In response to GhalibKabir's views of April 13, 2020.
1. Its interesting to compare economic growth prospects in 2020 of China versus countries it is in strategic competition with.
Looking at the graph "OECD downgrades growth forecasts" above, from a BBC News, April 3, 2020 article:
- China's growth will be about 4.8%
- Average for World 2.3%
- US 1.8%
- Japan 0.3%
- India?
These OECD predictions, optimistic for the Chinese economy, have since been contradicted by the Chinese government which reports the Chinese GDP contracted by 6.3% in the first quarter 2020.
PETE COMMENT
So even though COVID-19 started in China - by this OECD estimate China will come out less impacted than countries China competes with in strategic terms.
Put another way, China's ability to maintain or increase its defense budget for 2020-2021 will be less effected than its strategic competitors' abilities.
Also as a heavy importer of NOW cheaper oil China benefits compared to oil/gas exporting US and Russia (whose oil/gas revenues have dropped).
2. Pakistan may spend excessive amounts on weapons as it has always been a military dominated country and it is in constant military confrontation with a more powerful neighbour (India). Also the US and China give Pakistan much tied military aid.
3. On "semitic religions" (ie. those that follow one God) I think most outside of India and Pakistan aren't that religious. The US and Russia are both notionally Christian, but that doesn't inhibit their nationalistic mutual antagonism.
Also, I think, India's major enemy, China, is not that religious, more an odd conglomeration of capitalism, communism and Confucianism.
Pete
1. Its interesting to compare economic growth prospects in 2020 of China versus countries it is in strategic competition with.
Looking at the graph "OECD downgrades growth forecasts" above, from a BBC News, April 3, 2020 article:
- China's growth will be about 4.8%
- Average for World 2.3%
- US 1.8%
- Japan 0.3%
- India?
These OECD predictions, optimistic for the Chinese economy, have since been contradicted by the Chinese government which reports the Chinese GDP contracted by 6.3% in the first quarter 2020.
PETE COMMENT
So even though COVID-19 started in China - by this OECD estimate China will come out less impacted than countries China competes with in strategic terms.
Put another way, China's ability to maintain or increase its defense budget for 2020-2021 will be less effected than its strategic competitors' abilities.
Also as a heavy importer of NOW cheaper oil China benefits compared to oil/gas exporting US and Russia (whose oil/gas revenues have dropped).
2. Pakistan may spend excessive amounts on weapons as it has always been a military dominated country and it is in constant military confrontation with a more powerful neighbour (India). Also the US and China give Pakistan much tied military aid.
3. On "semitic religions" (ie. those that follow one God) I think most outside of India and Pakistan aren't that religious. The US and Russia are both notionally Christian, but that doesn't inhibit their nationalistic mutual antagonism.
Also, I think, India's major enemy, China, is not that religious, more an odd conglomeration of capitalism, communism and Confucianism.
Pete
6 comments:
Hi Pete,
It seems that Poland may buy the two Södermanland class submarines from Sweden as it indicated in the Spring Budget and as it will take out the Södermanland sub from the War Organization prematurely the Government needs the Parlaments okay for it.
https://twitter.com/GripenNews/status/1250370578617425921
/Kjell
Thanks /Kjell
It seems a little odd that Sweden's "War Organization" (does that mean Defense Ministry or Defense Materiel Administration, FMV?) is generating publicity before the Swedish Parliament has agreed to the Södermanland lease or sale.
Is this intended to put a little pressure on Polish agencies to accept a future Södermanland offer?
Regards
Pete
According to the Swedish newspaper Svenska Dagbladet, Poland has asked for an offer regarding HSwMS Södermanland and HSwMS Östergötaland.
The Swedish government has asked the parliament to approve a deal with Poland.
There are two options, either the Swedish government sells the submarines directly to Poland and the other option is that SAAB Kockums buys the subs from the state and then are responsible for the deal.
https://www.svd.se/regeringen-vill-salja-aldre-ubatar-till-polen
/C
Thanks /C
Sweden selling second hand (but well maintained) submarines to Poland seems a better deal than Poland buying new build submarines from TKMS or Naval Group at much greater cost.
It seems Poland has shelved its initial requirement that its next submarines carry land attack missiles https://www.defensenews.com/land/2015/03/14/poland-eyes-cruise-missiles-for-subs/
Such missiles fired at the obvious "enemy" Russia would be a dangerous possibility given Russia's nuclear missile capability.
Regards
Pete
Hi Pete,
As stated before the offer to Poland from Sweden did include an interim offer of the Södermanland Class submarines so I assume that Poland has asked for the Södermanland Class submarines only.
As Sweden do have a minoritet Government they must ask the Parlament to change the war organization and it doesn't mean that they put any pressure on Poland to buy the subs it's only a preparation if there will be a buy from Poland.
As a comment about Norway and their buy of 212CD submarines they are delayed 3 years according to their presentation of the long term plan where the Government did choose a lower proposition of the 4 different levels suggested from the defence, which for instance wanted one extra submarine.
/Kjell
Hi /Kjell [at April 19, 2020 at 8:10 PM]
Thanks for the explanation on the 2 Södermanland Class.
The corporate instability surrounding TKMS https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thyssenkrupp-marinesystems-talks/thyssenkrupp-in-talks-with-local-rivals-about-possible-warship-unit-merger-idUSKBN21Z18I is another reason why Polish acquisition of the 2 Södermanland Class would be a safer economic decision than choosing new build TKMS submarines.
As well as Norway's delay of 3 years on submarines I've also noticed "There are still no plans to replace Norway’s frigate Helge Ingstad, which sank after colliding with a tanker in late 2018, and the Navy will need to just keep sailing with the vessels it currently has for several more years." https://www.newsinenglish.no/2020/04/17/long-term-defense-plan-disappointing/
Such Norwegian naval budget savings may be vindicated due to: "COVID-19 has been spreading rapidly across Norway with over 6,800 confirmed cases, claiming more than 150 lives as of April 15, 2020. The government has implemented a range of measures to mitigate the spread of coronavirus and to stabilize the economy." https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Policy-Responses-to-COVID-19#N
Regards
Pete
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