US Election Polls & Predictions 20 Oct: Trump to Win?

Who wins the November 5th US Presidential Election has a major impact on Australian foreign and defence policies (including AUKUS) and on US trade policies. 

Kamala Harris’s lead over Trump has declined from 2.7% on October 15th to 1.4% ten days later. That is less than the standard statistical survey error of 4%.

Hence no candidate is clearly or statistically ahead.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Harris_and_Trump

538 Electoral College votes are up for grabs, So Harris or Trump need 270 votes to win. On 25 October Harris has 226 fairly sure votes; Trump has 219 fairly sure votes. Swing state votes are 93. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Electoral_College_forecasts

Almost all 43 of the 50 US states vote for the same parties election after election. So it is up to the 7 swing states to decide the Election. Trump leads in all swing states according to the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI)  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index 

expressed at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Electoral_College_forecasts

But the PVI may be inaccurate.

Swing states are Pennsylvania 19 votes; North Carolina 16 ; Georgia 16; Michigan 15 ; Arizona 11; Wisconsin 10; and Nevada 6 votes totalling the 93 swing state votes. 

Given the tiny margins above between Harris and Trump, by most measures, the wide margins, published by betting agencies seem extraordinary. Perhaps the wide margins are based on PVI methodology. On 21 Oct Sportsbet tips Trump to win 1.61 (Harris 2.25) https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/us-politics/2024-us-presidential-election-winning-party-5621990

TAB reinforces Sportsbet figures with Trump to win 1.60 (Harris 2.35) https://www.tab.com.au/sports/betting/Politics/competitions/US%20Election

Conclusion

Apart from relying on the PVI the numbers are so close it is unlikely the election will have a clear Presidential winner on 5 November. 

More likely is several days of postal vote counting in the swing state of Nevada (a swing state permitting postal votes) and then a few days of recounting in all 7 swing states will arrive at the winner.