Aus Assisting US Admirals Favoured France

Thanks to Anonymous, who, on Oct 20, 2022, advised that a key Washington Post article was carried by MSN on Oct 18, 2022 with the title Retired U.S. admirals advise Australia on deal for nuclear submarines, 

The Washington Post/MSN article was clearly gobsmacked that the retired US Admirals were unwilling to pass on personal details and the Australian and US Governments refused to pass on secrets about Australia's submarine programs. Whats more these retired US Admirals were receiving contract pay commensurate with the $multi-billion programs they advised on.

One must add China resents Australia being helped to build nuclear subs almost as much as France resents losing the $multi-billion conventional Attack class submarine program.

So I looked into the matter and discerned No smoking gun. Further, I discovered France's bid for the Australian submarine contract in 2016 would ultimately  have benefitted from the presence of a retired US Defence Secretary and the retired US Admirals advising the Australian Government.

Just digressing, its curious in the negative-spin-seeking MSN/Washington Post article advises:

“The country [Australia] has no nuclear power plants, save for a single hospital that operates a tiny reactor for research purposes.”

This serves as a corrective to Australian nuclear energy organisations under the impression that they have operated research and isotope reactors at Lucas Heights, Sydney, since the 1950s, with no "hospital" in sight. 

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Submarine Matters has records of senior Americans mentioned in the MSN/Washington Post article who have assisted Australia's submarine program(s). These include: 

- former Secretary of the US Navy, Donald C. Winter in June 2015,  September 2015 and October 2015. 

and

- retired Rear Admiral Stephen Johnson October 2015

The Mother load is here:

It is an April 2016 Submarine Matters article that carries the Joint Media Release demonstrating Winter and retired US Admirals were key parts of the process that selected France's DCNS/Naval Group in April 2016.

Relevant parts of Joint Media Release as follows:   

“This rigorous and independent process was led by Head of the Future Submarine Program, Rear Admiral Greg Sammut AM CSC, and General Manager Submarines, Rear Admiral Stephen Johnson USN (retired), who was previously in charge of the program to replace the Ohio Class ballistic missile submarines

The process was overseen by an independent Expert Advisory Panel, chaired by former Secretary of the United States Navy, Professor Donald Winter. It was peer reviewed by Vice Admiral Paul Sullivan USN (retired) and Rear Admiral Thomas Eccles USN (retired).”

Retired US Admirals Contracted to Australia: AUKUS Subs

The good folks at China Daily, Oct 19, 2022, carry information originally from 

the Washington Post [a paysite blocked to Pete] dated Oct 19, that: 

"Former US admirals and senior US Navy leaders are working as paid, confidential advisers to the Australian government to help acquire top-secret nuclear submarine technology from the US and the UK, according to a Post investigation. They have received consulting deals from the [Australian] government worth more than $10 million combined.

Some retired US admirals have worked for the Australian government as paid advisers while simultaneously consulting for the US Navy. One retired US admiral was hired by the government of Australia to serve as its deputy secretary of defense and to oversee its submarine program, the Post reported."

"...Foreign governments pay salary and benefit packages reaching six, and sometimes seven, figures for the retired military personnel. Retired generals and admirals command the most money, but former enlisted personnel can also collect foreign pay on top of their US military pensions, the Post said.

Retired military personnel seeking foreign work must first obtain approval from their branch of the armed forces and the [US] State Department."

Pete Comment

This may mean that the retired US Admirals, as contractors to Australia's  

AUKUS Nuclear Powered Submarine Taskforce, might tend to offer accurate

advice that the US cannot offer Virginia-class subs to Australia.

It also begs the question whether there are retired British Admirals and

other senior Brits also contracted to Australia's Nuclear Powered Submarine

Taskforce.

France's two Subs & Exploration Offer to the Philippines

Riyaz ul Khaliq for Turkey’s Anadolu Agency (AA) October 18, 2022 reported  a seemingly odd offer “France wants to explore Filipino waters in exchange for  French submarines [presumably Scorpenes]: Report"

"Manila says deal not easy since it involves constitutional process."

Pete Comment

The Philippine economy has sufficiently grown enough to buy new naval vessels. Buying submarines is a medium term aim. 

Even in the unlikely circumstance that France would offer two Scorpenes to the Philippines completely “free”, other submarine necessities (training, spare parts, regular upgrades and repairs) run into $100s millions over time.

Also just two subs is usually too few in a world where a minimum of three vessels (as in the "Rule of Thirds") dominates most navies' thinking (Malaysia and Chile being exceptions). So the Philippine Navy, after taking on two “free” Scorpenes, may realise that paying for a third Scorpene (this time at full cost) might make more sense. Looking to the more distant future – if the Philippines became a customer for French Scorpenes it might remain a customer for a future generation of fully paid for French subs.    

French Government owned Naval Group has been interested in selling Scorpenes to the Philippines for several years. Naval Group’s desire to "give" has been heightened by Australia's cancellation of the French Attack-class submarine deal, the Netherland’s delay in choosing a Walrus-class replacement, India’s delay in the P-75(I) project, Poland's delay in the Kobben-class replacement, still early days in the process of a French Scorpene sale to Indonesia and Morocco may be interested in buying.

Mentioned in the article is that South Korea and Japan are also wishing to sell submarines to the Philippines. Germany, Sweden and now Spain might logically also wish to sell. Who knows whether Russia (the Kilo builder) is also eyeing the Philippine market, something more viable after Russia lives down the Ukraine invasion stigma. 

It is unclear whether France's alleged "exploration" offer is a media beatup. If true the offer to "explore waters" can be seen as a sweetener of alliance support wrapped up in submarines to the Philippines, This is given much of the water that the Philippines calls the "West Philippine Sea" is more commonly called the "South China Sea". Hence France would be exploring those waters in a degree of confrontation with China. France could claim to be exploring, or FONOPing, on the Philippines' behalf.

Putin's nuclear button: Mercifully more complex.

Warm, fuzzy reading, hoping the writer is right.

https://spectator.com.au/2022/10/the-misconception-about-putins-big-red-nuclear-button/

Cornered Putin losing Ukraine gamble. (Cartoon courtesy Spectator)
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US National Security Strategy 2022: Key Parts

Gessler, on October 13, 2022, drew my attention to:

The Biden White House's, National Security Strategy 2022, a 48 page PDF document, that naturally covers a lot. It is especially interesting regarding: 

TAIWAN page 24: "We have an abiding interest in maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, which is critical to regional and global security and prosperity and a matter of international concern and attention. We oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side, and do not support Taiwan independence. We remain committed to our one China policy, which is guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the Three Joint Communiques, and the Six Assurances. And we will uphold our commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act to [But the US] support Taiwan’s self-defense and to maintain our capacity to resist any resort to force or coercion against Taiwan." 

RUSSIA-UKRAINE page 26: "The United States will not allow Russia, or any power, to achieve its objectives through using, or threatening to use, nuclear weapons. America retains an interest in preserving strategic stability and developing a more expansive, transparent, and verifiable arms control infrastructure to succeed New START and in rebuilding European security arrangements which, due to Russia’s actions, have fallen in to disrepair."

[Within the document Control-F for many other references to Ukraine]

INDIA, QUAD, AUKUS page 37: "As we work with South Asian regional partners to address climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the PRC’s coercive behavior, we will promote prosperity and economic connectivity across the Indian Ocean region. The Quad and AUKUS will also be critical to addressing regional challenges, and we will further reinforce our collective strength by weaving our allies and partners closer together—including by encouraging tighter linkages between likeminded Indo-Pacific and European countries." 

AUSTRALIA JAPAN KOREA INDIA page 38: "...We reaffirm our iron-clad commitments to our Indo-Pacific treaty allies—Australia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand—and we will continue to modernize these alliances. We reaffirm our unwavering commitment to the defense of Japan under our mutual security treaty, which covers the Senkaku Islands [Pete Comment: A complication for Biden is that Taiwan also claims the Senkakus - calling them the "Tiaoyutai" islands] . As India is the world’s largest democracy and a Major Defense Partner, the United States and India will work together, bilaterally and multilaterally, to support our shared vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific..." 

There are many other interesting parts including "Deepen Our Alliance with Europe" from page 38 onwards.

Taiwan Unimpressed With Elon Musk's Advice

Elon Musk's suggestion Taiwan should bow to China's will has led to backlash.

Australia's SBS News, October 10, 2022, reports: 

"...Elon Musk's comments over the weekend on both the China-Taiwan dispute and the war in Ukraine have fueled another Twitter storm and ire from politicians, while community leaders in Australia claim the billionaire's thoughts were both inappropriate and "embarrassing".

The Tesla and SpaceX CEO, thought to be the world's richest person, on [October 8, 2022] told the Financial Times that allowing China some control over Taiwan would help to resolve the cross-strait dispute.

...Yi-Tsun Chen, president of Taiwanese Assoc of Canberra [Taiwan's defacto Embassy], said the comments led him to believe Mr Musk was an "idiot". He said Mr Musk failed to understand that Taiwan had grown apart from China and has now developed it's own unique culture..."

Wiki reports on Musk-Tesla's "Relations with the governmentof China":

"Tesla has received special treatment and strong government support in China, gaining perks such as tax breaks, cheap financing, the ability to wholly own its Chinese operations, and assistance in building its Shanghai factory (Giga Shanghai) at breakneck speed.^[244] 

During the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Bloomberg, one Tesla executive said, "Tesla didn't just have a green light from the [Chinese] government to get back to work—it had a flashing-sirens police escort."^[244]

Musk has frequently praised China, a controversial stance due to deteriorating U.S.–Chinese relations, China's ongoing persecution of Uyghurs, and alleged human rights abuses in Hong Kong.^[245] James McGregor, chairman for Greater China at APCO Worldwide, said that foreign companies in China under Chinese Communist Party general secretary Xi Jinping need to "be aware that the ultimate plan is for all the advanced technologies to be Chinese."^[245] McGregor added, "I hope that Elon is going in there with both eyes open."^[245]

In August 2020, Congressional negotiators (led by then-U.S. Senator Cory Gardner) highlighted Tesla's ties to China as a potential national security risk for the United States.^[246][247]

In July 2021, Bloomberg Businessweek reported on Tesla's "fall from grace" in China due to data collection and safety issues. Tesla reportedly asked the Chinese government to censor criticism of Tesla on social media.^[248]"