Some Comments on Taiwan's Political and Strategic Environment

Anonymous on May 9, 2020 commented:

The US may very well use the claims by other countries as a means to push back on China in an unofficial way. I think that is a dynamic that the South East Asia countries in general are aware of and try so sort of learn towards a balancing between China and the US. If the US uses Taiwan's claim in that way as well, it still falls short of supporting Taiwan to the extent of enabling it to declare independence. Taiwan's defense capabilities rely much on the Foreign Military Sales Agreement with the US.

The number of Taiwanese workers in the PRC has decreased tremendously since 2016. Currently at around 400,000. (see https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3839550 )

The rise to 1,000,000 coincided with Taiwanese President Ma Jing-geou who had a pro-China policy approach. He was President from 2008 to 2016, winning a second term. But China in that period was still a question mark in the geopolitical sense. Many other countries have been expanding trade with China at that time as well, including Australia.

Even though in 2008, the Charter 08 by Chinese intellectuals was shot down by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and democracy advocate Liu Xiaobo was arrested, Beijing had the 2008 Olympics. The general mood internationally was "if China develops a middle class, they will naturally evolve into greater openness and democracy". So its kind of hard to hold Taiwan to account in increasing workers in the PRC in these years.

The US and others let the PRC onto the World Trade Organisation (WTO) around in 2001. So the gates of open market/economy forces were opened. And the PRC will naturally try to entice Taiwan into unification sentiments under CCP rule.

Additionally, even US military equipment includes parts from Taiwan, if I recall correctly, Taiwanese bits are in the Patriot 3 missile system. Some computer chips of Chinese origin are used in other US military equipment. It is a questionable knotty mess. But instead of having that be used as a point to discredit efforts within Taiwan to keep unofficial independence and to discredit Taiwan's efforts to achieve official nation status, it should be a point used to reduce the interlocking of parts and businesses in the PRC-Taiwan-US supply lines.

But later, PRC activities around the Senkaku islands and Sarborough Shoal around 2012 and then later with the Hong Kong umbrella movement in 2014, and the beginning of the massive island making in the Spratly island group in 2014/2015, Liu Xiaobo remaining in prison up until his death in July 2017, the PRC buying an old aircraft carrier from the Ukraine [also see] on the basis of "turning it into a floating casino" in 1998 instead becoming a fully operational carrier with fighter jets setting sail as a carrier group with recently mass produced frigates and destroyers by 2016. Obviously the sentiment surrounding the Beijing Olympics in 2008 has proven to be wrong. And Taiwan has responded, electing Tsai in 2016 and reelecting her in 2020."