete and more so Marika. Israel's Cabinet are rejecting the ceasefire deal already, even before Sunday's kickoff.
Netanyahu chose to prolong the war until Trump becomes President giving Trump all the credit for achieving the release of the remaining hostages. Also Trump can personally get Netanyahu off the hook in several political and legal ways.
Trump was supposed to be the type of head kicker rightwing Israeli politicians could love and respect. But Israel's Cabinet know they have Trump's US by the balls.
Thanks Peter and Marika. I agree its hard to give credit to Biden at this point given the deal was decided largely by Israel. The other regional player that could take some credit is Erdogan of Turkey. Turkey seems to have been the external power most responsible for supporting the recent overthrow of Assad in Syria. This has greatly strengthened Israel’s position vis a vis both Turkish and Lebanese borders in the north with Hezbolah weakened and cut off. So now Israel is in a better position to agree terms with Hamas. But Biden didn’t cause that either.
Thanks Anonymous at 1/17/2025 1:21 PM
Yes. Netanyahu is more likely to be working towards closer relations with the incoming Trump Government (including wanting even US higher military aid) then patting outgoing Biden on the back.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/16/israels-netanyahu-says-cabinet-will-not-meet-to-approve-ceasefire-deal reports deep opposition in the Israeli Security Cabinet that may eventually and rapidly dispose of the ceasefire deal:
"Later on Thursday [Jan 16, 2024] Israel’s National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said he would resign from the government if it ratifies the ceasefire deal in Gaza [it later did ratify it], which he has strongly opposed.
“The deal that is taking shape is a reckless deal,” Gvir said in a televised statement, adding it would “erase the achievements of the war” by releasing hundreds of Palestinian fighters and withdrawing from strategic areas in Gaza, leaving Hamas undefeated."
“If this irresponsible deal is approved and implemented, we the members of Jewish Power [the far right party that Gvir leads] will submit letters of resignation to the prime minister,” he said."
Time will tell whether the Ceasefire Deal will survive (say by April).
Hi Anonymous at 1/18/2025 11:21 PM
I agree. Even though the ceasefire deal was formally concluded during Biden's presidency world leaders have already been negotiating with president presumptive Trump. In that vein Netanyahu more likely persuaded the Israeli Cabinet to accept the deal with the aim of better relations with the incoming Trump Government, including wanting even US higher military aid.
Overall with Israel and Turkey-HTS diminishing the power of Shiite forces such as Hezbollah and Syria's Shiite regime Israel's main enemy Iran has diminished in power. This gives Israel a stronger position to make a deal with Sunni Hamas - with Hamas can now only be expecting Iran's support to a diminished extent.
Also I think Trump is more likely to consider a major US-Israeli attack on Iran (unfinished business from his first term?) than Biden ever did.
Cheers Pete
Pete there was another interesting article in the Kyiv Independent today that I think bells the cat on growing Turkish influence in Syria. The new Syrian government (HTS) has banned goods from Russia, Iran and Israel - but not Turkey! I think its pretty clear now who is calling the shots in Syria. https://kyivindependent.com/syria-bans-goods-from-russia-iran-and-israel/
Interesting that Kyiv media was the first to report this. In hindsight I should not be surprised. Turkey and Ukraine have a common enemy (Russia) and are getting closer in areas of military cooperation. Turkey is building some new corvettes for the Ukrainian navy. So Ukraine media must have good Turkish sources.
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