July 31, 2018

US diplomats secretly meet Afghan Taliban. What of Afghan IS?

Illustrating the Taliban is not the only insurgent force in Afghanistan is the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI's) 2017 map of other Islamist groups in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Middle East, Africa and ISIS in the Philippines. (See much larger on page 9 of this ODNI Report).
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The INTELNEWS, July 31, 2018 article US diplomats secretly met with Taliban without Afghan government is interesting.

PETE COMMENT

The US and coalition allies have been faced with a never ending war in Afghanistan since 2001 which has cost $Billions, maybe one US$Trillion. “The estimate for the cost of deploying one US soldier in Afghanistan is over US$1 million a year.

As one response to 9/11 Afghanistan has also cost the lives of 3,405 Western troops (see right sidebar “Casualties and losses”) including 2,271 Americans, 456 British and 41 Australians.

A problem with the US negotiating with an enemy to end a war (eg. Vietnam and now Afghanistan) is responding to US public questions “why did our loved ones die fighting?” A Government response along the lines of “Peace with Honour” or this is part of the "War on Terror" wears thin.

But how do you stop an unconventional war without clear enemy combatants, with no clear territory to take and without an enemy government to surrender?

Also the Taliban are not the only enemy in Afghanistan. Other anti-Western, Islamist, or "terrorist", insurgents operate in Afghanistan including Islamic State. Will or can the US Government negotiate with Islamic State forces in Afghanistan?

Pete

July 30, 2018

As Predicted New Zealand Buying 4 P-8 Poseidons as its main MPA Force

As predicted in January 2017 when I said "I think NZ buying 4 x P-8 Poseidon MPAs is more likely...This is noting NZ's main ally, Australia, is buying the P-8."

The New Zealand Defence Minister, Ron Mark, July 9, 2018, announced it is buying 4 x P-8 MPAs. Ron Mark notes the purchase will allow New Zealand to "work effectively with partners including Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, which all operate, or will operate, [P-8s]”

Pete

July 29, 2018

Crimean War 1850s - No Wonder Russia Occupied Crimea 2014

The Charge of the Light Brigade, 1854 by Richard Caton Woodville (1856-1927), (Published by Henry Greaves and Co, London, 1895).
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Its no wonder that Russia risked international pariah status in 2014 by retaining or reoccupying all of the Crimean Peninusula in order to protect Russia's Black Sea Fleet's status at the port of Sevastopol. This month my local Poetry Group commissioned me to do the following synopsis of the Crimean War and its relationship to the Tennyson's 1854 poem The Charge of the Light Brigade.

The Crimean War was fought from October 1853 until the peace treaty in February 1856. The War claimed at least 750,000 casualties mostly from disease (including 530,000 Russians).

Origins of the war included a power vacuum created by the weakening of the Ottoman/Turkish Empire particularly its chaotic hold on the southern European (Balkans eg. Rumanian and Bulgarian) territory as well as the Middle East. A religious and racial justification was added by Russia (defending Eastern orthodox Christian rights in Jerusalem and Balkan states) and France defending of Catholic rights in the Turkish Empire.

Britain and France’s main concern was not religious but strategic. Britain and France feared that as Russia took over Turkish territory (especially in the Balkans) Russia would become the strongest power in Europe. In 1853 Russian demands that its soldiers defend Eastern Orthodox Christian rights in the Turkish dominated Balkan countries became too much for Britain and France.

The British, French and Turkish Alliance in 1854 decided to invade the Russian strategic base in the tiny Black Sea peninsula of Crimea. The ultimate objective being the Russian Fleet Base and fortress of Sevastopol. The British/French fear was if Russia retained Crimea AND took over the Turkish capital at Constantinople (that controlled Mediterranean access to the Black Sea) Russia could gain influence in the Mediterranean Sea and surrounding countries. Britain and France also wanted to protect their future 1859 on Egyptian Suez Canal project from possible Russian influence.

Poor British/French organisation and the strength of the Russian defended Sevastopol fortress meant that a year long siege developed. Like most extended old-fashioned sieges disease broke out due to crowding and sewerage infected water. Disease killed far more men on all sides than Crimean battle deaths.

On 25 October 1854 the Russians tried to weaken the siege by attempting a large assault on the British supply port of Balaklava. This confused combination of events became known as the Battle of Balaklava of which part became known as the Charge of the Light Brigade. This Brigade was of 670 light cavalry who were not meant to assault a Russian Force of around 50 canon, but (less mentioned) around 8,000 Russian infantry who shot at the Light Brigade. The Charge was meant to retake some wheeled canon or “guns” that the Russians had stolen from the British. 

Of the 670 the Charge caused 270 casualties (110 killed, 160 wounded). This 40% casualty rate was actually not unusual in the preceding Napoleonic wars and subsequent First World War.

Reasons for the charge included poor communication between the British High Command and the commander leading the Light Brigade. Miltary expert Field Marshal Wolseley later recalled that during the Crimean War era the British Army did not study war. Hence, when the Crimean War broke out, so ignorant were our generals and our colonels, it is a marvel any of us survived. Our officers had no training. They never read a book upon military matters, and at the mess, those who mentioned tactics were told to "shut up." Since the Napoleonic Wars the British Army was clear out of practice.

Tennyson probably never visited Crimea (?). His poem was published 3 weeks after the Charge. Another major event was the counter-propaganda of the "Thin Red Line" of mainly Scottish red coated infantry who gloriously blocked a Russian cavalry charge at Balaklava.

The British losses epitomised by the Charge became such a major public and high political concern that a riot broke out in London in January 1855. By 1855 Britain, France and Russia all wanted the war to end, leading to the Treaty of Paris in March 1856.

Besides Florence Nightingale and military medicine what came out of the war was Russian author Leo Tolstoy’s interest in War. Unlike Tennyson Tolstoy was at Crimea serving as a young artillery officer (promoted for heroism). Tolstoy recorded that time in his short story book Sevastopol Sketches

Although not as wasteful as many military actions The Charge of the Light Brigade became synonymous with the horrors of war.

Pete

July 27, 2018

Thailand's Mini-submarine Requirements - Possible Foreign Suppliers

A newbuild South Korean HHI HDS-400 (400 tonne surfaced or submerged?) mini-sub may be what Thailand may buy. Or perhaps a modernised version of the 1980s Russian Piranha/Losos mini-sub (photo above). Thailand's requirements may be - operate in very shallow water, Special Operations and generalised training capabilities. 
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The Thai government in mid July 2018 approved an (equivalent to) US$5.8m project to design a mini-submarine. It is early days, but so far the Thai project is named the Chalawan-class. Requirements are reported as:
-  150-300 tonne surfaced displacement

-  crew of 10, and
-  300 nautical mile range. 
(Comment - Lithium-ion batteries only, with no diesels, might be sufficient for a range so short.)

COMMENT (Speculative of course!)

These miniature submarines may be designed for the very shallow waters of the Gulf of Thailand, waters probably too shallow for the 3 future Chinese built Yuan derivative S26T submarines, that Thailand is buying. Minisubmarines generally can also serve as Special Forces transporters and cheap training platforms for crews before they man larger subs.

WHAT COUNTRIES MAY ASSIST THAILAND?

From SSMs records both Germany and South Korea have developed plans for submarines in the 150 – 300 tonnes range. More substantially South Korea has actually built and operated 175 tonne Dolgorae-class submarines with 14 crewmen. 

South Korea's remaining two Dolgoraes, launched 1990-1991 will reach the end of their usual South Korean Navy operational lives by 2020. Perhaps they could be (or will be) sold to Thailand, within the next 2 years for Thailand's floated US$5.8 million. Maybe logical as less than $6 million won't buy much submarine!

Interestingly in September 2015 Wiki and Janes reported that South Korea's Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) started construction of a single 40 metre long HDS-400 mini submarine for an unnamed naval customer.[2] 

[Comment: could that customer be Thailand? Or if that customer (maybe the South Korean Navy?) dropped out has HHI offered the sub to Thailand?] 

Russian built and operated Piranha (“Losos”) minisubs also provide an option Russia could build for Thailand directly or pass designs to China for supply to Thailnd. Significantly specs for the Piranha/Losos coincide closely with Thailand’s stated requirements. With Piranhas/Losos:
-  Being 218 tons (surfaced)
-  Crew of 9
-  With a short 10 day endurance (enough for a Thai mission to Myanmar or Cambodian waters and
    back).

China has the industrial base and SSK building experience to also design such submarines (or adapt Russian designs) then make the parts for Thailand to assemble.

Pete

July 26, 2018

SSKs are Good For Intelligence Ops: HMS Onyx - Falklands War

The UK designed Oberon class sub HMS Onyx. (Photo courtesy RN Subs).
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Submarines are very capable at Signals Intelligence (SIGINT), traditional Human Intelligence (HUMINT) operations as well as Special Operations.

The following is a fragment of a slightly longer article “War Patrol The Falklands - HMS Onyx” (retrieved July 25, 2018) based on original Source: The Submariner 03/2004 in RN Subs: Website of the Barrow Submariners Association. New links added in [...].

“...[the conventional sub - SSK HMS] Onyx had a double role, as well as adding the submarine deterrent, she could also be employed in reconnaissance and "cloak and dagger" operations, taking periscope photographs of enemy installations and likely landing areas for small groups of Special Forces. Onyx was better suited for this as she could move closer inshore where her silence of operation afforded her extra protection.

At Ascension Island, she picked up yet another cargo of SAS/[SBS] men trained in the clandestine arts of sabotage ashore for a series of operations. The crew worried about them every time they left, as it wasn't always the Onyx who picked them up again. [From Wiki "Contrary to some reports, after the British cancelled Operation Mikado, there was never a plan to use Onyx to land the SAS in order to destroy Argentina's remaining stockpile of Exocet missiles. Prior to the submarine being damaged the SBS had been embarked to attack a mainland airfield but this operation, too, was cancelled.]

One of the biggest problems was the navigational information available. [Even in 1982] The charts for this part of the globe were mainly signed by one Captain James Cook over 200 years ago [including South Georgia island, in 1775, which is near the Falklands. South Georgia was also occupied by Argentine forces during the Falklands War]. The give away was where the distance between the soundings of the seabed got to be five or ten miles apart. Onyx hit one rock that James Cook missed which put a bit of a dent in the front end of the submarine..."

Pete

July 20, 2018

Trump’s Constant Indiscreet Tweets Aid Hostile Intelligence Agencies

INTELNEWS, July 3, 2018, reports:

"...according to former Central Intelligence Agency analyst Nada Bakos, foreign intelligence agencies are among those paying close attention to the president’s tweets...

...All intelligence agencies, explains Bakos, build psychological profiles of foreign leaders. These profiles typically rely on information collected through intelligence operations that are “methodical, painstaking and often covert”. The final product can be crucial in enabling countries to devise strategies that counter their adversaries, says Bakos. But with Trump, covert intelligence-collection operations are not needed in order to see what is on his mind, since “the president’s unfiltered thoughts are available night and day”, she claims. 

The former CIA analyst points out that President Trump’s tweets are posted “without much obvious mediation” by his aides and advisors, something that can be seen by the frequency with which he deletes and reposts tweets due to spelling and grammatical errors. These unfiltered thoughts on Twitter offer a “real-time glimpse of a major world leader’s preoccupations, personality quirks and habits of mind”, says Bakos.

...[Bakos] clearly thinks that the US leader’s use of social media is too impulsive and potentially dangerous from a national-security perspective...."

Comment 

If only the leaders of Russia and China were as indiscreet as the random Trump!