Mr Pyne, Minister for South Australian Defence Industry, Bottom Lips

Christopher Pyne, Minister for (South) Australian Defence Industy puts on a brave face in Federal Parliament during criticism that he is merely South Australia's boy.

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The South Australian Adelaide Advertiser has gone the full ten yards in arguing that Defence Industry Minister, Christopher Pyne, is interested in states outside of  South Australia.

Mr Pyne, Member for the Adelaide, South Australian electorate of Sturt, has been valiant in co-opting the media in his attempts to appear a national politician.

The Adelaide Advertiser, on July 21, 2016 argued:

"Mr Pyne’s immediate priorities will include finalising the contract with French shipbuilder DCNS to act as the design partner on the submarine project that will create thousands of jobs in Adelaide and around Australia.

His appointment was met with sneers from some critics, who suggested there was something wrong with a minister being responsible for major defence procurements that will benefit his state."

Criticism of a federal politician who has been known to venture outside Adelaide and Canberra, is unbecoming.

As Submarine Matters gallantly argues, Mr Pyne is believed to have represented the interests of Whyalla, South Australia, which is not in Adelaide.

Pete

The US "Third Offset Strategy" overlaps with the SeaWeb Concept

The SeaWeb Network overlaps with other names such as Fixed Surveillance System (large PDF file - see pages 128-129). Older terms are IUSS and the most familiar (SOSUS). SeaWeb not only includes sonar, but LIDAR, LED, optical CCTV, motion-wake, infrared, chemical sniffing, radiation sensors and SIGINT amongst others. The revolution in sensor technology and big data management and storage has made SeaWeb a major unsung Western asset. (Diagram courtesy USN 2006). 

SeaWeb Concept

Different sounding military concepts are often very similar because of inter-service rivalries, different technical disciplines, different approaches, politics and new product packaging. It is notable that "Third Offset Strategy" is similar to the more naval aligned "SeaWeb" (frequently described by Submarine Matter's) ie. advanced sea orientated sensor platforms, big data and targeting. 

Japan, with its financial and high-tech resources, is a foundation participant with the US in the northwest Pacific SeaWeb branch. South Korea works with the US in a smaller branch network, which can be conceptualised as part of South Korea's Kill Chain strategy and infrastructure.

Major targets for the US, Japan and South Korea are Russian, Chinese and North Korean submarines. SeaWeb is being fine-tuned with more sensitive sensors to track enemy UUVs (smaller, quieter than subs and having the advantage of being expendable). 

Third Offset Concept 

Here's a great article by Steven Stashwick, appearing in The Diplomat, on July 21, 2016

...Perry’s demonstration of force put Japan’s defenselessness against modern military technology in stark relief and motivated a period of stunningly rapid Japanese economic, societal, and military modernization and expansion. That trajectory also led an ascendant Japan into violent conflict with the United States in World War II, a history with worrying parallels today. China too has been shocked by displays of U.S. military might into rapid military modernization paired with unprecedented economic growth. Today, the United States commonly describes China’s military intentions as“opaque.” China decries what it calls the U.S. pursuit of hegemony and a Cold War mindset. 

...China is well on its way to “offsetting” the U.S. “second offset” technologies and concepts that spooked it in the 1990s. In response, the U.S. is already working on a third offset to counter China’s anti-access/area denial capabilities... 

Also see this fine Australian discussion of "The third offset".

The invaluable Wiki advises:

"An offset is some means of asymmetrically compensating for a disadvantage, particularly in a military competition. Rather than match an opponent in an unfavorable competition, changing the competition to more favorable footing enables the application of strengths to a problem that is otherwise either unwinnable or winnable only at unacceptable cost....The U.S. Department of Defense's Defense Innovation Initiative was announced in November 2014.^[5] A core component of the initiative...will purportedly target several promising technology areas, including robotics and system autonomy, miniaturization, big data, and advanced manufacturing, while also seeking to improve the U.S. military's collaboration with innovative private sector enterprises.^[6]

The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments released a report outlining the potential components of a Third Offset Strategy in October 2014, shortly before Secretary Hagel's announcement. The report emphasizes the development of next-generation power projection platforms like unmanned autonomous strike aircraft, the acceleration of the [B-21] LRS-B, additional investments in undersea warfare systems like Unmanned Underwater Vehicles, and steps to reduce U.S. and partner vulnerability to the loss of space-based communications.^[7]"

Not to be outdone China and Russia have had their own SeaWeb networks for decades. Both nations are jointly developing increasingly sensitive and extensive networks, particularly in the Sea of Japan. If the pink submarine (in the diagram above) is a daring Western submarine moving within X kms of the Chinese coast - things may not end well. Chinese undersea SeaWeb sensors may alert (lightweight torpedo carrying) YU-8 anti submarine rocket batteries or CY-2 cruise missile batteries that the sub is encroaching where it shouldn't and is in range. Also Chinese smart and mobile seafloor mines, sown among the sensors, are another threat. The diagram above is on page 16 of American ex-submariner, Bryan Clark’s important paper The Emerging Era in Undersea Warfare, January 22, 2015.

So, depending on your interests, Third Offset Strategy or SeaWeb has the most resonance.

Pete

On The Beach and Seeing Australia as a Last Post After Armageddon

Graphic grounds-eye footage of one of the British two-stage thermonuclear device Operation Grapple tests held in the central Pacific in 1957-58. 

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Bombs are tested (1). Some may eventually be used (2) and the end of human existence may result (3). Step 1 has already happened to Australia and 2 and 3 may be to come. See the steps below.

1.  Australia was the testing ground for British fission "A" bombs at Emu Field and Maralinga 
     (map above) and then fusion boosted fission bombs in the Montebello Islands off Western 
     Australia.

     

2.  Australia in reality is a fall back option for US and British SSNs and SSBNs to finally move to 
     after a nuclear exchange. 

Drawn  from an article by Garrett M. Graff in the UK’s Politico Magazine July 14, 2016,  http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/07/the-grim-task-awaiting-teresa-may-preparing-for-nuclear-armageddon-214049

Theresa May, the new British Prime Minister has, by now, performed the melancholy duty of handwriting what is known as a “Letter of Last Resort”. The letter is secret instructions, to be remain sealed until after Armageddon, about what the UK’s SSBN commanders should do with their Trident missiles if the UK has been destroyed. Theresa May would have written four letters - one to each submarine commander of Britain's 4 SSBNs, HMS Vanguard, HMS Victorious, HMS Vigilant and HMS Vengeance.

The letters are then placed inside of a safe inside another safe, sitting in the control rooms of each SSBN. The safes will only be accessible to the sub’s commander and deputy, who must decide together when Britain has been entirely destroyed.

The letters would probably present options, depending on what has occurred in a nuclear exchange. The actual (one-way to the submarine) intelligence provided to a deep diving submarine during a nuclear exchange might be very limited. It is known, at least, that submarine commanders must check whether BBC’s Radio 4 is still broadcasting. If BBC’s Radio 4 is off the air then it is assumed all of Britain is.

A nuclear exchange would probably mean most bases and ports in the Northern Hemisphere would  be devastated. After checking what signals are received, surviving US and British submarines would see New Zealand or Australia as a place to go.

3.  On The Beach.  The "Famous 1959 film set in Australia. During 1964, in the months following World War III, the conflict has devastated the Northern Hemisphere, polluting the atmosphere with nuclear fallout, killing all life there. Air currents are slowly carrying the fallout south; the only areas still habitable are in the far reaches of the Southern Hemisphere. From Australia survivors detect an incomprehensible Morse code signal coming from the West Coast of the United States. The last American nuclear submarine, USS Sawfish, under Royal Australian Navy command...[see the rest of the plot]"

On The Beach (1959)(below)  - the submarine USS Sawfish is 2 minutes 55 seconds in and a sanitised End of the World (with no bodies or rusty metal on the windy streets). 

THE END

Surprise Majority UK Labour Vote for Trident SSBN Replacement, Russia, Turkey

Second or First Strike Cooperation

The light blue footprint reflects the limitations of the UK's Trident II D5 SLBM coverage, from the Atlantic Ocean launch basin. Half of Russia, most of China, and all of North Korea are not in the (likely 8,000-12,000 km) UK Trident range. This means the UK very much needs to launch in cooperation with the US, assuming US assumed global coverage (especially from the Pacific Ocean). 

If France's newish M51 SLBMs (at 8,000-10,000 km) have a 2,000 km shorter range - then that restricts France's deterrent reach even more. But then again France's deterrent is mainly to make Russia's losses unacceptable. (Map-Diagram courtesy FAS, UK Defence Review via BBC, 2016).

_____________________________________________________________

UK Trident Vote

On Monday night, July 18, 2016, a majority of UK Members of Parliament (in the House of Commons) voted to replace the 4 Vanguard class (Trident firing) SSBNs with the 4 new (Trident firing) Successor class SSBNs. 472 (including 322 Conservative) voted to replace versus 117. This  represents more than 80% in favour - a sound mandate to replace Trident.  

While it was not a surprise that most MPs voted for the replacement - because most MPs in the Commons are of the ruling Conservative Party - it was a surprise that a majority of Labour Party MPs voted for the replacement. 140 of Labour's 230 MPs voted for replacement (a total of 47 Labour members voted against replacement, while others abstained). 

This Labour Party result represents a divisive thrashing of the Labour Party Leader's authority. Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn is a very leftwing pacifist, so having most of his party in the Commons vote for a replacement of the SSBN's (the UK's only active nuclear weapons launch platform) is a bitter development for him. Corbyn's removal as Labour Leader is probably imminent.

Successor Class Basing and Cost Problems Remain

Problems of uncertain basing (ejection from Faslane submarine base in Scotland) and guaranteed rapidly escalating costs of the Trident replacement fleet remain. This is evinced by all but one of the MPs from Scotland voting against replacement.

A side note is that UK commentators seem to harbour a sexist surprise that the new female Prime Minister, Theresa May, says she would be willing to press the nuclear button without hesitation in a nuclear exchange. The effectiveness of a nuclear deterrent relies on assurance to an enemy that they would be destroyed in a SSBN/SLBM first or second strike situation.

Successor is probably a temporary name with a name more historical and British likely to replace it in years to come. The up front build cost of the 4 Successor class is currently estimated at UK £31 Billions total. This represents an injection of money into needy UK regional areas - a financial argument on top of national defence arguments for the Successors.

Russia Unhappy at Trident Vote but Happy With Turkey

Russia, under Putin, would not be happy. Russia would have preferred that its long moral/propaganda  (and perhaps financial) campaign that the UK undergo a process of unilateral nuclear disarmament has been frustrated once again. A disarmed UK would weaken NATO - a weakened NATO may be less threatening. A weaker NATO would permit lower Russian defence spending.

Nevertheless, this week has not been all bad news for Russia. With the near coup in Turkey, the important Turkish component of NATO is in temporary factional disarray. The Russians and US would be busy researching Turkey's latest troubles, separately.

BACKGROUND

Main reference the Members vote to renew Trident weapons system, BBC, July 19, 2016. Also see:

§  A guide to Trident

§  Trident replacement: What next?

§  What are the letters of last resort?

§  Does Britain need nuclear weapons?

See the Submarine Matters articles on UK-Trident Replacement and Brexit.

Pete

DefMin Marise Payne's Industry Power passed to Pyne - New Ministry List

The most politically influential (industrial) part of Defence Minister Marise Payne's portfolio has been passed to a more senior politician. That senior politician is the new Defence Industry Minister, Christopher Pyne (below). Many instances of "Payne/Pyne" confusion will now occur.

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1.  Where I indicated in Australian Election and Shipbuilding (of July 13, 2016) that Prime Minister  Turnbull's imminent post Election Ministerial reshuffle would likely involve:

"However, [Defence Minister Marise Payne's] portfolio, with its domestically influential shipbuilding programs, is now attractive to others, including Abbott"..."Alternatively the centrist (and significantly South Australian) Christopher Pyne may take her position."

The message of a diminuation of Marise Paynes' defence industry power appears accurate. 

Mr Pyne has made unsolicited comments on submarine building policy for at least a year - as these articles on Submarine Matters reveal.

Just announced today (July 18, 2016) in Turnbull's post Election Ministerial reshuffle is Christopher Pyne's new role of Minister for Defence Industry.

"Defence Industry Minister (to work on the new defence plan). Pyne will work alongside Defence Minister Marise Payne." see Huffington Post (Australia edition), July 18, 2016.

2.  The official New Turnbull Ministry List of 18 July 2016 (in WORD and PDF) is here. It was in WORD now in html (admittedly not perfect) below. Payne and Pyne are redded for emphasis:

TURNBULL MINISTRY  -  18 JULY 2016

Title	Minister
Prime Minister	The Hon Malcolm Turnbull MP
Minister for Indigenous Affairs	Senator the Hon Nigel Scullion
Minister for Women	Senator the Hon Michaelia Cash
Cabinet Secretary	Senator the Hon Arthur Sinodinos AO
Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for the Public Service	Senator the Hon Michaelia Cash
Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for Counter-Terrorism	The Hon Michael Keenan MP
Minister Assisting the Cabinet Secretary	Senator the Hon Scott Ryan
Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for Cyber Security	The Hon Dan Tehan MP
Assistant Minister to the Prime Minister Assistant Minister for Cities and Digital Transformation	Senator the Hon James McGrath The Hon Angus Taylor MP
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Agriculture and Water Resources	The Hon Barnaby Joyce MP
Assistant Minister for Agriculture and Water Resources Assistant Minister to the Deputy Prime Minister	Senator the Hon Anne Ruston The Hon Luke Hartsuyker MP
Minister for Foreign Affairs	The Hon Julie Bishop MP
Minister for Trade, Tourism and Investment	The Hon Steven Ciobo MP
Minister for International Development and the Pacific	Senator the Hon Concetta Fierravanti-Wells
Assistant Minister for Trade, Tourism and Investment	The Hon Keith Pitt MP
Attorney-General (Vice-President of the Executive Council) (Leader of the Government in the Senate)	Senator the Hon George Brandis QC
Minister for Justice	The Hon Michael Keenan MP
Treasurer	The Hon Scott Morrison MP
Minister for Revenue and Financial Services Minister for Small Business	The Hon Kelly O’Dwyer MP The Hon Michael McCormack MP
Minister for Finance (Deputy Leader of the Government in the Senate)	Senator the Hon Mathias Cormann
Special Minister of State	Senator the Hon Scott Ryan
Minister for Regional Development Minister for Local Government and Territories	Senator the Hon Fiona Nash Senator the Hon Fiona Nash
Minister for Infrastructure and Transport (Deputy Leader of the House)	The Hon Darren Chester MP
Minister for Urban Infrastructure	The Hon Paul Fletcher MP
Minister for Defence	Senator the Hon Marise Payne
Minister for Defence Industry (Leader of the House)	The Hon Christopher Pyne MP
Minister for Veterans’ Affairs Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for the Centenary of ANZAC	The Hon Dan Tehan MP The Hon Dan Tehan MP
Minister for Defence Personnel	The Hon Dan Tehan  MP
Minister for Immigration and Border Protection	The Hon Peter Dutton MP
Assistant Minister for Immigration and Border Protection	The Hon Alex Hawke MP
Minister for Industry, Innovation and Science	The Hon Greg Hunt MP
Minister for Resources and Northern Australia	Senator the Hon Matt Canavan
Assistant Minister for Industry, Innovation and Science	The Hon Craig Laundy MP
Minister for Health and Aged Care	The Hon Sussan Ley MP
Minister for Sport	The Hon Sussan Ley MP
Assistant Minister for Health and Aged Care	The Hon Ken Wyatt AM MP
Assistant Minister for Rural Health	Dr David Gillespie MP
Minister for Communications Minister for the Arts (Manager of Government Business in the Senate)	Senator the Hon Mitch Fifield Senator the Hon Mitch Fifield
Minister for Regional Communications	Senator the Hon Fiona Nash
Minister for Employment	Senator the Hon Michaelia Cash
Minister for Social Services	The Hon Christian Porter MP
Minister for Human Services	The Hon Alan Tudge MP
Assistant Minister for Social Services and Disability Services	The Hon Jane Prentice MP
Assistant Minister for Social Services and Multicultural Affairs	Senator Zed Seselja
Minister for Education and Training Assistant Minister for Vocational Education and Skills	Senator the Hon Simon Birmingham The Hon Karen Andrews MP
Minister for the Environment and Energy	The Hon Josh Frydenberg MP

      "Each box represents a portfolio. Cabinet Ministers are shown in bold type. As a general rule, there

      is one department in each portfolio.  However, there is a Department of Human Services in the Social

      Services portfolio and a Department of Veterans’ Affairs in the Defence portfolio. The title of a

      department does not necessarily reflect the title of a minister in all cases. Assistant Ministers in italics

      are designated as Parliamentary Secretaries under the Ministers of State Act 1952." 

   

      Pete