Australian Prime Minister Turnbull meets German
Chancellor Merkel. From left, Australian Finance Minister Senator Mathias
Cormann, German State Minister (in Foreign Office) Maria Boehmer, Prime
Minister Turnbull, German Chancellor Merkel, Lucy Turnbull and German
politician Volkmar Klein (Photo courtesy AFRweekend)
Turnbull and Merkel share a joke during Turnbull's mid Nobember 2015 visit to Berlin.
(Photo courtesy News(dot)com(dot)au)
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Cutaway of a TKMS-HDW Type 216. The 216 is likely the submarine Germany is offering in the Australian future submarine CEP. (Diagram courtesy Submarine Dossier )
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Readers may
recall Submarine Matter’s article Japan's
Submarine Sales Advantage, 2 + 2 Talks With Australia of November 1, 2015
where I wrote:
“Japan and Australia sharing the same region gives Japan
an important advantage over the French and German competition for the Future
Australian submarine sale. The annual
"2 + 2" talks between Japan and Australia cement the ongoing defence
relationship”
Now a pivotal article
from The
Australian reveals that when Australia’s Prime Minister Turnbull met
Chancellor Merkel, in Berlin last week, Australia also negotiated Defence
Minister and Foreign Minister “2 + 2” talks with Germany.
This development is of
major significance if Australia does not negotiate equivalent 2 + 2 talks with France
during the life of the Australian future submarine Competitive Evaluation
Process (CEP). The CEP may extend into late 2016 until a winner is picked or at
least one contender is eliminated. As Australia now has 2 + 2 arrangements with
Japan and now with Germany this may (or may not) be an indicator that France may
be eliminated.
The following
are some excerpts of an article (some parts I’ve bolded for emphasis) that political correspondent David Crowe for THE AUSTRALIAN, November 14, 2015,
reported http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/foreign-affairs/malcolm-turnbull-to-boost-ties-with-germany/story-fn59nm2j-1227608547216?sv=6e64b912efb1461e9d64f63d4d525c6a
“Malcolm Turnbull to boost ties with Germany”
“Australia will
create a new defence and foreign affairs compact with Germany under a deal
between Malcolm Turnbull and his counterpart, Angela Merkel, that dramatically
broadens a $17 billion economic relationship, with an eye to huge export
growth as well.
In the Prime
Minister’s first major foreign policy initiative, the two countries will set up
a new strategic partnership including annual summits of defence and foreign
ministers and a joint effort to combat terrorism.
…The agreement
spans defence, trade and economic policies to act upon a high-level report from
an advisory group including [Australian] Finance Minister Mathias Cormann [originally from Belgium and speaks German fluently] and more than a dozen prominent
individuals from both countries.
…A key finding
of the report, obtained by The Weekend Australian, is that the
two nations should start a “2 plus 2” strategic dialogue between defence and
foreign ministers along the lines already in place with Britain.
This is being
put in place and is the first agreement of its kind between Australia and any nation
in continental Europe.
…Government figures said the breakthrough
agreement reflected an elevation in the Germany relationship, recognising it
has been the “odd one out” when Australia had “2 plus 2” co-operation with the
US, Japan and China, as well as Britain.
…The stronger
defence ties are a boost for Germany in its bid to help build the next fleet of
Australian submarines, a delicate political issue in South Australia with
competition from Japan and France to do the work..."
Read the WHOLE
ARTICLE in The Australian
--------------------------------------------------
Wording in DFAT Briefs Significant?
Along the lines of a "2 + 2" - within the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) Brief on relations with Germany "the establishment of a high-level strategic
dialogue involving foreign and defence ministers" is mentioned under
"Significant recent developments".
10 comments:
Dear Pete,
such a military deal is linked to a variety of other deals. So the Australian government may also looks at other important issues. Germany has a 50 % higher GDP than France and so more trade options. Also is DCNS a different partner compared to Thyssen-Krupp of which TKMS is only a small part.
To open new markets a German submarine would be the best option.
Regards,
MHalblaub
Hi Pete & MHalblaub
Japan will respect decision of Australia for better or worse. Australia requested Japan to transfer submarine technology. Japan initially hesitated to transfer, but decided to behave as a best friend of Australia. Now situation has changed. Australia can open new market with Germany, but, please do not use secret information on Japanese submarine which Australia got in CEP. I hope Australia behave as a gentleman.
Regards
S
Hi MHalblaub
It is true that the defence relationships, including talks, will have an arms sales aspect. I never realised the German GDP was 50% higher than France's. East-West German unification must have major population-GDP significance.
Regards
Pete
Hi S
Unfortunately for the three CEP contenders they will probably have to wait a long time into 2016 before a winner is chosen. Australia would, of course, be under strict non-disclosure rules governing contender's information for the CEP.
Japan, like DCNS and TKMS, can reduce the risk of Australia spreading their information but not giving the most sensitive information to Australia in the first place (eg. Australia may not need to know eveything about NS110 or the latest Snorkel advances).
One measure relevant to a countries honesty in keeping its word is compartive corruption perceptions indexes. See
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_Perceptions_Index Australia ranks as very non-corrupt - that is honest.
Regards
Pete
Germany GDP is only 32-35% larger than France based on 2014 numbers. Even the UK GDP has surpassed France in 2014
Hi Pete
If Australia is considering export of submarine technology, she should inform Japan about this as soon as possible. Not only CEP but also post-CEP is very important. Australia should think post-CEP situation including maintenance of relation with Japan.
Regards
S
Germany 2013 GDP $3.7 billions, France $2.8 billions (google) that's not 50% higher?
Which trade options?
If you choose a submarine based on "trade options" so maybe it's better for Australia to chose a chinese submarine?
With INS Kalvari sea trials last month, DCNS shows it capacity to build submarines outside France.
Regards
HD
Hi Anonymous [at Nov 19, 4:29AM]
I'll leave it to you guys to debate the mathematics.
For this blog the quality of a countries large SSKs and terms of a deal are most important.
Regards
Pete
Hi S [at Nov 19, 5:18AM]
I've heard nothing about an AUSTRALIAN INTENTION to export or re-export submarine technology.
It seems just sales sweeteners from TKMS and DCNS that if Australia buys their subs these companies will set up regional maintenance hubs (maybe including spare parts) in Adelaide.
Naturally Japan has not suggested it because Australia is the only possible Japanese sub customer. So all these basically impracticle sales sweetener promises apply to DCNS and TKMS not Japan.
I think it was in the Adelaide Advertiser, around Nov 17, 2015 where:
"The head of the Royal Australian Future Submarine program, Rear Admiral Greg Sammut, said the priority was to build submarines for the Australian fleet, not for export.
“Export is not a requirement of the competitive evaluation process... it’s about a regionally superior submarine with sovereign capability.”"
Regards
Pete
Hi HD [at Nov 19, 6:59AM]
Thanks for "Germany 2013 GDP $3.7 billions, France $2.8 billions (google) that's not 50% higher?
Which trade options?"
I think this is US$3.7 TRILLION etc see United Nations list at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)#Lists
Australia, of course, will buy no weapons from China or Russia for may reasons including lower quality and Aus's alliance with the US.
Yes DCNS and TKMS have much useful experience organising foreign builds.
I imagine for India's submarine acquisition Project-75(I) TKMS and DCNS have also offered the "maintenance hub" status as a sweetener to India as well?
Regards
Pete
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