April 16, 2008

Japan's Potential ICBMs & Hoarding More Plutonium


The Japanese M5 rocket on launch. Capable of being modified into an ICBM
From Australia Fairfax news stable comes this article in April 26, 2008:

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"Between the Pacific Ocean coastline and the rich farmland of Rokkasho, in northern Japan, stands a vast and controversial monument to man's triumph over nature.
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The 12.7 trillion yen Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant, which can recycle up to 800 tonnes of nuclear waste a year for reuse, will launch the pacifist nation into a new era of nuclear power when it commences operations in July.
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Trade Minister Akira Amari has hailed it as "the future" of sustainable energy for Japan, which has virtually no natural resources and takes a third of its energy from 55 nuclear power plants.
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...Unlike Japan's conventional nuclear power plants, the Rokkasho complex will not burn nuclear fuel. Instead, it will recycle it by taking spent fuel from conventional plants and separating out usable elements such as uranium and plutonium from waste. Japan Nuclear Fuel aims to produce as many as four tonnes of recycled plutonium - roughly equal to 500 of the bombs dropped on Nagasaki - for reuse each year.
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Protestors say that because Japan, which has a "no surplus plutonium" policy, has yet to repatriate and use 37 tonnes of plutonium that it sent for recycling at European plants in the 1990s, the facility at Rokkasho is at best a spectacular waste of money and at worst a dubious exercise in building plutonium supplies. As it is, the mechanism needed to convert the plutonium into reusable pellet form will not be ready until 2012."
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Comments
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Japan's nuclear capabilities are a future concern for Australia and Japan having access to greater amounts of plutonium are a more immediate worry.
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Japan already has a quick nuclear "breakout" capacity in the form of more than 7 tonnes of Plutonium (the nuclear explosive of choice). Japan also has the capability to build ICBM from the existing M5 rocket.
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Japan's currently pacifist constitution has not stopped it from building one of the strongest navies and airforces in the region. The Japanese also suffers the potential threat of North Korea which may eventually a short IRBM flight away. US protection may not be forever so Japan is quietly leaving its own nuclear weapon options open. This may be one reason Japan appears to be willing to wear the environmental risks of operating the Rokkasho plant.
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Pete

April 11, 2007

Saudi Ballistic Missiles - Modernisation of Missile Force?


The Saudis may still have around 50 of these China provided
 
CSS-2 (aka DF-3A) IRBMs, designed for nuclear warheads.
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The current political instability in Pakistan and regional tension over Iran's nuclear aspirations suggests its time to look at the shadows that the media and Government policy-makers ignore.

In 1987-88 Saudi Arabia secretly
purchased 40 to 60 long-range CSS-2 (aka DF-3A) ballistic missiles from China. CSS-2s where specifically designed by China to carry nuclear warheads (ranging up to 3 megatons) but China removed the warheads from those missiles sold to Saudi Arabia.

The missiles have a range of around 3,000km and a payload up to 2,150 kg. The missiles where deployed in 1990 at two Saudi Arabian military bases, al-Sulayyil and al-Karj (al-Jafr), 500km and 100km south of Riyadh, respectively. Each site is
reported to include four to six concrete launch pads.

When sold to the Saudis the missiles were believed to have an accuracy of only 1km Circular Error of Probability (
CEP). Because the CSS-2 missiles still may not be accurate enough to be used effectively against point targets with conventional munitions, analysts speculate that Saudi Arabia may have envisaged (or still intends) to have nuclear warheads for the missiles.

PETE COMMENT

Why haven’t we heard that the Saudis bought or possess around 50 Chinese made ballistic missiles? Perhaps just as the US ignored Saudi nationals, with possible al Qaeda associations, entering the US before 9/11 the US may have decided to ignore these missiles when deployed in 1990 because they are "safely Saudi". Maybe its assumed the Saudis can never bite American interests.

LATER MACHINATIONS

China has reportedly approached the Saudis with offers to sell much more modern and accurate 600-km range CSS-6 and 1800-km range DF-21 (CSS-5) solid-fueled missiles. In 2013 I wrote futher about Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and Saudi tied aid. 

Meanwhile Saudi Arabia is 
examining the prospect of raising the level of its strategic relations with nuclear armed Pakistan. The Saudis have accelerated talks with Islamabad for the purchase of Pakistani weapons as well as joint military and strategic projects. Riyadh may be seeking to exploit Pakistan's expertise in missiles and nuclear weapons.