May 11, 2020

Some Comments on Taiwan's Political and Strategic Environment

Anonymous on May 9, 2020 commented:

The US may very well use the claims by other countries as a means to push back on China in an unofficial way. I think that is a dynamic that the South East Asia countries in general are aware of and try so sort of learn towards a balancing between China and the US. If the US uses Taiwan's claim in that way as well, it still falls short of supporting Taiwan to the extent of enabling it to declare independence. Taiwan's defense capabilities rely much on the Foreign Military Sales Agreement with the US.

The number of Taiwanese workers in the PRC has decreased tremendously since 2016. Currently at around 400,000. (see https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3839550 )

The rise to 1,000,000 coincided with Taiwanese President Ma Jing-geou who had a pro-China policy approach. He was President from 2008 to 2016, winning a second term. But China in that period was still a question mark in the geopolitical sense. Many other countries have been expanding trade with China at that time as well, including Australia.

Even though in 2008, the Charter 08 by Chinese intellectuals was shot down by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and democracy advocate Liu Xiaobo was arrested, Beijing had the 2008 Olympics. The general mood internationally was "if China develops a middle class, they will naturally evolve into greater openness and democracy". So its kind of hard to hold Taiwan to account in increasing workers in the PRC in these years.

The US and others let the PRC onto the World Trade Organisation (WTO) around in 2001. So the gates of open market/economy forces were opened. And the PRC will naturally try to entice Taiwan into unification sentiments under CCP rule.

Additionally, even US military equipment includes parts from Taiwan, if I recall correctly, Taiwanese bits are in the Patriot 3 missile system. Some computer chips of Chinese origin are used in other US military equipment. It is a questionable knotty mess. But instead of having that be used as a point to discredit efforts within Taiwan to keep unofficial independence and to discredit Taiwan's efforts to achieve official nation status, it should be a point used to reduce the interlocking of parts and businesses in the PRC-Taiwan-US supply lines.

But later, PRC activities around the Senkaku islands and Sarborough Shoal around 2012 and then later with the Hong Kong umbrella movement in 2014, and the beginning of the massive island making in the Spratly island group in 2014/2015, Liu Xiaobo remaining in prison up until his death in July 2017, the PRC buying an old aircraft carrier from the Ukraine [also see] on the basis of "turning it into a floating casino" in 1998 instead becoming a fully operational carrier with fighter jets setting sail as a carrier group with recently mass produced frigates and destroyers by 2016. Obviously the sentiment surrounding the Beijing Olympics in 2008 has proven to be wrong. And Taiwan has responded, electing Tsai in 2016 and reelecting her in 2020."

9 comments:

  1. Trump administration will restore diplomatic relation with Tiwan as one of sanctions against coronavirus disaster which China provided to USA. USA will transfer some submarine technologies to Taiwan and might admit independence of Taiwan.


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  2. Hi Anonymous

    I don't think Coronavirus will fundamentally change US policies on China and Taiwan.

    If Trump wins the November 2020 Presidential Election he might think he has a mandate for big changes.

    In the end China is vastly more valuable to the US as a trade partner.

    Also I don't think the US would launch a nuclear war in defence of Taiwan (ie 70% chance US wouldn't launch). Maybe 30% chance US launches - with Trump risking destruction of the Earth...

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  3. Trump claimed corona attack by China was worse than Pearl Harvor and 911 attacks which resulted in harsh revenge by USA. If Trump hesitate severe action on China, he will find difficulty in winning presidential election. Measures of economic sanctions such as US-China trade restruction and confiscation of China pocessing US governmet bond are diffucult, because of counter damages against US (reduction of trade profit from China, lossing position of USD as a base currency). Recently, US is rapidly recovering various relations with Taiwan. Geopolytical situation in Fareast is in a great change.

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  4. Nuclear war is very unlikely. It’s a no win situation, especially between the major powers. The world may be able to recover from a N Korea incident, but between the majors - it’s Game over. The majors are well aware of this. It’s the crazies that are likely to go nuclear.

    This does not however mean the end of regular warfare. Regular warfare means if you win, you may get something. Nuclear war means even if you win, you loose. China is the greatest risk of nuclear war amongst the majors. Putin is many things, crazy he is not. I would be very surprised if Russia starts a nuclear war. The problem with the likes of the CCP is that it is more like a religion & they are the hardest to control, even by those that think they do.

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  5. Hi Anonymous [at May 15, 2020 at 2:01 PM]

    Yes. As in all things Trump needs scapegoats for his total unfitness to be President.

    In this case Trump's denial until April that Coronavirus was a serious problem in America has been blamed on China.

    Certainly the world would breathe a sigh of relief if Trump loses the November Election.

    It is an interesting issue if Trump's "diplomacy" as expressed by Secretary of State Pompeo (who when CIA Director advocated a "more aggressive" CIA https://intelnews.org/2017/10/05/01-2190/ )
    has made China more combative or was Xi's China already combative?

    Cheers

    Pete

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  6. Hi Anonymous [at May 16, 2020 at 10:01 PM]

    I agree China would not value a defeated Taiwan that was a radioactive wasteland for decades -if not longer - with Beijing, Shanghai etc. also likely "nuked".

    I'd say its likely China can beat Taiwan and block US intervention through conventional warfare.

    People have often "wargamed" a Chinese attack on Taiwan as needing D-Day style landings but I think no such landing on Taiwan would be necessary. The literature is long that China can use 1,000+ higly accurate ballistic and cruise missiles to hit all of Taiwan's fixed and mobile military, communications and industrial infrastructure. Here's a recent nasty new missile platform https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htart/articles/20200518.aspx

    Also likely that Taiwan "enjoys" several Chinese concentric undersea sensor circles linked to smart mobile mines/UUVs that can stop the Taiwanese navy (icluding its future subs) sortying out and stop USN subs and surface fleet getting close to protect Taiwan. Needless to say blockage of merchant shipping and aircraft getting in and out of Taiwan would be long worked out.

    Taiwan's highly populated cities with high need for imported food, energy, mineral and spare-parts supply chains whould feel compelled to surrender in weeks/months.

    Australia is equally vulnerable eg. Australia does not have the oil refinery capacity or storage facilities to last longer than 2 weeks!

    Pete

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  7. At the end of the day, China would be able to naval-air blockade Taiwan into submission; no landings would be needed. But at what cost ? The US,JP and EU would impose severe sanctions for a decade, and the cost might well outweigh the benefits.

    The dangerous part of whats happening today is that China is already suffering (thru Trump sanctions and Covid19 export losses) quite a bit of economic damage; unemployment is already quite high; foreign companies are leaving in droves. If they did begin blockade, how much worse could it get than it already is ? Regards...

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  8. Hi Pete
    Taiwan President Tsai formaly refused "one country, two systems" (ALJAZEERA). USA will protect Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.(TSMC) , the biggest 5 G chip (next generation key technology ) maker in the world because of unstable future of SAMSUNG, the second biggest maker.
    Regards

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  9. Hi Unknown [at May 20, 2020 at 12:03 AM] and Anonymous [at May 20, 2020 at 11:18 PM]

    Looks like China has a better chance with "one country, two systems" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_country,_two_systems#Taiwan .

    BUT with the rider that the trends over the next TEN to TWENTY years may continue to be a politically obtuse and militarily less dominant US. And ever closer China-Taiwan trade ties. All this steadily making an understanding with China all the more attractive.

    As with Russia manipulating the US electoral system China could manipulate Taiwan's electoral system to give 1 or more "soft on Beijing" candidates cyber-marketing and financial help. A recent pro-unification example being https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ma_Ying-jeou President of Taiwan 2008 to 2016.

    Regards

    Pete

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