South Korea's future nuclear missile response to North Korea

As South Korea is contemplating nuclear weapons might Israel assist it by developing the solid-fuel rocket, super or hypersonic, Popeye Turbo "cruise" missile for ROK horizontal torpedo tube submarine use?

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With varying amounts of publicity South Korea-Republic of Korea (ROK) has been considering developing its own nuclear weapons capability since 1970. The main determinant appears to be ROK's confidence, or lack of confidence, that the US will continue to extend nuclear deterrence in ROK’s favour. An ROK capability may take one to three years to develop.

Events or trends driving current ROK thinking include:

-  North Korea’s (NK’s) continuing ballistic missile, SLBM and nuclear tests and threats to use 

   them against ROK

-  Since early 2016 Trump’s "abandon ROK" and "ROK develop its own nuclear capability"

    statements.

-  Since October 2016 the possibility North Korea will exploit instability caused by the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye. ROK is now ruled by temporary President Hwang Kyo-ahn.
-  Will Hwang Kyo-ahn have different attitudes to nuclear options? 

Regarding Trump, playing on the minds of ROK’s leaders is the 1949 removal of US protection which quickly led to the NK invasion of 1949. If Trump becomes aware of history he may need to be told that the US very quickly and expensively needed to return to the Korean Peninsula in 1949 to defend ROK and indirectly Japan against NK as well as Chinese (and less acknowledged) Soviet Russian aggression.

Due to the grim strategic threats against ROK it is following hedging policies to reduce the chance of North Korean attack. Policies include:

-  Maintain a relatively high defence budget of 2.6% GDP - partly to signal ROK resolve to the US.

-  Deploying conventional military equipment (including land and sea based ABM/BMD systems).

   But note BMD systems are less effective against future NK SLBMs because the launch points and

   trajectories of SLBMs or even cruise missiles (SLCMs) are less known in a BMD database.

- plans to develop and deploy nuclear weapons and much later nuclear propulsion.

This activity or potential is partly aimed at ensuring US conventional and nuclear extended deterrence against North Korea remains.

If ROK saw nuclear propelled submarines as a way of destroying NK or Chinese SSBNs ROK would need to spend a great amount of money over a long period.

Judging by Indian and French nuclear submarine programs nuclear propulsion may take, 10 to 15, years to develop. Also see Note 3 in a Wikipedia article.

FRENCH ASSISTANCE?

If an ROK project is for an SSBN then extra years may be required to develop a vertical launch ballistic missile system. France, with experience in 2,000 to 5,000 tonne nuclear submarines may be the most likely source of reactor and submarine hull assistance.

Also France may be able to assist ROK in upgrading the Hyunmoo ballistic missile to SLBM status. This is noting France assisted Israel in developing the Jericho series of (very obviously) nuclear tipped missiles. 

ISRAELI AND GERMAN TKMS ASSISTANCE?

Another option is for Israel to assist ROK by developing the solid-fuel rocket propelled, supersonic or hypersonic, Popeye Turbo "cruise" missile for ROK's horizontal torpedo tube submarine use? 

Germany's TKMS, designed the Type 209s and 214 conventional subs that ROK has been assembling. TKMS may then be a likely supplier of ROKs "indigenous" 3,000+ tonne KSS-III design. This design may be very similar to a stretched Dolphin 2 or future Dolphin 3 design. Dolphin submarines have the advantage of using 4 650mm torpedo tubes that are specifically designed for the above mentioned Popeye Turbo missiles.

Pete