"The ASEAN submarine?" by Shawn Chung

India and the ASEAN countries (Map courtesy IndiaASEAN.org) ---

Pete Comment: My good friend Shawn Chung has provided the wide ranging essay below, which highlights the possibilities of Naval Group, TKMS and South Korea providing an increasingly standardized "ASEAN submarine". Shawn also comments on possibilities India might become a major submarines for export builder in the Indo-Pacific region. New types of AIP and LIBs also present new capability and marketing possibilities.

India's future submarine sales might be in conjunction with India marketing its formidable BrahMos multiple launch mode, including SLCM, supersonic cruise missile. India is also joint developing a hypersonic BrahMos-II cruise missile. Of course Hypersonic Cruise Missiles represent a revolutionary technical and strategic change that all great powers are developing and many customer countries, like Australia, might buy.

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"The ASEAN submarine?"

By Shawn Chung 

When I did my research about the submarine programs of seven Southeast Asian countries (https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2023/05/state-of-submarine-forces-in-asean-2023.html), two recent occurrences in the submarine market could impact the future acquisition decisions of ASEAN countries, and there is a small probability that a single class of submarines will be selected by navies across South East Asia.

Naval Group Scorpene

The Scorpene class is an export model designed by Naval Group in the 1990s, with the first boat (for the Chilean navy) laid down in 1999, and is in service with the Chilean, Malaysian, Indian (Kalvari-class) and Brazilian navies, with displacement ranging from 1,565 tons to 1,900 tons. 

On the 18th of July 2023, India signed an MoU with France for three more Indian-build Scorpenes, with an Indian created AIP module (https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1703456&s=08 website "down" at present, this alternate works ), which will be retrofitted to the Kalvari class. (https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/07/india-to-procure-rafale-m-more-scorpene-submarines/)

India restarting Scorpene production could interest both Indonesia and the Philippines (who may select the class for their national submarine programs), especially if India/Naval Group were to sweeten their bids with a VLS module for the upcoming BrahMos-NG cruise missile, which is 2/3rd the size of the original 8.2m BrahMos A. The Philippines is about to commission its first BrahMos A shore-based battalion, while Indonesia is in discussion to buy the missile system. (https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/india-russia-defence-firm-eyes-200-mln-missile-deal-with-indonesia-2023-03-15/)

Malaysia also has a further requirement for two new submarines by 2035, and it would be logical, from a training and supply perspective, for the Malaysian Navy to acquire more Scorpene-class submarines, while their two Scorpene submarines have already spent 14 years in service, and are due for MLU. 

The Scorpene class was initially offered with a MEMSA AIP system that used oxygen and ethanol combustion to generate power. In 2019 Naval Group announced a second-generation the FC2G AIP https://www.naval-group.com/en/full-speed-tomorrow module, which extracts hydrogen from diesel to combine pure oxygen within a fuel cell to generate power, increasing submerged endurance by 18 days (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgIWbOtvr3o)

I personally find Naval Groups FC2G AIP to be overcomplicated, as it uses a three step refining process to extract hydrogen from diesel fuel, then injects the refined hydrogen into a fuel cell to generate power. Also, from Naval Group's mock-ups, liquid oxygen is stored in a large tank within the AIP hull module, which could be a safety hazard. In comparison, TKMS/Siemens' fuel cell system, which is used in the Dolphin, Dakar-class, Type-212, Type-214 and Type-218SG classes use oxygen and hydrogen stored in tanks outside the pressure hull.  https://topwar.ru/uploads/posts/2015-03/1425435374_superdolphincomparisondiagram.jpg

India's DRDO-designed AIP module for its Scorpenes' "generates hydrogen onboard", so it's likely the same system as FC2G, and could be the result of a technology transfer from Naval Group. ( https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/lt-drdo-sign-contract-for-aip-system-for-submarines-of-indian-navy/articleshow/101187577.cms?from=mdr )

How the new Scorpene order affects India’s convoluted Project-75I program ( https://www.business-standard.com/india-news/project-75i-what-is-it-and-how-has-it-progressed-since-1997-123071200224_1.html ) is anyone’s guess at this point in time. After almost all bidders withdrew or were disqualified in mid-2022, India rescheduled the deadline for August 2023, with the Naval Group Barracuda, Navantia’s S-80 Plus, the TKMS Type-214 or Type-218 (https://frontierindia.com/p-75i-project-germany-and-india-are-close-to-a-deal-to-build-diesel-submarines-jointly/?expand_article=1) and the Hanwha Ocean’s DSME-3000 are still in the running.

Hanwha Ocean DSME-3000

(I can’t find any designation change since they became Hanwha Ocean (HO))

https://youtu.be/0vWdhmQuLoc

South Korea's Hanwha Ocean (formerly DSME) produces the 3,600 ton KSS-III Batch 2 submarine class for the South Korean Navy, and is offering two export variants - the DSME-2000 and the lithium-ion battery equipped DSME-3000, with the DSME-3000 in India’s Project-75I contest. 

The KSS-III bears the distinction of being the first and currently only AIP submarine class with an SLBM capability - using the Hyunmoo 4-4, with a conventional warhead and a 500 km range.

At the recent MADEX 2023, Hanwha Ocean signed an agreement with Babcock Canada to develop the “perfect submarine” for the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP) (https://youtu.be/JGSHtCMJ-yc) while this project has only just started and an RFI has not been issued, we do know that Canada will require 12 long range conventional submarines, which need to be introduced in the early-2030s to replace the Victoria class. (https://maritime-executive.com/article/canadian-navy-makes-plans-to-replace-aging-victoria-class-subs)

Also at MADEX 2023, Janes Defense reported that Hanwha Ocean had sweetened their offer to the Phillipines Navy with an update to the 1,400ton DSME 1400-class with KSS III systems - including sensor, combat and propulsion systems (without AIP).

HO’s latest pitch to the PN could also impact Indonesia’s stalled Improved Nagapasa (DSME-1400) submarine program (https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2023/05/indonesia-state-of-submarine-forces-in.html). We know that Indonesia now intends to buy 2 AIP submarines, and Hanwha Ocean could offer a revision with the DSME-2000 or DSME-3000 design instead of the Improved Nagapasa.

Conclusion

Since India announced it was buying three Naval Group Scorpene-class with AIP, there has been zero articles speculating on the state of the Project-75I program, though I personally think it will be canceled and replaced by 6 AIP Scorpenes. Whether India’s machinations will impact the submarine procurement programs of the Philippines and Indonesia is likely, as both countries already buying Indian arms. A Scorpene built by PT Pal in Indonesia for both navies with Indian-sourced components (and modules) is likely. This could include MLU/Production for Malaysia, and possibly for other ASEAN navies, such as Vietnam, (India just gifted Vietnam a 30 year old frigate).

South Korea is now being called the arsenal of the free world (https://thediplomat.com/2023/07/is-south-korea-ready-to-be-a-global-pivotal-arms-exporter/), offering excellent products like the T/A-50 light jet, the K9 Thunder SPH and the K21 IFV (which just won an Australian Army order). In Southeast Asia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam already use arms supplied by South Korea.

With the Hanwha Group taking control of DSME earlier this year, we are now seeing a more aggressive marketing push by Hanwha Ocean into the global submarine market.