July 31, 2012

FOBS - Space Based Nuclear Weapons

 

Russian R-36 Missile (at right) used to boost the Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) into Space

Ever wondered why the US and Russia have developed space based weapons systems but never maintained them? Perhaps because these systems could be developed in secret and deployed as a "silver bullet" for a first strike in a nuclear war.

The Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) is old technology which could be easily updated. FOBS was a Soviet ICBM program in the 1960s that after launch would go into a low Earth orbit and the nuclear missle(s) would then hurtle back to Earth de-orbit for an attack.

In the early 1960s, the Soviets needed a way to overcome the forward base advantage held by the west. The west had forward bases in Turkey, Europe, and Asia from which shorter range missiles and bombers could attack the USSR. Following the failure of placing missiles to Cuba, the Soviets turned to technology to overcome the lack of forward positioning.

It had no range limit and the orbital flight path would not reveal the target location.

This would allow a path to North America over the South Pole, hitting targets from the south, which is the opposite direction from which

NORAD early warning systems are oriented.
By circumventing the existing US ballistic missile early warning radars FOBS [Globalsecurity reference] missiles could hit Strategic Air Command (SAC) airfields and missile silos before the bombers could take off or missiles launched. FOBS could have also conceivably destroyed ABM radars, disrupt US retaliatory capability, destroy command posts, the White House, and the command and control network. But, due to its limited accuracy and payload, FOBS was deemed ineffective against hardened targets.

The
Outer Space Treaty banned nuclear weapons or weapons of mass destruction in earth orbit. However, it did not ban systems that were capable of placing weapons in orbit, and the Soviet Union avoided violating the treaty by conducting tests of its FOBS system without live warheads.

The Soviets developed three missiles to employ FOBS, with only one entering service:

- The orbital missile 8K69 was initially deployed in 1968, and the first regiment with the

R-36 orbital missiles was put on alert in 1969.
- The
Global Rocket 1, or GR-1, was cancelled due to engine problems.
- The
R-46 was not developed, and eventually scrapped.
The U.S. Defense Support Program early warning satellites enabled the US to detect a FOBS launch.

The
SALT II agreement (1979) prohibited the deployment of FOBS systems:Each Party undertakes not to develop, test, or deploy. However thats what they claim. Who knows what they've built or can build quickly.

I wonder what China has in mind?!

July 28, 2012

2008 test of Pakistan's Raad Hatf-8 missile



Raad Hatf-8 in flight - see Wikipedia
 

And on parade. Does anyone have any verifiable photos of a different shape? Some theories are that it looks more like an American style cruise missile than a shorter range standoff weapon.
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As reported on ABC Online, August 25, 2007 Pakistan tested its Raad (Hatf-8) missile in August 2007.

Publicity about the latest test is largely misleading - usually making it appear that the Raad is a brand new missile and that Thursday May 8, 2008's test was the first test. The publicity is both a genuine way of boosting Pakistani national pride and seems more immediately a reaction to India's test launch Wednesday, May 7, 2008 of its Agni III IRBM.

Defensetalk.com of May 8, 2008 has a useful report on Pakistan's May 8, 2008 Raad test:

"ISLAMABAD: Pakistan on Thursday successfully tested a ground-hugging cruise missile capable of carrying both nuclear and conventional warheads, the military said.The Hatf-VIII (Ra'ad) missile, developed exclusively for launch from the air, has a range of 350 kilometres (217 miles), a statement said.

"It has enabled Pakistan to achieve a greater strategic stand-off capability on land and at sea," it said.
It is a low-altitude, terrain-following missile with high manoeuvrability, and can deliver all types of warheads, with great accuracy," it said.

The firing comes just a day after neighbouring India tested a ballistic, nuclear-capable missile capable of hitting targets deep inside China.

President Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani congratulated the Pakistani scientists and engineers on their "outstanding" success.

"The missile test is part of a continuing process of validating the design parameters of the weapon system," the statement said.

Last month Pakistan military carried out a training launch of Shaheen II, or Hatf VI, a long-range nuclear-capable missile which can hit targets far into India.

...South Asian rivals India and Pakistan -- which have fought three wars, two of them over the disputed Himalayan territory of Kashmir -- routinely carry out missile tests since both demonstrated nuclear weapons capability in 1998."

Comment

India routinely criticises Pakistan for not building wholly original weapons. I'm semi-confident in saying that France, the US and Russia rely on almost totally homegrown aerospace technology while other countries use varying degrees of foreign content (especially engines).

Both India and Pakistan have developed highly advanced technology, most notably ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons. As these weapons are potent symbols of national pride both are very reluctant to indicate any foreign content or assistance. Another issue is that those countries that have provided components or assistance (intentionally or unintentionally) don't want this widely known.

Missile tests as a demonstration of national power (by anyone US, Russia, Pakistan and India) are an interesting, expensive and inherently dangerous pastime.

Further Comment

The Raad, Hatf-8 appears in some ways to be a scaled down Russian KSR-2 / KS-11 / KSR-II AS-5 (Nato name is "KELT") . Here's a sketch of the Kelt. The Kelt went into service in Russia in the mid 1960's
.
Pete

July 27, 2012

Some picture prose - Nighthawks Cafe


Nighthawks was painted in 1942 by American artist Edward Hopper (1882 to 1967). It was intended to reflect the somber uncertainty in America that followed the Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbour in late 1941.
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The following is a departure from this website's concentration on international pressures of the present and future. This is a look at a famous work of art of the past, but through a bit of poetic licence it is linked with present events:

Nighthawks Café
Four people exist at the Nighthawks Cafe, in lower Manhattan. It is dark and quiet. No movement outside.

Yellow light gleams strong in Nighthawks though too weak to blaze through the glass to give the surrounding street life. No pictures on the walls, only canary yellow paint.

A Cafe for people who drift or pass. One staring down at his cup. Two occasionally chatting. The three men wear formal day hats even though it is midnight.

The busy 1940s soda slinger wears white like an icecream man. All in white at that time of night. The shiny coffee urns also strangely spell icecream but are hot. A brown swing door is the soda slinger’s way out to a back room then freedom – but on the whole he’s resigned, almost content.

The Cafe has heard many things, knows the secrets of thousands of late night desperate people who’ve hunched there for years. Tired people after long days. Few words spoken. Often just the sound of coffee being poured and sipped.

Nighthawks will exist for many years, be renovated, jazzed up. It will enjoy high times, the wealthy, the sad who exist.


Then in 1966 crushed by a steel ball it will make way for a World Trade Centre.


by Peter Coates
June 22, 2008

July 21, 2012

RATTLRS Supersonic Cruise Concept - a BrahMos Beater?

Artist's mockup of the jet powered supersonic missile concept dubbed Revolutionary Approach To Time Critical Long Range Strike (RATTLRS)
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My post Hypersonic Missile Research and Doctrine of October 26, 2008 touched on the major heating problems of hypersonic missile flight above Mach 4. This may not be solved for 20 years.


There is also a propulsion problem - in the thick atmosphere there is currently a tradeoff between speed and range. The premier supersonic missile, the Indian-Russian BrahMos, may be able to travel up to Mach 2.8 but its range is probably less than 300km due to its heavy powerplant. This is a solid-propellant rocket for initial acceleration and a liquid-fueled ramjet for sustained flight.

In recognition of hypersonic heat and range problems the US-UK RATTLRS project has adopted an evolutionary approach - high supersonic speed (between Mach 3 and 4) using a single jet engine - rather than hypersonic speed with a two-stage rocket/ramjet (or scramjet) combination.
Simplicity is in the single stage and travelling within the bounds of the heat tolerance of airframe materials.
Wiki provides the following:


"The Lockheed Martin RATTLRS (Revolutionary Approach To Time Critical Long Range Strike) is an advanced cruise missile concept demonstration funded by the US Navy with the view to develop technologies that would then be used to develop a successor to the BGM-109 Tomahawk.

Lockheed’s Skunk Works is prime contractor, while Rolls Royce Liberty Worksis designing the YJ102R high-Mach turbine engine. The missile's airframe is similar in size and shape to the engine nacelle of the SR-71
Popular Mechanics says about the RATTLRS YJ102R turbine engine (probably a mockup above) it "might be the most powerful turbojet on the planet—at least by weight. It’s barely bigger than two breadboxes."
Background

Janes provides details of the requirement and thinking behind super-hyper sonic missile systems.

"The US has been examining a range of very high-speed strike weapon concepts for a number of years. These weapons, both sea- and air-launched, have been drawn up for use against mobile and/or time-critical targets, along with hardened and buried targets. In all cases the weapons rely on the kinetic effects of a ramjet powerplant to attain the velocities needed to be effective against such target sets.

The supporters of these 'leap ahead' weapons point to their combination of range, speed and payload as a much needed way to provide the increased lethality required to defeat hardened targets (HARTs) in a non-nuclear package. The optimum penetration effect of a weapon in this class would be between 30 and 55 m.

In 1998 the US Navy drew up the concept for what, by 2001, had become known as the Joint Supersonic Cruise Missile (JSSCM) and Advanced Concept Technology Demonstrator (ACTD). To make the case for this weapon, CINC CFC Pacific prepared a brief that highlighted the effectiveness of a very accurate long-range, high-speed missile against mobile weapons deployed by North Korea, such as its 240 mm multiple-launch rocket systems. The same weapon would also be effective against special weapons facilities, command and control centres and air bases.

The promise held out for the JSSCM was to develop a system that could deny, degrade or destroy North Korea's strategic and operational centres of gravity within 15 minutes of the decision to launch."

Project Status

On September 28, 2007 Lockheed-Martin announced RATTLRS has completed "proof pressure testing" [what is that?]. Lockheed added: "This testing is a significant milestone as we enter into final integration and system checkouts prior to flight demonstrations planned for early 2008,"


Rolls-Royce announced on January 12, 2009 that it had successfully completed an initial test of its advanced, high-specific thrust YJ102R engine at the Indianapolis, Indiana facility. This test is the first of a series to be performed by LibertyWorks (Rolls-Royce North American Technologies Inc) , the company's research unit, and is designed to validate critical performance criteria under its High Speed Turbine Engine Demonstration (HiSTED) contract with the US Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL).

Comment
If the US Navy is still pressing ahead with RATTLRS it would be mindful that when some US Trident submarines are fitted with Tomahawk cruise missiles meaning a cost in terms of much slower speed (time to target) compared to ballistic missiles. RATTLERS might partially make up for the shortfall. Still supersonic or hypersonic missiles suffer from, to date insoluble problems, including heat buildup, air resistence and short range for their size UNLESS:

- they have a hybrid (say turbofan and rocke) end which would mean varying velocities (though a high speed end run, say for 50 km, would be desirable) 

- and/or they are in thin (high altitude) or no air (space).

RATTLRS might also provide the new USS Virginia Class attack submarines with more potent cruise missiles, though RATTLRS might turn out to be only 20% faster than Tomahawk ie barely supersonic/supercruise.

For Australia possession of a missile with RATTLRS capabilities would be useful in the Future Submarines (Project SEA 1000) now envisaged to be operation after 2025. Air launched RATTLRS might also make up for some deficiencies in the F-35's ability to penetrate strong air defences (assuming Australia cannot buy the superior F-22 not even to face PAK FAs or Chinese made stealth jets).
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Pete

July 16, 2012

New US Paper on China's NSA (aka PLA GSD Third Department)


MAP - Global Security gives directions to the HQ of China's NSA (the PLA ("3rd Department") or one could call it PLA-IT) "...covertly located. Situated on the road between the Summer Palace and Xiangshan [Fragrant Hills], it is far from downtown and there is no plate or signboard at the gate."
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The Washington thinktank knowns as the Project 2049 Institute, drawing on the experience of US  Defense intelligence alumni and declassified information, has produced a detailed paper on China's Defence Sigint and Infosec Service. The paper's full title is The Chinese People's Liberation Army Signals Intelligence and Cyber Reconnaissance Infrastructure, of November 11, 2011 by Mark A. Stokes, Jenny Lin and L.C. Russell Hsiao. Its full string is here https://project2049.net/2011/11/11/the-chinese-peoples-liberation-army-signals-intelligence-and-cyber-reconnaissance-infrastructure/

Here are some excerpts (some I've bolded) on each page reflecting some of the more interesting details:

Summary/Abstract

By: Mark Stokes, Jenny Lin, and Russell Hsiao |
This study offers a tentative baseline for assessing the GSD Third Department, affiliated Technical Reconnaissance Bureaus (TRBs), and supporting research and development organizations. An examination of this organization, its role and function would provide a mosaic with which to better evaluate China‘s signal intelligence and cyber-infrastructure. The data points assembled by this monograph points to an expansive yet stovepiped organization responsible for various facets of technical reconnaissance, including collection of wireless line of sight communications, satellite communications, cyber surveillance, network traffic analysis, network security, encryption and decryption, translation, and political, military, and economic analysis
 
p.2 "This overview offers a preliminary examination of the PLA [General Staff Department] GSD Third Department, China‘s premier cryptologic service. The CCP owes its success during the Chinese Civil War to signals intelligence (SIGINT) derived from interception and decoding of telegrams and radio communications. With modest origins in the 1930s, the Third Department was previously known as the Central Military Commission (CMC) Second Bureau and consisted of three entities responsible for collection, translation, and deciphering/encryption.

Today, the GSD Third Department and its counterparts within the PLA‘s Military Regions (MRs), Air Force, Navy, and Second Artillery oversee a vast infrastructure for monitoring communications traffic from collection sites inside China, possibly from embassies and other facilities abroad, and perhaps from space-based assets in the future. Its network of assets are able — assuming sufficient interest and barring sophisticated encryption — to monitor almost any radio communication or phone call within line of sight of Third Department SIGINT...
 
p. 3 "...On the other hand, faced with increasing challenges to its communication systems and computer networks, the Third Department also has assumed the responsibility for assuring the security of PLA computer systems in order to prevent foreign adversaries from gaining access to sensitive national security information. These functions are encompassed under the concept of technical reconnaissance which is the foundation of ―informatized warfare.

Like its American counterpart, the National Security Agency (NSA), the GSD Third Department appears to be diversifying its traditional SIGINT mission. Cyber surveillance, or computer network exploitation (CNE) in the U.S. lexicon, represents the cutting edge of SIGINT and the Third Department may serve as the national executive agent for CNE. The GSD Third Department stands as a reasonable choice to act as the national PRC authority over cyber surveillance because of its traditional core competency in SIGINT, its high performance computing and encryption/decryption technical capabilities, and status as China‘s largest employer of well trained linguists. Computer network operations (CNO) in China often are referred to as network attack and defense, based on the premise that without understanding how to attack, one will not know how to defend. In the U.S. lexicon, CNO includes computer network attack (CNA), CNE, and computer network defense (CND)."
 
p.4 "...the GSD Third Department manages a vast communications intercept infrastructure and cyber surveillance system targeting foreign diplomatic communications, military activity, economic entities, public education institutions, and individuals of interest....One unconfirmed report credits the Third Department with as many as 130,000 personnel working in general headquarters staff positions, 12 operational bureaus, and three research institutes.

Major General Meng Xuezheng is reported to be serving as the Third Department Director. Meng appears to have replaced Lieutenant General Wu Guohua [Director 2005 - December 2010]...One Western report claims that Wu Guohua was transferred out due to unauthorized cyber operations..

p.5 "...According to one U.S. study, Chinese analysts believe that the United States is already carrying out extensive CNE activities against Chinese servers. Therefore, from the Chinese perspective, defending computer networks must be the highest priority in peacetime. ..."

p.7 "...In addition to a liaison office in Shanghai, the Third Department manages a Hong Kong and Macao Liaison Bureau"

p.8 "The Second Bureau appears to function as the Third Department‘s premier entity targeting the United States and Canada, most likely focusing on political, economic, and military-related intelligence."

p.9 [possibly covering Taiwan and South Asia is the Sixth Bureau] headquartered in Wuhan‘s Wuchang District.

p.15 [Paper's] Conclusion

"If information is power, then the GSD Third Department represents one of the most powerful bureaucracies in China today. Among its sources of strength is the country‘s largest pool of well trained linguists specialized in niche areas, such as banking and financial transactions, military activities, energy, and diplomatic exchanges.

The combination of SIGINT and CNE, for example, fusing transcripts of phone conversations with intercepted email exchanges, would enable a powerful understanding of plans, capabilities, and activities of an organization or individual in near real time. Key word and voice recognition technology and large data bases permit greater efficiency in collection directed against specific targets. Advanced computing facilitates breaking of all but the most sophisticated encryption and passwords. The linkage between CNO and PLA psychological warfare training units appears reasonable. Monitoring of communications, email accounts, websites, and internal networks could support sophisticated perception management operations."

p.16 "Beyond its traditional SIGINT mission, the Third Department serves as the national authority for CND and most likely CNE. "

p.17 "...If monitoring of the cybersphere and intrusion of foreign computer networks is an extension of SIGINT, then one could assume the Third Department prefers to operate surreptitiously. Alerting defenders of vulnerabilities within communications and computer networks seems to contradict a basic cryptologic principle. Third Department resources dedicated toward high performance computing – the best in China – and its large arsenal of competent linguists could constitute China‘s cryptologic A-Team.

One possibility is that a capable yet overt B Team operates independently at the MR or Military District level. However, given its oversight of the cybersphere in China, alongside domestic law enforcement, Third Department authorities, at a minimum, are likely aware of CNE activities directed against foreign targets from Chinese soil. Regardless, if the B Team in China has been the main source of cyber surveillance, one should wonder what a GSD Third Department A Team could achieve when operating in a clandestine fashion.


As a final note, the linkage between psychological warfare and CNO indicates a broader perspective than that adopted in the United States. Rather than a narrow technical concern over hostile computer network attacks, Chinese authorities may also seek to counter the introduction of ideas and concepts deemed harmful to the CCP‘s monopoly on state power. A priority of CNE operations may be identification of friends and foes in Washington [and in Australia?] through social network analysis.

Unsubstantiated rumors regarding the transfer of Third Department Director Wu Guohua for his inability to control CNE operations are interesting. If true, it appears that senior civilian leaders could have some understanding of the political damage caused by overt, hostile network penetration. The PRC government has legitimate information security concerns. However, aggressive and overt cyber surveillance directed against foreign targets does little to engender sympathy. The inability of the GSD Third Department to control intrusive cyber activities directed against foreign entities may indicate a profound weakness in the governance of China‘s sprawling cyber-infrastructure."
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Pete

July 13, 2012

Anzac Day Songs and Photos 2012


























Anzacs (or 'diggers') at Gallipoli in a rare quiet moment.

Australia and New Zealand commemorate ANZAC Day on the 25th of April each year to honour the memory of troops of the combined Australian and New Zealand Army Corps (ANZAC) in World War One. It also remembers Aussies and Kiwis who fought, were wounded and often died in World War Two, Korea, Vietnam and now Afghanistan.



 The hymn Abide With Me is traditionally sung at ANZAC Day services. The singer is Hayley Westernra from Christchurch, New Zealand.






Iconic Vietnam War photo by Michael Coleridge. Diggers of 5 Platoon, B Company, 7RAR, waiting for Iroquois helicopters to land and take them back to Nui Dat at the end of Operation Ulmarra.


 I Was Only 19 (by that under-appreciated Australian group Redgum) is in memory of Australians who fought, died and were injured in Vietnam (early 1960s to 1972).

This great song And the Band Played Waltzing Matilda by Eric Bogle is about the life of a digger wounded at Gallipoli.





I think Eric Bogle’s The Green Fields of France or No Man’s Land (above) is the best anti-war song ever written. As a haunting poem, march, song of love and injustice it is a fitting anthem to remember the men and women, living and dead, who are our Anzacs.





In Flanders fields the poppies blow
Between the crosses, row on row,
That mark our place; and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly
Scarce heard amid the guns below.
We are the Dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved, and were loved, and now we lie
In Flanders Fields.


(In Flanders Fields by John McCrae).

For many more songs of remembrance this is the "Rembrance Day Songs 2018" post on this website.

Pete