September 12, 2022

QUEEN'S FUNERAL SCHEDULE and Stirring Anthems


Above is Princess Elizabeth and then Queen Elizabeth II around 90. 
(Photos courtesy India's The Tribune)

--- 

Below is the QUEEN'S FUNERAL SCHEDULE.

For London (GMT+1) time see this article.

Monday, September 19, Australian Eastern Standard Times (AEST) are below: 

5pm AEST Rather lengthy BBC interviews, crowd shots

6pm then eventually a bit of action with soldiers and sailors parading around Westminster Hall.

7:44pm: Queen's coffin leaves Westminster Hall with 142 sailors pulling (not themselves) but Queen's Gun Carriage. Followed by King and Royals.

Procession expected to arrive at Westminster Abbey 8 minutes later.

8pm Funeral service begins. 2,000 there eg. Biden and Albo.

UK PM Liz Truss reads scriptures.

Archbishop of Canterbury gives sermon before the Westminster Dean Davo gives blessing.

8:55pm AEST Service draws to a close. Last Post played.

2 minutes silence.

9pm Reveille, revised UK National Anthem and lament played by Queen's Piper.

9:15pm AEST: Coffin back to Gun Carriage. Procession, including King, begins journey to Wellington Arch, Hyde Park Corner, about 3.5km away from Westminster Abbey.

Queen's coffin travels down Mall for final time, and past Buckingham Palace.

Throughout marching Minute guns are fired from Hyde Park, Big Ben tolling.

10pm AEST Procession arrives at Wellington Arch.

There, Queen's coffin placed in hearse. Queen leaves London to Windsor Castle. Royals follow in cars.

12 Midnight AEST Hearse arrives at Windsor

12:10am hearse joins procession to St George's Chapel Windsor.

King and senior Royals expected to join procession 30mins later, when it reaches Quadrangle at Windsor Castle.

All  through marching Minute guns firing at Windsor, Tower bells tolling.

Procession stops at St George's Chapel, before the Queensy Babe moved inside.

1am AEST: A "smaller" Committal service of only about 800 guests will be held. Probably see Albo.

Dean of Windsor conducts service, Choir sings.

Before final hymn, Imperial State Crown, orb and sceptre, used in
Queen's Coronation, will be removed from coffin and placed on altar.

King and Lord Chamberlain perform.

Queensy Babe's Coffin then lowered into Royal Vault as Dean Davo reads psalms.

Sovereign's Piper plays again.

The Archbishop of Canterbury gives blessing. God Save the King sung



At http://youtu.be/0j2j7t-4wAY and above you'll be surprised that, recognising that Britain was the main Superpower in the 19th century, many Kingdoms and even the US used the "God Save the Queen/King" tune for a time. Countries included Prussia and even Russia. Also noting many sovereigns were related to British monarchs - especially Queen Victoria. Even the USA used the tune for 100 years as an unofficial Anthem tune up to 1931.

4:30am AEST a private burial service is held. Royals only.

She will be buried alongside Prince Philip.

Bye Bye Queensy Babe, sob Emoji 

The video here and below is the Anthem to be played for Charles Coronation and I think it a fitting tribute to the Queen (best played loud). 

Pete

September 9, 2022

The Queen's Passing: God Save Charlie

Princess Elizabeth around 1936. Before she became Queen Elizabeth II in 1952. (Photo courtesy Royal Family via Town&Country and Getty images)
---
 

Queen Elizabeth II died on September 8, 2022 at 96. As a long-term Constitutional Monarchist I am black clad in grief for widely loved Queen Elizabeth II’s passing.

Elizabeth was a superbly neutral Head of State and successfully evolved the Commonwealth.

With sorrow comes uncertainty whether the institution of the Royal family will falter under new King Charles III

Historically the two previous King Charles didn’t perform well. King Charles I mismanaged his job into five years of English Civil War (1642-1647) and after his performance appraisal, lost his head. King Charles II wasn't crash hot either. 

King Charles III brings the baggage of neglect of his first wife Diana mainly due to his adulterous love of the new Queen Consort Camilla. Camilla's popularity as ex-royal mistress has always been tarnished. King Charles III, during his long Prince of Wales job, also brings the stigma of failing to be politically neutral – see the “Black spider memos”. 

For Australians King Charles III popularity, or lack of it, will be crucial regarding the long running issue of Australia becoming a Republic. An Australian Republic would replace the British Monarch, as Head of State, with a President. It is significant that following the Australian Labor Party’s victory in the May 2022 Federal Election, new Prime Minister Albanese created the position of Assistant Minister for the Republic. This signalled a commitment to prepare Australia for a transition to a Republic during the future second term of a Labor government, in 2025 to  2028.

I think Charles will have trouble filling the shoes of the widely loved Queen  Elizabeth II.

Submarine Matters, in its very wide brief, will continue to provide updates on the King Charles III vs Australian Republic issue.

27 seconds into this video is ordinarally the Coronation Anthem. But I see it as a remembrance Anthem for the young, now late, Queen Elizabeth II. Constitutional Monarchists are in trepidation that Charlie can fill the job well.
---

September 8, 2022

UK Clarifying Carriage of Australian SSN Program

On September 5, 2022 Anonymous made some interesting and well-balanced comments, as follows:

LEX's comments made me pause to go back over recent ministerial statements to see if I had missed anything. I had.

The biggest hints on AUKUS were not from Australian Minister for Defence Marles' comments in the UK last week, but from the UK Secretary for Defence Ben Wallace when standing next to [Marles] at their joint press conference in the UK. 

Wallace was much more confident of a joint UK/AUS SSNR [aka SSN(R)] build. Marles, though standing next to him, did not contradict Wallace.

First Wallace said:

"As if buying an American one off-the-shelf, or one of these ones [ie. SSNs] off-the-shelf – it’s not that. AUKUS is a collaborative program between three nations and the question is how do we all get to 2035-2040 in our deliveries, which we all need for our cycles, and how collaborative can we be."

Then Wallace said:

"I think there’s a confusion as to somehow this is me trying to sell that submarine and the Minister [Marles] will go off to the United States and buy that, but actually the ultimate is to get all of us to get through the 2030s where we produce a submarine that is in my view, truly collaborative, might have a bit of all three on it."

The USN SSN program chief [Rear Admiral Scott Pappano] virtually dealt themselves [the US] out of an AUKUS sub build last week with Adm Pappano saying it [the US providing SSNs to Australia] would be "detrimental" (to the USN SSN program).

[Anonymouses Comment]

So if everyone is telling the truth I think AUKUS will see a joint UK/RAN SSNR design followed by a joint build between BAE Barrow and ASC, with some US technology included.

Pete Comment

1.  Yes it is almost certain that the US technology on Australia's future SSNs, will, include the US AN/BYG-1 (or its successor) Combat System. This already permits Australian submarines to fully interoperate with the USN. That Combat System (including US weapons, sensors, communications and huge networked databases) is already on Australia's Collins submarines. 

2.  Regarding the oft brought up belief that a US reactor could go into a UK SSNR hull. This is not so, because apparently the UK PWR3 reactor, very likely to go into the UK Dreadnought SSBNs and UK SSN(R)s is/will actually draw on US S9G reactor technology. 

The authors of Wiki explain: the "PWR3 [is and will be] a new system "based on a US design but using UK reactor technology".[18][19] The [UK] Royal Institution of Naval Architects reported that it was likely that the UK was given access to the US Navy S9G reactor design used in their Virginia-class submarines..."

3.  In terms of UK Secretary for Defence Wallace's comment: "...2035-2040 in our deliveries..." I am of the conservative belief that the first UK designed SSNR aka SSN(R) must follow completion of the UK Dreadnought SSBN Program. That timing reality might see the first SSNR launched in the UK in about 2039. Then post-launch completion and trials then may see it commissioned in 2044.

The first Australian SSNR/SSN(R) might be launched in Osborne, Adelaide, in 2041, with post-launch completion and trials perhaps seeing it commissioned in 2046. 

September 5, 2022

Taiwan War Shipping, Undersea Cable Shocks & Famine

The Maritime Executive has produced an excellent, though initially repeditive,

report of September 4, 2022 entitled:

"Report: Invasion of Taiwan Risks Container Shipping, Internet Cables"
Taiwan will be far worse than the Ukraine War, particularly for the US economy.
My Own Idea:
The Ukraine War has boosted a global food crisis. This would be made much worse by a war over Taiwan. Any prolonged disruption to finely balanced Northeast Asian food supplies might cause major famine in mainland China, Taiwan, Japan and the Koreas.

September 1, 2022

AUKUS SSN Remains Dog's Breakfast: Hybrid Type?

Reported today - a US Admiral says SSNs for Australia would disrupt US and UK production lines. 

While in the same report the UK Defence Secretary Wallace goes the opposite way in theorising the US and UK might restructure their production methods to meet Australian needs, ie:

“Australia's submarine "may look like something none of us have in our stocks", with the latest post-Astute class submarine designs fully shared among Australia, Britain and the US.

There appears to be considerable miscommunication between the US and UK already on the implications of AUKUS. 

International alliances to build completely common SSN types been never existed. One reason is the US would impose the extra high cost of the US administered SUBSAFE program on the UK.

What could go wrong with Adelaide possibly designing, but more definitely building, an unprecedented common-hybrid submarine? This would combine UK features and US features, with the latter requiring the US SUBSAFE Program be applied to Australia. As one of the costs I understand SUBSAFE requires all submarine commanders and executive officers having nuclear engineering degrees before they can command a nuclear sub.  

August 25, 2022

China Taking Taiwan within Two Years? Econo-Politics.


China doesn't suffer from the downsides of new party in power commotion from elections every 3-5 years. So its long term senior officials and CCP leaders can keep their eyes on the ball, One China treaties and all. My take Taiwan by missile theory may make invasion lower risk for China.

Timelines that may increase or decrease chances that China may invade Taiwan within the next 2 years include: 

-  Added to supply chain slowdowns China is experiencing a drought, leading to hydropower and food shortages that are slowing economic growth. Hence value of a Peoples War distraction. 

- the risk Xi needs the extra popularity that a Xi created wartime Presidency would provide. This is before or after the November 2022 Party Congress. The Congress is expected to certify Xi as leader for a third term which may pan out to life. 

- the US midterm Elections in November 2022 may associate Biden with losing  Democrats while the Trump myth wins. China may want to take Taiwan while Biden is muddling along, ie. before November 2024 when a tougher US President might be elected.  

We live in interesting times.