May 18, 2023

Australia Wants AUKUS Tech Transfer Treaty pre-Trump

Richard Wood, for Australia’s 9news, reports in part  , May 17, 2023,

[Australia’s] “Defence Minister Richard Marles [warned May 17, 2023] the full potential of the AUKUS agreement can only be fulfilled with a "seamless" exchange of technology and information between Australia and the US. 

Australia will spend up to $368 billion by 2055 to [buy 3 to 5 second hand Virginia SSNs and] build a new fleet of eight nuclear-propelled submarines in Adelaide to enter service in the 2040s under the landmark defence pact signed by Australia, the US and Britain.

But a secondary part of AUKUS also calls for cooperation on other defence technologies, such as undersea warfare, hypersonic weapons and artificial intelligence.

In a speech to the American Chamber of Commerce in Adelaide today, Marles said the government is "focused on developing asymmetric technologies that will help deter future conflicts".

But the exchange of technologies between the US and Australia faced "vast and complex" barriers, such as US export controls, he said.

"What is really clear is that if we are to realise the ambition of AUKUS, the transfer of technology and information between Australia and the US needs to be seamless," he said.

[as well as US Virginia and future UK SSNs] “… Priorities are hypersonic missiles, directed energy, autonomous systems, quantum technology, information warfare and long-range firepower…”

MORE SEE HERE  

Pete Comment

My hunch is that Australia is angling for a comprehensive tech transfer treaty like the 1958 UK–US Mutual Defence AgreementThat 1958 UK-US bilateral treaty centered on nuclear submarine technology and nuclear explosives. Hence: 

“The treaty provided for the sale to the UK of one complete nuclear submarine propulsion plant, as well as ten years' supply of enriched uranium to fuel it. Other nuclear material was also acquired from the US under the treaty. Some 5.4 tonnes of UK-produced plutonium was sent to the US in return for 6.7 kilograms (15 lb) of tritium and 7.5 tonnes of highly enriched uranium (HEU) between 1960 and 1979, but much of the HEU was used not for weapons but as fuel for the growing fleet of British nuclear submarines. The treaty paved the way for the Polaris Sales Agreement, and the Royal Navy ultimately acquired entire weapons systems, with the UK Polaris programme and Trident nuclear programme using American missiles with British nuclear warheads.

Australia is not providing Tritium to the US. Rather Australia is proving cutting edge, third generation SILEX Laser Enrichment of Uranium technology to the US. A SILEX Enrichment plant is planned for Paducah, Kentucky, as a type of “reverse AUKUS”, Australia to US, tech transfer.

Australia probably wants to secure this comprehensive AUKUS tech transfer treaty in the little time Biden may remain President. Already the Republican dominated US House of Representatives may make such a treaty a long shot. What may kill such a treaty is a return to an alliance disrespecting Trump Administration after the November 2024 elections.

A wide range of Australian defence experts, academics, former defence officials and former defence chiefs consider the AUKUS submarine deals to have been politically rushed, ie. while Biden is still President. They want extensive government enquiries with public access. 

It is understandable, however, that AUKUS sub advocates in the Australian Government do not want too much SSN decision-making falling and failing within an Isolationist Trump Presidential Term from January 2025.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Pete,

I don't know if this video has been referenced earlier.

Can Australia handle its new fleet of nuclear submarines? | Four Corners a lot about Collins

/Kjell

Pete said...

Hi /Kjell

Yes Saab should be involved in a Collins LOTE extending the service of some Collins until 2040.

This is because a sufficiently trained and experienced FULLY Australian Virginia crew might not exist until the late 2030s.

I've noticed the US has VERY SIGNIFICANTLY ceased (maybe just at a public level?) making promises about delivering 3 Virginias to Australia during the 2030s.

Biden's and Albanese's photo op in San Diego, March 14, 2023 only amounts to political theater because neither is in a position to determine what can occur in intervening presidencies through to 2033.

If Australia, at a minimum, gets a moored Los Angeles class sub in 2033, mainly for nuclear reactor training, I will be pleasantly surprised.

An already moored training sub possibility is USS San Fransisco (MTS-711) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_San_Francisco_(SSN-711)#Final_deployment_and_conversion .

Another is USS La Jolla (MTS-701).

Cheers Pete

Anonymous said...

Hi Pete
The Silex process has limited military value (except for "discrete" U enrichment under the radar of the NPFT ..)
It has very significant economical and environmental value however. Being very selective it allow the economical recovery of spent U (the "tail") to enrich back to the 0.7 % natural level thus limiting the need for freshly mined yellow cake and extending U supply
This the reason why Aus and Canada (CAMEO), the leading mining U world producers back this process..!
With Pu extraction /MOX fuel it multiply the U ressources well into the 21 st century

With the war in Ukr. there is a need to eliminate russian supply.Russia do not produce much U compared to Kaz. Can Aus , Niger or Namibia..but offers ultra low prices for toll processing/enrichment due to huge depreciated facilities to th US and to some extent to France for the "tails".(The Siversk plant alone in Siberia is 5 time larger than the GB II plant in Pierrelatte, one of the largest in Europe)
GB II plant is in the process of increasing by 50 % its capacity.In the recent agreement beetween Biden and Macron it is visualized to eliminate Russian Mfg. France will deliver enriched to the US from GBII while the US will provide France ,the tail processing from the new Silex plant.Volumes commitments are critical for these very large projects
Canada , Aus mining company are likely to move into LEU supply and ultimately to fuel rods..Up the value chain
After all the Gulf Emirates and the Saudis have become a leading suppliers of plastics , fertilisers
At the ame times Kaz. is negotiating with Azerb. and Georgia to eliminate via the Casp/Black seas the Russian route for its U ore

Pete said...

Hi Anonymous at 5/19/2023 9:33 PM. I envisage Australia following India's successful defacto legal nuclear weapons state example if China becomes too aggressive.

In India's case it concluded the US–India Civil Nuclear Agreement with a 2005 joint statement by then Indian PM Singh and US President George W. Bush, under which India agreed to separate its civil nucleal facilities under IAEA safeguards
and India's military nuclear facilities NOT under IAEA safeguards https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93United_States_Civil_Nuclear_Agreement

Significantly, this was AFTER India's 1974 and 1998 nuclear weapon tests. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Nuclear_weapons

India, not even a US ally concluded, such an agreement with the US after nuclear weapons tests so why not loyal ally, Australia, next.

Naturally Australia could cut the US out of Australia's defence loop* if the US follows a double standard that even preferenced India (India demonstrating it is almost an ally of Russia in view of India's non-reaction to Russia's Ukraine invasion...)

* in which case an Israel-Australia nuclear weapons agreement could be a serious option...

After all Australia and the US have already breached the nuclear submarine "Taboo" under AUKUS. Why not go another much quicker and effective nuclear weapons Taboo further?

Cheers Pete

Pete said...

In a useful test of any Republican resolve to honour Biden's AUKUS intentions is the following.

Biden is to ask Congress (with its Republican dominated House of Representatives and Democrat Senate majority) to give Australian companies special status under the US Defense Production Act. This, in theory, would give Australian companies the same treatment as US companies.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/20/joe-biden-apologises-to-anthony-albanese-after-cancelling-sydney-quad-meeting-at-last-minute

This would not give Aus companies access to F-22 technology or how to build submarine reactors.

Pete said...

US-Australian corporate interaction in critical minerals (eg. Lithium and Rare Earths) and energy (eg. "clean" hydrogen and, I venture, SILEX U enrichment) is another area of "free" G7 country and Quad discussion.

Anonymous said...

More nuke sub operations in Australia:

"In the years ahead, US and British subs will visit Australia more
frequently, and as soon as 2027, those navies will begin basing
attack submarines — one British and as many as four from the US —
at HMAS Stirling, an Australian navy base near the city of Perth
on the Indian Ocean coast."

See:

https://news.yahoo.com/us-navy-eyes-submarine-help-141500694.html

Pete said...

Thanks Anonymous at 5/22/2023 10:43 AM

For https://news.yahoo.com/us-navy-eyes-submarine-help-141500694.html

See my https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2023/05/usn-submarines-using-australias-fleet.html of May 22, 2023 where I indicate the unique value for US SSNs of the very southerly position of Australia's Fleet Base West.

Cheers Pete