The Pentagon’s 2022 China Military Power Report was released today, Nov 29, 2022 (Nov 30 Australian time).
It carries the full name "Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of
China". This
Congressionally-mandated report serves as an authoritative assessment of the US DoD's pacing challenge and charts the current course of the
PRC's military and security strategy.
This follows the DoD’s release of its unclassified National Defense Strategy in October 2022, which "identified the PRC as the most consequential and systemic challenge to U.S. national security and a free and open international system."
The full 196 page .PDF "2022 China Military Power Report" is HERE.
Major mentions of submarines in it include:
Page XIII - "As the top
ship-producing nation in the world by tonnage, the PRC is increasing its shipbuilding
capacity and capability for all naval classes: submarines, warships, and
auxiliary and amphibious ships. China also has developed underwater systems,
publicly revealing a long-range system in 2019 [More on that long range system(s) here and here].
Page 52 – “Submarines. The
PLAN has placed a high priority on modernizing its submarine force, but its
force structure continues to grow modestly as it works to mature its force, integrate
new technologies, and expand its shipyards.
The PLAN currently operates six nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBN), six nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN), and 44 diesel-powered/air-independent powered attack submarines (SS/SSP).
The PLAN will likely maintain between 65 and
70 submarines through the 2020s, replacing older units with more capable units
on a near one-to-one basis.
The PRC continues to increase
its inventory of conventional submarines capable of firing advanced anti-ship
cruise missiles (ASCM). Between the mid-1990s and mid-2000s, the PLAN purchased
12 Russian-built KILO class SS units, eight of which are capable of
launching ASCMs. China’s shipyards have delivered 13 SONG class SS units
(Type 039) and 17 YUAN class diesel-electric air-independent propulsion
attack submarine (SSP) (Type 039A/B). The PRC is expected to produce a total
of 25 or more YUAN class submarines by
Page 53 – “2025. In
late 2021, the PLAN retired the first two KILO class submarines purchased from Russia
in the 1990s. Over the past 15 years, the PLAN has constructed twelve
nuclear submarines – two SHANG I class SSNs (Type 093), four SHANG II class
SSNs (Type 093A), and six JIN class SSBNs (Type 094). Equipped with the
CSS-N-14 (JL-2) submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) (7,200KM),
the PLAN’s six operational JIN class SSBNs represent the PRC’s first
credible sea-based nuclear deterrent. By the mid-2020s, China will likely build
the SHANG class (Type 093B) guided-missile nuclear-powered attack submarine
(SSGN). This new SHANG class variant will enhance the PLAN’s anti-surface
warfare capability and could provide a clandestine land-attack option if
equipped with land-attack cruise missiles (LACM). The PLAN is also improving
its antisubmarine warfare (ASW) capabilities through the development of its
surface combatants and special mission aircraft, but it continues to lack a
robust deep-water ASW capability. By prioritizing the acquisition of ASW
capable surface combatants, acoustic surveillance ships, and fixed and rotary
wing ASW capable aircraft, the PLAN is significantly improving its ASW
capabilities. However, it will still require several years of training and
systems integration for the PLAN to develop a robust offensive deep water ASW
capability.
Page 54 - Eight of the PLAN’s 10 KILO class SSs are equipped with the Russian built SS-N-27b [Kalibr] ASCM (120NM, 220KM). The PRC’s SONG class SS, YUAN class SSP, and SHANG class SSN field the PLAN’s newest domestic submarine launched YJ-18 and its variants, which constitute an improvement over the SS-N-27b ASCM… As the PLAN continues to transition into a global multi-mission force, the addition of landattack capabilities to its modern array of anti-surface and anti-air capabilities is a logical next step.
In the coming years, the PLAN will probably field LACMs on its newer cruisers and destroyers and developmental SHANG class Type 093B SSGN. The PLAN could also retrofit its older surface combatants and submarines with land-attack capabilities as well. The addition of land-attack capabilities to the PLAN’s surface combatants and submarines would provide the PLA with flexible long-range strike options. This would allow the PRC to hold land targets at risk beyond the Indo-Pacific region.
Page 94 – “The PRC is conducting continuous at-sea deterrence patrols with its six JIN-class (Type 094) submarines (SSBNs), which are equipped to carry up to 12 JL-2 or JL-3 SLBMs.”
Page 96 – “Sea-based
Platforms. The PRC likely began near-continuous at-sea deterrence patrols with its
six operational JIN class SSBNs, which are equipped to carry up to 12 CSS-N-14
(JL-2) or CSS-NX-20 (JL-3) SLBMs.
The PRC’s next-generation Type 096 SSBN is probably intended to field MIRVed SLBMs judging from past developmental trends. The 096 SSBNs will likely begin construction in the early-2020s. Based on the 30-plus-year service life of the PRC’s first generation SSNs, the PRC will operate its [Type 094] JIN and Type 096 SSBN fleets concurrently.
The current range limitations
of the JL-2 will require the JIN to operate in areas north and east of Hawaii
if the PRC seeks to target the east coast of the United States. The fielding of
newer, more capable, and longer ranged SLBMs such as the JL-3 gives the PLAN the
ability to target the continental United States from littoral waters allowing
the PLAN to consider bastion operations to enhance the survivability of its
sea-based deterrent. The South China Sea and Bohai Gulf are probably the PRC’s
preferred options for employing this concept.
Page 166 – see “Taiwan Strait Military Balance, Naval Forces” table, which includes submarines [heavily in China’s favour]
[As I can't convert .PDF to .html below is last year's table, courtesy Econbrowser. Until the 2022 Table is available in .html].
