There has been an unusual Iran-Pakistan exchange of fire within the last 24 hours https://quwa.org/2024/01/17/iranian-missiles-strike-pakistani-soil/ .
I wonder if Saudi Arabia (a strategic ally of Pak) and the US (close but complex relations with Pak) have encouraged Pak to put pressure on Iran?
This would divert some Iranian
attention and forces away from Iran's multifaceted proxy conflict with Israel.
Regular contributor Shawn Chung, on January 15, 2024, made some interesting comments on the following naval matters:
Columbia X-tail
Note
this is also a feature that SSNX concept models have displayed:
http://www.hisutton.com/US-Navy-SSNX-2023.html
Theory-crafting: Ukraine midget submarines and UUVs
H. I. Sutton has also highlighted that Italian midget submarine maker, Drass, has recently displayed UUV concepts, and is building a DG-160 midget submarine in Romania, for an 'unknown country'. My own take on this is that a midget submarine, with minimal crew and built solely for electric batteries (and/or a Stirling engine) could make the 900 nautical mile round trip to Russia's Black Sea Fleet HQ Novorossiysk Naval Base fully submerged, to ferry Ukraine USVs to the vicinity of Novorossiysk undetected.
Once deployed, these drones could then be controlled via satellite, allowing the midget sub to withdraw.
We
assume the Russians have the Black Sea 'wired for sound' - but as one of only
two submarine powers (the other being Turkey) in that Sea, Russia could have atrophied Soviet-era
detection systems (much like Russia's air defenses), this could explain how
Ukraine has managed to slip drones around the Southern tip of Crimea.
Red Sea
I reckon we could hear of a UUV attack, though I don't expect the Houthis to have something fast enough to catch up with a merchant ship. The US and allies are also learning that the easiest way to stop drone attacks is to bomb Houthi control centers. This is something Ukraine is also using against Russia.
Singapore Navy News
I was quite surprised when Singapore accepted a bid by Fassmer
for Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPVs), which will be delivered from 2028.
While info is scant, we know that they will be based on the Fassmer 80
OPV, which has the same length and displacement as the Independence-class Littoral Mission Vessels (LMVs) that ST Marine in Singapore built in 2020.
So I was wondering - why not just order OPVs from ST Marine? And I figure it's due to ST Marine's order book - even if they were 'in the bid' for the OPVs, they are pretty busy with projects right now.
Multi-Role Combat Vessels (MRCV)/Joint Multi-Mission Ships (JMMS) - Progress on the MRCV project was made at IMDEX Singapore last year, with ST Marine as the constructor, with the first vessel to be delivered by 2028. The JMMS project has yet to kick-off, but the Endurance-class LSTs will turn 30 in 2030, so their replacements should be programmed for commission by around 2035.
Formidable-class - Formidable-class frigates will enter mid-life upgrade (MLU), with the first to be completed by 2028. The upgrades will include replacing Harpoon SSMs with Blue Spear, and perhaps Seafire AESA radar, which Thales says is scalable - so the Formidables may operate a single, rotating unit like Herakles, while the MRCVs get the four fixed arrays.
Invincible class submarine
There has been no follow-up news on the new Invincible-class submarines - three boats are in Kiel Germany - one is still in production, one is pier-side for fitting out, and the first-in-class, RSS Invincible, is used for crew training. The second boat of the class, the RSS Impeccable, arrived in Singapore in July 2023, but did not make an appearance during Singapore's 2023 National Day celebrations, nor the Singapore Navy's public event at Vivocity, a harbourside mall.
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The Solomon Islands is a small, unstable, highly corrupt, Pacific islands
nation which for many decades has been heavily reliant on aid and security assistance from its
large southern neighbour, Australia, as well as from New Zealand.
In November 2021, there was mass rioting and unrest in the Solomons' capital Honiara. [97] Chinese shops in particular were targeted. The Solomons requested and received law and order assistance from Australia.[98]
But encouraged by bribes to top island politicians, the Solomons, in March 2022, signed an MoU on policing cooperation with China and later signed a security pact with
China. The agreement with China might allow an ongoing Chinese military and
naval presence in the Solomons.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Papua New Guinea (PNG) is a large, unstable, highly corrupt, Pacific islands nation which for many decades has been heavily reliant on aid and security assistance from its large southern neighbour, Australia.
On Wednesday 10 January 2024 mass rioting and unrest in PNG's capital Port Moresby, later spread to PNG's second largest city, Lae and other cities. The unrest began following protests by security officers due to a perceived sudden reduction in their salaries. At least 22 people were killed.[1] China formally filed a complaint to the PNG government after several of its nationals were injured. Several Chinese-owned businesses were targeted in the riots.
PNG is rich in minerals and energy that China needs. Like many countries PNG is a recipient of Chinese infrastructure investment under China's Belt and Road Initiative including the redevelopment of the port and airport for Lae.[14]. PNG is
seeking investment from Chinese banks for a gas project as Australian banks don't appear to be sufficiently interested.
PNG has enjoyed since 2018 a comprehensive strategic partnership with China.
/Kjell made an interesting January 11, 2024 comment. I respond:
Thanks for drawing https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/first-look-at-columbia-missile-submarines-x-shaped-stern to my attention.
Its surprising the US didn't use X-form rudders for the Virginia
SSNs - nor did the UK's Astutes. I note French Barracuda/Suffren SSNs use X-form.
GDEB and HII delays (described in the WarZone article) in the highest priority Columbia SSBN program might well result in worsening delays to the comparatively lower priority GDEB and HII Virginia construction schedule. The consequent Virginia scarcity in the USN might mean fewer or no Virginias are available for Australia in the 2030s.
Quite interesting is Navy Large Unmanned Surface and Undersea Vehicles: Background and Issues for Congress, Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report R45757, Updated December 20, 2023, written by Ronald O'Rourke, Specialist in Naval Affairs at https://sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/R45757.pdf
Amongst other Unmanned Vehicle issues for Congress it contains
familiar descriptions of Boeing’s winning Orca XLUUV technology developed from Boeing's
Echo Voyager. A major mission envisaged for Orca appears on page 16 “to, among other
things, covertly deploy the [General Dynamics Hammerhead Smart Naval Mine] a planned mine that would be tethered to the seabed and armed with an
antisubmarine torpedo [eg. the US Mark 54 LWT], broadly similar to the Navy’s Cold
War-era CAPTOR (encapsulated torpedo) mine.”
In August 2022 I wrote about use of the Hammerhead in the context of defending Taiwan against China.
LIKELY LOCKHEED BLACK PROJECT(s)
CRS R45757 page 16 also makes the passing comment “(The other [Orca] bidder was a team led by Lockheed Martin.)”. So Lockheed Martin (LM) notionally lost the Orca competition. But I haven’t heard that LM lamented its loss.
As LM is the world’s largest and most connected arms company I suspect it is still in the XLUUV business and that its entry for Orca has been further developed into at least 3 variants:
1. As a highly stealthy intelligence gathering XLUUV particularly
against Russian and Chinese “peer” competitors. Promoting stealth may mean it is smaller and more torpedo like than Boeing's "subway car" sized and shaped Orca. LM's intel gathering version may a have anechoic coating and very quiet propulsion using single or combined propulsion technologies including (fuel cell AIP, RTG, tiny nuclear PWR and/or electric propulsion). It might be small enough to be launched from a multipurpose Virginia Payload Tube (VPT) and perhaps 4 can be launched from USS Jimmy Carter's Multi-Mission Platform.
I recall seeing (years ago on the web) a green-brown-black camouflaged version of the LM artwork above. But for some reason the camouflaged artwork appears to have been taken down.
and/or
2. Perhaps as a fast moving XLUUV carrying a high explosive or “special” warhead against
peer competitor targets. Perhaps as a Mutually Assured Destruction deterrent to
Russia’s NATO reporting name “KANYON” (aka. Poseidon or Status-6 Oceanic Multipurpose
System”. KANYON is believed to be a conventional or nuclear warhead armed nuclear-powered XLUUV.
and/or
3. As a UUV placed in front of a Russian KANYON in order to destroy that Russian weapon. A US/NATO network of numerous, distributed, AI sensors might expedite pre-positioning. This American UUV might be small enough to be air-dropped, rather than needing to chase a KANYON at 100 odd knots.