Hi Shawn at 10/11/2024 6:26 PM
It is interesting that this October 8, 2024 South Korean (SK) article https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20241008003451315 about a North Korean (NK) nuclear sub program doesn't make mention of the alleged
(likely top heavy) September 2023 SSB.
See my
September 10, 2023 article at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2023/09/nks-new-ssb-missile-firing-via-test.html
Both NK subs are very similar. Or maybe they are one and the same?!
Impoverished NK devotes so much attention and money to its
nuclear triad, that the possibility of a relatively quickly constructed NK SSBN, with
Russian help, should be treated seriously.
Perhaps Russia is helping NK build a nuclear sub as barter for all the
ammunition NK is donating to Russia's Ukrainian war stocks.
Against this I have a feeling China would be nervous about unpredictable NK not only having thermonuclear weapons
[1] but having the most effective platform of a nuclear triad, an SSBN, to launch such
weapons.
The possibility of an NK SSBN in the medium term could be used by SK as political ammunition to persuade the US to permit SK to have its own nuclear propulsion capability. [2] Nuclear weapons for SK would be another matter.
This is perhaps why SK's Parliamentary Rep. Kang Dae-sik of the ruling People Power Party was permitted to speak on the record about such a sensitive nuclear topic on October 8, 2024 at https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20241008003451315
[1] See
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#2017
"On
September 3, 2017, North Korea claimed to have successfully tested a
thermonuclear bomb, also known as a hydrogen bomb. Corresponding seismic
activity similar to an earthquake of magnitude 6.3 was reported by the [US
Geological Service] USGS, making the blast around 10 times more powerful than
previous detonations by the country. Later the bomb yield was estimated to
be 250 kilotons, based on further study of the seismic data. The test was
reported to be "a perfect success" by North Korean authorities."
[2] See “LEU More Acceptable for South Korean Nuclear Submarines” of October 14,
2020 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2020/10/leu-more-acceptable-for-south-korean.html
6 comments:
Hi Pete,
There are now reports of North Korean soldiers in occupied Ukraine, which could be signs of a Putin-Kim deal: as payment for Russian nuclear tech and components, like a naval reactor.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/east-asia/north-korean-soldiers-highly-likely-killed-ukraine-seoul-4665101
My greatest fear over this is that any troop number less than an organised army division wouldn’t do much to influence the situation, but NK soldiers in mass human waves will overwhelm Ukraine defences.
Hi Shawn
As Africans in Mozambique and Angola found with Russian military advisers in the 1970s border skirmishes with South Africa (SA), SA dominated Namibia and perhaps against Rhodesia - Russians are pretty racist.
Russian civilians and Russian troops in the Ukraine War may not take kindly to NK soldiers.
However Russians might welcome small groups of NK officers along with (SK claims) "thousands of [NK] containers of weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine." https://www.channelnewsasia.com/east-asia/north-korean-soldiers-highly-likely-killed-ukraine-seoul-4665101
The above might be seen as a good propaganda Coalition of the Willing for Russia gesture. This might boost Russian morale. Russia would be cash strapped for foreign exchange money. So Barter in terms of Russian technology transfer (eg. nuc sub reactors) and how to integrate them into NK subs, might be occurring.
As a precedent I don't think NK could have developed thermonuclear weapons by 2017 without Russian assistance. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#2017
Regards Pete
Pete,
Russian scammers have taken advantage of the propaganda fed to countries like India, Nepal and others to scam volunteers by promising better pay (when they actually get scammed of their pay, so they are basically slave soldiers) https://youtu.be/w_JO4DDu9bQ?si=Yq6-nMN8IflhFkcL
Of course, Russian racism backfires all the time https://youtu.be/6s4m1j2ALkg?si=x4lyPLkAjoQC2m0g
The Russian people really don't care, as its someone else dying for Putin. In fact, the whole rational for this conflict stems from Vlad playing up Russian institutional racism against races they see as below them, like denying Ukraine culture and language - to the point where killing them becomes a civic duty.
Hi Shawn at 10/15/2024 2:42 AM
Yes Russia has systematically kept the Ukrainian people under its boot heel for centuries..
The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine was less deadly than Russia's intentional "Holodomor" famine against Ukrainians from 1932 to 1933 that killed millions of Ukrainians.
A middle position...is that the initial causes of the famine were an unintentional result of collectivization but once famine
set in, starvation was selectively weaponized against Ukrainians as a means to punish Ukrainians for resisting Soviet policies and to suppress Ukrainian nationalist sentiments.
More see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor .
Hi again Shawn at 10/15/2024 2:42 AM
A more recent BBC report is "N Korea sends troops to fight with Russia...." of October 18/19, 2024 at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3vkqwe9wwdo
"North Korea has started sending troops to fight with Russia in Ukraine, South Korea's spy agency has said as Seoul warned of a "grave security threat".
The allegation comes a day after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he believed 10,000 North Korean soldiers could join the war, based on intelligence information.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol called for a security meeting on Friday and said the international community must respond with "all available means".
According to the spy agency, 1,500 troops have already arrived in Russia - with anonymous sources telling South Korean media the final figure could be closer to 12,000.
This comes as evidence mounts that North Korea is supplying Russia with ammunition, as recently demonstrated by the recovery of a missile in Ukraine’s Poltava region.
Moscow and Pyongyang have also been deepening their cooperation in recent months. Last week, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un greeted Russian President Vladimir Putin on his birthday, calling him his "closest comrade".
Friday's security meeting was attended by key officials from South Korea's National Security Office, the Ministry of National Defence, and the National Intelligence Service, Yoon's office said.
"[The participants] decided not to ignore the situation and to jointly respond to it with the international community using all available means," it said.
The allegation from [SK's] National Intelligence Service (NIS) comes days after Ukrainian military intelligence sources said that Russia's army is forming a unit of North Koreans...."
Hi Pete,
Yes, another minute closer to nuclear midnight.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/east-asia/north-korean-troops-russia-readying-combat-ukraine-war-south-korea-says-4688976
There are already videos on telegram of Russians breaking Opsec to show clips of NK troops - you can tell just by their height, they are 8cm shorter than South Koreans due to the difference in nutrition. The Russians are calling them the Buryat Battalion - Lol, there are around a million Buryuts in the world.
As I mentioned, my greatest fear is an organised NK Mech Division with it's own armour & C&C, we can hope the Russians give them T-62s and BTRs and throw them into Donestk, where Ukraine will have zero qalms dropping Himars on them.
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