Not connected with the World Bank paper - presumably the fate of Manhattan of a 5+ metre sea level rise (SLR).
on energy and the environment http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTRESEARCH/EXTPROGRAMS/EXTEAER/0,,menuPK:5991692~pagePK:64168176~piPK:64168140~theSitePK:5991650,00.html
encompassing climate change
http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTRESEARCH/EXTPROGRAMS/EXTEAER/0,,contentMDK:22200707~pagePK:64168182~piPK:64168060~theSitePK:5991650,00.html
As an example of what the World Bank researches - one easily visualized climate change risk and process is sea level rise. The World Bank has produced a 2007
Policy Research Working Paper
"The impact of sea level rise on developing countries : a
comparative analysis" http://econ.worldbank.org/external/default/main?ImgPagePK=64202988&entityID=000016406_20070209161430&pagePK=64165259&theSitePK=469382&piPK=585673
The Summary reads:
"Sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change is a serious global threat. The scientific evidence is now overwhelming. Continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions and associated global warming could well promote SLR of 1m-3m in this century, and unexpectedly rapid breakup of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets might produce a 5m SLR. In this paper, the authors have assessed the consequences of continued SLR for 84 developing countries. Geographic Information System (GIS) software has been used to overlay the best available, spatially-disaggregated global data on critical impact elements (land, population, agriculture, urban extent, wetlands, and GDP) with the inundation zones projected for 1-5m SLR. The results reveal that hundreds of millions of people in the developing world are likely to be displaced by SLR within this century, and accompanying economic and ecological damage will be severe for many. At the country level, results are extremely skewed, with severe impacts limited to a relatively small number of countries. For these countries (such as Vietnam, A. R. of Egypt, and The Bahamas), however, the consequences of SLR are potentially catastrophic. For many others, including some of the largest (such as China), the absolute magnitudes of potential impacts are very large. At the other extreme, many developing countries experience limited impacts. Among regions, East Asia and the Middle East and North Africa exhibit the greatest relative impacts. To date, there is little evidence that the international community has seriously considered the implications of SLR for population location and infrastructure planning in developing countries. The authors hope that the information provided in this paper will encourage immediate planning for adaptation.
The Paper concludes:
"Even if greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were stabilized in the near future, thermal expansion and deglaciation would continue to raise the sea level for many decades.
Continued growth of
GHG emissions and associated global warming could well promote SLR [sea level
rise] of 1m-3m in this century, and unexpectedly rapid breakup of the Greenland
and West Antarctic ice sheets might
produce a 5m SLR. In this paper, we have assessed the consequences of continued SLR for 84
developing countries.
Our results are extremely
skewed, with severe impacts limited to a relatively small number of countries. For
these countries (e.g., Vietnam, A.R. of Egypt, The Bahamas), however, the consequences
of SLR are potentially catastrophic. [bolded by Pete for emphasis] For many others, including some of the largest (e.g., China), the absolute
magnitudes of potential impacts are very large. At the other extreme, many
developing countries experience limited impacts.
Among regions, East
Asia and Middle East/North Africa exhibit the greatest relative impacts. In
this conclusion, we would like to highlight two important implications of our
findings. First, the overall magnitudes for the developing world are sobering:
Within this century, hundreds of
millions of people are likely to be displaced by SLR; accompanying economic and ecological damage will be severe
for many. The world has not previously faced
a crisis on this scale, and planning for adaptation should begin immediately. Second,
international resource allocation strategies should recognize the skewed impact
distribution that we have documented in this paper. Some countries will be
little-affected by SLR, while others
will be so heavily impacted that their national integrity may be threatened.
Given the scarcity of available resources, it would seem sensible to allocate aid according to degree of threat.
Under the provisions
of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), some
work has begun on National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs). These are intended to facilitate the
identification of priority activities, including adaptation to SLR, for the least-developed
countries. To date however, only 8 countries have developed comprehensive NAPAs:
Bangladesh, Bhutan, Comoros, Djibouti, Malawi,
Mauritania, Niger and Samoa. Of these, five are coastal states with potential SLR problems. For comparison, our summary
above reveals 10 poor countries that will be very severely impacted by SLR.
With the exceptions of Bangladesh and Mauritania, none are included in the NAPA
list above: Benin, Guyana, Suriname, A.R. of Egypt, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau,
Mauritania, Vietnam, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Many other developing countries
will also experience significant impacts.
We should reiterate
that these results are not speculative: The current atmospheric concentration of
GHG's is sufficient to drive global warming well into the next century, and
much higher concentrations will undoubtedly be reached before any global agreement can be implemented. For
precautionary planning purposes, SLR in the range of 1m - 3m should therefore be regarded as realistic.
To date, however, there is little evidence that the international community has
seriously considered the implications for population location and infrastructure
planning in many developing countries. We hope that the information provided in this paper
will encourage more rapid action on this front."
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