I publish on subs, other naval, nuclear weapons & broad political issues. Aussie sub changes are slow: talk rather than actual new subs. The 1st Collins LOTE (ending 2029) may mainly concern the US Combat System. Trump may decide to cancel the AUKUS Virginia offer due to USN advice it needs all operational SSNs through to the 2040s. My colleagues Shawn C, Gessler & Ghalib Kabir are welcome to publish while I grieve a death in the family. Pete.
There has been an unusual Iran-Pakistan exchange of fire within the last 24 hours https://quwa.org/2024/01/17/iranian-missiles-strike-pakistani-soil/ .
I wonder if Saudi Arabia (a strategic ally of Pak) and the US (close but complex relations with Pak) have encouraged Pak to put pressure on Iran?
This would divert some Iranian
attention and forces away from Iran's multifaceted proxy conflict with Israel.
10 comments:
Things are getting ominous:
"In a speech delivered on January 15, British Secretary of State for Defence
Grant Shapps argued that the world has entered a "pre-war" era where
adversaries like Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran pose an unparalleled
threat. Shapps stated, "During the Cold War, there was a sense that we
were dealing with rational actors, but these new powers are far more
unpredictable and irrational.""
""We find ourselves at the dawn of a new era. The Berlin Wall is now a
distant memory, and we've come full circle, transitioning from a post-war
to a pre-war world. An age of idealism has given way to a period of
pragmatic realism," Shapps remarked."
Source:
https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_january_2024_global_security_army_industry/british_minister_of_defence_warns_worldwide_pre-war_era_has_begun.html
Hi Pete,
Actually reckon it's the CCP who are instructing the Iranians and Pakistanis too cool down, not the Saudis.
Also I reckon we are now 30 seconds to midnight... https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/
I share the concerns of other posters on the heightened risk of major war the world faces now.
Russia is more of the same. Russia may be less powerful now than the former Soviet Union was. Yet structurally, Putin has greater power over Russia than Gorbachev or Brezhnev had over the Soviet Union. Many Soviet era structures that balanced power like the Central Committee are gone. There are fewer constraints over Putin’s control of the Russian military than there were in the Cold War. (Kevin Rudd makes the same point in his book about the lack of “guard rails” for managing US-China disputes today compared to mechanisms for managing USA-USSR disputes in the cold war).
Comparing the FSB to the KGB, there are more internal secret police per capita in Russia now than there were in Soviet days. The Soviet Union for all its flaws had a governing ideology that guided its actions. Russia today is only governed by the self interest of the powerful. Bill Browder makes this point well in his book about Putin and the oligarchs.
It is no exaggeration to say that Putin and Xi wield the most military power of any Russian or Chinese leaders since Stalin and Mao.
In such situations wars can start without deliberate intention in a political atmosphere where nobody will back down. History is full of examples of miscalculation or the actions of over-heated young men leading to war. Easy to start but hard to stop.
As the region becomes more violent, countries in the area arm-up:
"Iraq has reportedly now finalised a US$3.2Bn contract with Dassault
Aviation to purchase 14 Rafale aircraft, with a down payment of
US$240m. The Iraqi government has proposed paying for the new aircraft
in oil supplies rather than currency.
Though reported as a replacement for the F-16, the relatively small
Rafale purchase may be intended to augment the F-16s, perhaps in order
to provide enhanced air defence capabilities with the Rafale’s MBDA
Meteor armament, or perhaps to provide a heavier and longer-range
air-to-ground punch.
It is by no means a given that Iraq would be allowed to purchase the
Meteor, which has been withheld from Egypt as a result of pressure
from Israel.
Since 2021 there have been a rumour that Iraq has been negotiating for
the supply of 12 block three and the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex
(PAC) JF-17 Thunder aircraft from Pakistan, at a reported cost of
US$664 million."
Source:
https://www.timesaerospace.aero/features/defence/iraq-set-to-invest-in-modernised-fighter-force
Hi Anonymous at 1/19/2024 3:06 PM
I suspect Shapps is on the Schnapps.
What he's describing is multi-polar complexity - more complex than the bipolar proxy wars. Who can forget Yuri Andropov's declining health which almost led to world disaster day? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Able_Archer_83#Operation_RYAN
One thing Shapps seems to neglect is the strong chance that Israel may see October 7 as a tension raising excuse to heavily bomb Iranian nuclear facilities (deep under Tehran and in Natanz etc).
Regards Pete
Hi Shawn C at 1/19/2024 7:32 PM
Yes could be China is encouraging the Iranians and Pakistanis to cool it. But what I suspected was the Saudis encouraging its strategic ally Pakistan to trade shots with Iran.
The purpose being distracting Iran from its proxy campaigning (via Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis) against the Saudi's undeclared ally Israel. Also on any "good day" the Sunni-power Saudi's are in a zero sum struggle against the Shiite-power Iran for Persian Gulf dominance.
Cheers Pete
Hi Anonymous at 1/20/2024 3:01 PM
Yes Putin has greater power over Russia than the post Stalin communist leaders - in decline with Brezhnev and further with Gorbachev (the latter seen as a star by we Westerners but considered a sell-out, who destroyed USSR unity on his watch, by Russians).
True. Putin can't blame a Central Committee for his gambles. But if Trump returns Putin's personal powers of persuasion over Trump may end the war in Ukraine. I suspect Trump would declare a (Putin drafted) "peace" Treaty very much in Russia's favour. The international economy - freed of sanctions, can then get back to stability and money-making.
Xi's China is perhaps more difficult, wanting Taiwan, but not wanting to ruin its peoples' economy, even in a limited conventional war against a nuclear supreme US. Trump, the transactional trader is unpredictable on Taiwan.
Yes, strangely the KGB considered itself (and was) a moral guardian of Soviet society. Putin when direct head of FSB (and now) must be giving FSB and the other agencies, confusing signals on what they're meant to guard in Russia.
I think Putin's Russia may fear economically dominant China on its border. Also Russia, after its struggles against the Ukrainian "pushover", no longer feels confident it has conventional military superiority over China. The Chinese military still needs a medium sized war to gain experience, though. A bigger border war with India perhaps?
Yep, old men, believing they have wisdom, ordering "over-heated young men" who see military career advancement, only available from having "a good war", can usher in a World War, unexpected.
Regards Pete
Hi Anonymous at 1/22/2024 8:58 AM
I don't think the US military-industrial-governmental complex would be at all happy about Iraq buying 14 FRENCH Rafales or CHINESE-PAKISTANI JF-17 Thunders.
Surely the US will make a counter-offer with another batch of F-16s at "half" the price of Rafales!?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Dynamics_F-16_Fighting_Falcon_operators#Iraq
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Air_Force#Current_inventory
Unless the US thought France winning the small Iraqi order was the price that must be paid to head off an Iraqi purchase of Chinese designed "Pakistani" JF-17 Thunders?
Regards Pete
Russia's difficulties in conventional warfare may
push it in a darker direction:
"The war in Ukraine has dented Russia's confidence in its
conventional forces and increased the importance to Moscow of
non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNWs) as a means of deterring
and defeating NATO in a potential future conflict, a leading
Western think-tank said on Monday."
"Monday's report by the International Institute for Strategic
Studies (IISS) raised the question of whether Russia might be
emboldened to fire a NSNW in the belief that the West lacks
the resolve to deliver a nuclear response.
"The Russian perception of the lack of credible Western will
to use nuclear weapons or to accept casualties in conflict
further reinforces Russia's aggressive NSNW thought and
doctrine," it said."
See:
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-01-22/ukraine-war-drives-shift-in-russian-nuclear-thinking-study
Thanks Anonymous at 1/23/2024 7:49 AM
This Russian debate/publicity campaign looks like a return to the Limited Nuclear War Debate, without agreed "rules" and which runs the risk of escalation to ever larger nuclear weapons.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_warfare#Types_of_nuclear_warfare
Could Russia, China or North Korea rely on a President Trump to be a cool, predictable, rational actor in such a war?
Regards Pete
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