As soon as Donald Trump's newly-appointed Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, took the oath of office on 21 January 2025, his first scheduled international engagement (the same day) was with the Foreign Ministers of the other three countries of the QUAD. The QUAD is the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue - comprising the US, Australia, India and Japan.
A short joint QUAD statement was released following the meeting, echoing all the same talking points as established during the Biden administration's term, signalling a degree of continuity.
The text of the joint statement included: "...strengthening a Free and Open Indo-Pacific...[and promoting]...economic opportunity..."
So the joint QUAD statement, via the US State Department, could be seen as promoting free trade which is in contradiction to the Trump Administration contemplating major tariffs against all foreign countries including QUAD members Australia, India and Japan.
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| L to R: QUAD Foreign Ministers Japanese Minister of Foreign Affairs Takeshi Iwaya, Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs Penny Wong. (Photo courtesy NDTV) --- |
After the joint QUAD session, Secretary Rubio held one-on-one bilateral meetings with the three Foreign Ministers. In the meeting with Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs Penny Wong, the following statement was made regarding AUKUS:
"...Both discussed efforts to continue security cooperation through AUKUS and bilateral defense initiatives..."
This fell short of reaffirming the US would supply Virginia submarines to Australia under AUKUS. Also Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense, who could be seen as having major carriage for the QUAD and especially AUKUS, has not yet been given Senate confirmation.
It is too early to decide which way the Trump administration might go with regard to initiatives like AUKUS or QUAD as President Trump is unpredictable. However, the State Department's early engagement with the QUAD members and with Australia under AUKUS sends the message that the INDOPAC might be the primary focus area of Trump's foreign policy. All three Ministers were among the handful of foreign representatives invited to the Trump inauguration. This may indicate the Trump Administration sees the INDOPAC as more important than Europe (and within it NATO). In Europe Trump is calling for a quick end to the conflict in Ukraine by placing pressure on Putin for a peace deal.
3 comments:
An excellent article Gessler.
A day after you published Pete Hegseth, a US Army National Guard retired Major, no higher, became Secretary of Defense. Normally Defense Secretary would go to a former senior General or politician with an appropriate record of long administrative and leadership experience. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Hegseth
Instead very junior Hegseth, more a pro-Trump activist, with no policy experience, has become the main politician with responsibility over AUKUS.
Although Hegseth has been a mildly successful TV personality, a career path that also launched Trump to the most powerful leader on Earth.
Australia, under ANZUS and AUKUS, very much see the US as its senior military ally. In that respect it is Major (retd) Hegseth who will be senior to and more influential than his Australian opposite number, Deputy PM and Defence Minister Richard Marles.
Trump's unpredictable brainwaves on the QUAD or AUKUS (if he's ever heard of them) won't be argued or informed by an experienced Defense Secretary.
India, fortunately enjoys non-aligned status, which won't make India's vastly experienced Rajnath Singh subservient to former Major Hegseth.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rajnath_Singh
Regards Pete
Thanks Gessler and Pete. I agree Trump is unpredictable. As for his officials, there are some for and against AUKUS. Critically one, Elbridge Colby, is for US engagement in the Indo Pacific but against US SSNs for the RAN on the grounds the USN has a shortage.
Colby knows a lot more about subs than Hesgeth does. The question will be how much influence he has. He is now Under Secretary of Defense for Policy.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/sub-cabinet-appointments/
His views have been reported before.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-03/trumps-former-defence-advisor-slams-crazy-aukus-sub-deal/103280982
Thanks Anonymous at 1/28/2025 9:55 AM
I really didn't know much about very articulate Elbridge Colby. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-03/trumps-former-defence-advisor-slams-crazy-aukus-sub-deal/103280982 you kindly provided shows what a persuasive speaker he is.
I'll wait until the US Senate confirms his appointment (shouldn't take too long) and then run an article on Colby next week.
Cheers Pete
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