It looks like NATO and Israeli intelligence agencies have their work cut out clarifying what is happening to the Russian bases and what deals Russia is making with Turkey’s ambitious President Erdoğan. The agencies need all sources and methods: informants in the region, SigInt and satellite imagery.
Turkey’s apparent power over Syria’s new Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) regime gives Turkey considerable power and latitude. Turkish forces have invaded large parts of northern Syria without HTS resistance (or US complaints?) – in order for Turkey to destroy the Kurds to the extent possible.
HTS’s advance south from Aleppo was so rapid and efficient it is reminiscent of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria’s (ISIS‘s) conquest of large parts of Syria and Iraq in 2014. At worst ISIS elements might be the real power behind HTS.
Like the Arab Spring in 2011 any optimism that the Sunni Jihadist HTS takeover of Syria will bring lasting peace and Western style democracy should be tempered by reality. While most Sunnis (74% of Syria’s population) want peace, the HTS regime are liable to round up and eventually kill many of the Shiites (13%) who dominated ex-President Assad’s old regime. Also the 300,000+ Syrian Christians are under threat. Shiites and Christians may be trying to escape over Syria's borders in large numbers.
Generally a bleak picture. One hopes HTS might surprise with continuing moderation. But we shouldn’t bank on it.
6 comments:
Looks like it's either a Japanese or a German design for Australia's
new Frigates:
"The Australian government has shortlisted German and Japanese
shipbuilders for Australia’s Sea 3000 frigate project, as Korean and
Spanish contenders fell by the wayside.
Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) has offered the MEKO A-200
platform, while Mitsubishi Heavy Industries submitted its improved
Mogami class for this estimated A$10 billion (US$6.4 billion)
program."
Source:
https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2024/12/05/australia-narrows-its-frigate-search-down-to-german-japanese-designs/
To Anon@4:32PM 12/09/2024
I sure love the look of the Mogami-class. Personally, I hope it gets selected (and that a deal goes through).
Speaking of the Mogami, it carries the UNICORN integrated communications & ESM mast. Japan has recently signed a deal with India to co-develop a version of this mast for India's upcoming surface combatants (probably for the Project-18 destroyer or upgraded Project-17B frigates).
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-japan-resolve-to-boost-co-development-of-military-hardware/articleshow/115572932.cms?from=mdr
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_18-class_destroyer
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_17B-class_frigate
Overall, I think it's good that Japan is coming out of its self-imposed arms export embargo. It's better for the Indo-Pacific this way.
Cheers.
Thanks Pete, its been an interesting week for both local and international politics.
Like Gessler I hope Australia goes for the Mogami frigate. TKM and Mitsubishi are both quality shipbuilders but the Mogami has many advantages. Its multi role capability including MCM is very desirable. Mine warfare is a weakness in the RAN following the relative failure of the Arafura build. 11 Mogamis would solve that.
On local politics, I think you can draw a clear line between Albo’s gestures towards the Greens and the Jewish community. The Greens are mainly competing with Labor for seats and so Albo wants to do them no favours. Whereas the Teals are competing with Liberals for seats and so Albo would like to help them win. Several Teal seats in inner Melbourne have significant Jewish communities. Albo wants to keep them on side so they elect Teals not Liberals. Keating was right- self interest explains everything in politics.
On Syrian politics obviously we are all waiting to see how the new government forms. So far though it looks like the big winner is Turkey and UAE, not ISIL and Saudi Arabia. The HTS split from ISIL back in 2016 and is being supplied by Turkey. Now the HTS controls western and central Turkey, the Kurds the east, and Jordanian backed groups a small area in the south. See https://theconversation.com/what-syrias-rebel-takeover-means-for-the-regions-major-players-turkey-iran-and-russia-245581
Turkey is no friend of Russia so the Russian bases are surely finished. Even if the HTs does not take them, the oil pipeline from eastern Syria to the coast runs through Homs which the HTS now control. So the HTS could block oil supplies to the air and naval base, rendering them useless. Note that Russia started withdrawing as soon as Homs fell, not waiting to see how the battle for Damascus went.
As for how things turn out, history suggests there are sure to be get squares. The HTS when advancing said that Syrian army ordinary soldiers who surrendered would not be harmed. They made no guarantees about the entire officer corps of Assad’s army. If Turkey is behind the HTS the Kurds might also be in trouble.
Thanks Scott for your 3 comments.
I'm neutral about a Mogami or TKMS vessel in Australia’s Sea 3000 frigate project.
I'm hoping an Albanese Labor government (even if it wins the 2025 Election) doesn't need to rely on a large Greens-Independents-Teals crossbench in the House of Reps. Dutton (like Abbott years ago) might be able to exploit such a situation and take power in 2028 - if Dutton has not already won in March to May 2025.
Now the HTS controls western and central SYRIA the whole situation is unstable. Like when President Tito died https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yugoslavia#Breakup leaving the former Yugoslavia in civil war and subsequent fragmentation, Syria's future doesn't bode well.
Hoping Russia's troubles in Syria discredit Putin further as a "losing" President. May Putin step down sooner than he expected.
Cheers Pete
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