Who wins the US Presidential Election has a major impact on Australian foreign and defence policies (including AUKUS) and on US trade policies. There are 17 days to go until the 5/6 November Election.
On October 20, 2024 Kamala Harris’s lead over Trump has declined from 2.7% last week to 2.2% (that is less than the standard statistical error of 4%) this week.
Hence no candidate is clearly or statistically ahead. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Harris_and_Trump
Most of the news of the US 5 November election results may get to Australia on Wednesday 6 November.
538 Electoral College votes are up for grabs, So Harris or Trump need 270 votes to win. At 20 October Harris has 226 fairly sure votes; Trump has 219 fairly sure votes. Swing state votes are 93. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Electoral_College_forecasts
Almost all 43 of the 50 US states vote for the same parties election after election. So it
is up to the 7 swing states to decide the Election. Of the swing
states Pennsylvania has 19 votes H leads; North
Carolina 16 votes T leads; Georgia 16 T leads; Michigan 15 H leads; Arizona
11 T leads; Wisconsin 10 H leads; and Nevada 6 votes H leads together totalling the 93
swing state votes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Swing_states
On 20 Oct Australia’s Sportsbet
tips Trump to win 1.67 (Harris 2.25) https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/us-politics/2024-us-presidential-election-winning-party-5621990
Australia’s TAB tips
Trump to win 1.65 (Harris 2.30) https://www.tab.com.au/sports/betting/Politics/competitions/US%20Election
Conclusion
The numbers and predictions are so close it is unlikely the election will have a clear Presidential winner on 5 November.
More likely is several days of postal vote counting in the swing state of Nevada and then a few days of recounts in all 7 swing states will arrive at the winner.
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