In an unconfirmed matter only 1 or 2 of Indonesia's submarines may be active.
One is the 40 year old KRI Cakra recently overhauled. KRI Cakra is the sister ship of the tragically sunken KRI Nanggala in April 2021.
Indonesia now has 3 Batch I Nagapasa-class "Chang Bogo" Type 209 variants recieved from South Korea's DSME and Indonesia's PT PAL. These were commissioned into the Indonesia Navy in 2017, 2018 and 2021.
But here things get more complicated.
Anonymous sources claim:
- 2 Batch I Nagapasas are not active due to sonar problems
or
- all 3 Batch I Nagapasas are not active due to speed, depth and inability to launch torpedo problems.
Allegedly TKMS was unhappy with DSME modifying original Type 209/1200s into Type 209/1400 Nagapasas without DSME receiving TKMS re-export licences. So TKMS allegedly withheld the usual technical support that would have resolved the technical problems.
See the video here and below. It is dated July 9, 2022 and has English subtitles. It features former South Korean "Navy Captain and Submarine Expert Moon Geun-sick". He makes strong criticisms of Indonesia and France. He may be reducing Batch I Nagapasa licencing blame on South Korea, which also impacts the future Batch II Nagapasas, by also adding words seen below the video which are:
"Indonesia continues to delay the signed contract for three [Batch II Nagapasas ordered April 12, 2019] citing vague list of issues with the submarine. This is a unique Indonesian behavior which violates international commerce etiquette. CAPT Moon attributes primary cause of the controversy to Indonesian Navy's lack of preventative maintenance, poor safety culture, and lack of budget, which have resulted in low operational readiness across the force and even a tragic accident."
Again this is an unconfirmed matter.
Today, looking at the Indonesian Wikipedia entries for the "Status" of each submarine of the Batch I Nagapasa-class:
- KRI Nagapasa's Status was "Aktif" ie. active
but for
- KRI Ardadedali no Status listed
and
- Kri Alugoro no Status listed.
15 comments:
Hi Pete
One thing is at least clear, the deal is dead and beyond repair (Korean (arrogant?) public Indonesian bashing. Daewoo and SK unlikely to be active in Indonesia..soon
It is surprising that the sub problems for the last couples of years are only sonar related and due "to european suppliers".3 or 4 western suppliers could (and have done it already)provide a state of the art sonar suite for what is essentially a 209.. (German , French , Norwegian,Turks and so on..) After all Daewoo is not a "nobody"!
I think we are witnessing the novel episode of the Naval /TKMS
This could have implications for the unhappy single vendor situation the Indian Navy finds itself in with regards to Daewoo DSME offering the 3000 ton VLS equipped SSKs.
If as in indicated
The Indonesian Navy's woes are no different from the Thai Navy's or Indian Navy's as far as acquisitions go. I assume TKMS have not been not happy about Daewoo exporting the 209 derivatives for a while now. I wonder if Daewoo/South Korea are that helpless as far as Torpedoes or sonar suites go.....They have enough system integration experience.
The long term big picture is quite clear if the US-AU-IN-JP quad plus UK, France, Germany, Scandinavian states etc. are serious about having 'joint naval teeth' to match the PLAN.
SSKs, SSNs, ULUUVs, etc. need to be supplied keeping in mind a balanced allocation of resources and how PLAN resources are likely to be used. Unless 'teeth' are shown clearly, the PLAN will simply ignore everyone and pick off one country after another literally/figuratively. Ofcourse, India also needs to quicken the timeline of its 100 VLS Next Gen Destroyer as the PLAN explodes in quality and quantity terms....
PS: It is infuriating to see all the political drongos in the US choose the worst possible time to play the 'suicidal bunglers' episode for all to see. Soon even the Buddha and Gandhi might be angered enough to cane their wretched derrières.
Hi Anonymous and Gualib Kabir
Its certainly unusual how commercial warfare between the South Korean and French potential suppliers of subs to Indonesia has become so public and vicious.
Germany's TKMS and the Indonesia's MoD and Navy no doubt dislike how they've been dragged into this affair.
This can mainly benefit the autocratic great-superpowers:
- Russia which may end up supplying its Kilos or single-hulled (without AIP but promised) Amur-class* not only to INDONESIA but INDIA.
If these Russian subs can sport supersonic BrahMos/Yakhont on top of formidable Klub/Kalibr missiles then that will raise the potency of Putin's ,umm, power projection.
and
- China as Ghalib points out. China, that can now exploit every alliance-political division and delays in submarine/missile being delivered between Western and non-aligned countries
China's military industrial sector just keeps on keeping on, like a pink/red Duracell Bunny **
Also Biden's mainly Ukraine transfixed leadership may be significantly weakened for the Indo-Pacific after Nov 8, 2022 *** when/if the Republicans enjoy Congressional majorities in both Houses.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amur-class_submarine
** China's Bunny vs the Western Gorilla :) https://youtu.be/6gDCAEyLABo
*** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_elections
Regards Pete
Does Germany's TKMS have a problem with South Korean 209 derivatives? Any idea of the type of licensing agreement for South Korean Type 209s?
Hi Pete
Re your msg at 01 39
As far as Indonesia is concerned it it unlikely that the Russian could become again a supplier
Well before Ukraine and the Aukus turn around the French were displacing Russia..
Transport A400 M (2), Helo H225 (14, interestingly not the multinational NH) ,Caesar howitzers (55),Rafale fighter (42 but 6 ordered so far)..MOU for subs..
The main problem for Indonesia is to afford these orders, the renewed gas discovery might help.
They feel threatened by China with a long historical ,quasi ethnic ,antagonism
Thanks Pete. What a financial mess that doesn’t help anyone except Russia and China.
Doesn’t Indonesia also have a territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea? I understand the “nine dashed line” goes over Indonesian claimed territory in the Natuna Islands. If China’s base claiming strategy extends further south they will come into direct conflict. I think the Indonesian government has only played this down to avoid a repeat of past internal racial tensions with the Chinese community within Indonesia.
I find it hard to see them going with Russian or Chinese supply now.
https://twitter.com/CollinSLKoh/status/1528207857996312576
Seems like the Korean derived vessels still uses German OS and integrations.
Hi Anonymous [at Jul 13, 2022, 2:39:00 PM]
Good question.
Please research it then get back to the Mafumafu at SNAFU on this.
Cheers Pete
Hi Anonymous [at Jul 13, 2022, 5:59:00 PM]
You could be right.
Looking at article "Indonesia buying 42 Rafales, 36 F-15s and Maybe 2 Scorpenes" of February 11, 2022 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2022/02/indonesia-buying-42-rafales-maybe-2.html and the reader Comments below it indicate Indonesia cancelled its plans to buy 11 additional Russian Sukhois. Also no Kilo buying plans have reached fruition.
Russia's Ukraine aggression also makes arms purchases from Russia unlikely except by China and, of course, India.
I don't know if AUKUS would have any bearing on the French-Indonesia arms trade.
Yes your A400M comments seems correct https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A400M_Atlas#Exports
Info on Indonesian French MOU for 2 Scorpenes is here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scorp%C3%A8ne-class_submarine#Indonesia Although if France added, as yet not fully proven 2nd Generation AIP, I'm sure Indonesia might have to pay for the final, at sea, development stage.
On Indonesian hydrocarbon reserves. I thought Indonesia exported alot of oil, till I saw https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_exports#Countries_by_rank which suggests oil reserves are almost used up.
Better news on Indonesian gas exports https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_exports and possible reserves.
Yes, while past sectarian violence against minority Indonesian Chinese has historically gone unpunished China may now "punish" more modern outbreaks.
Hi Anonymous [Jul 14, 2022, 8:59:00 AM]
Yes true that:
"Indonesia also have a territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea? I understand the “nine dashed line” goes over Indonesian claimed territory in the Natuna Islands. If China’s base claiming strategy extends further south they will come into direct conflict. I think the Indonesian government has only played this down to avoid a repeat of past internal racial tensions with the Chinese community within Indonesia."
Unfortunately for Indonesia it is much geographically closer than Australia to the aggression of China.
Unlike Australia Indonesia has far less naval or air forces to fight China. And as a non-aligned country Indonesia does not have Australia's "Big Brother" the USA to help defend it against China.
I was only talking about RUSSAIN armes supplies to Indonesia. I'm unaware of any past, present or future CHINESE arms supplies to Indonesia.
Regards Pete
Hi Abao [at Jul 14, 2022, 11:10:00 AM]
Yes https://twitter.com/CollinSLKoh/status/1528207857996312576 presents a good photo of the command center on KRI Ardadedali (404).
I'm not up on TKMS combat systems so can't comment on your "Seems like the Korean derived vessels still uses German OS and integrations."
Very usefully https://twitter.com/CollinSLKoh/status/1528207857996312576 allows the reader to click on an excellent Indonesian Navy website at https://www.tnial.mil.id/berita/46319/SATSEL-KOARMADA-II-LAKSANAKAN-KEGIATAN-BINOPSLAT-BAGI-PRAJURIT-KRI-ARDADEDALI-404/
I need to improve my Indonesian linguistic skills so reading https://www.tnial.mil.id/ is a good way to do it.
Cheers Pete
Hi Abao and Pete,
I don't think Korea is that reliant on German supplies for the Jang Bogo 209 derivative.
From What I see, local capabilities by Hanhwa and GoldStar seem to cover combat suites, sonar, torpedoes etc. with some sonar supplies coming from French Thales... pretty comprehensive Korean capability if I may add...not so reliant on Germany afterall...
https://www.hanwhasystems.com/en/business/defense/naval/combat_index.do#
https://www.lignex1.com/web/eng/product/product.do?category=02&part=03&model=04#categoryMenu
Hence I think the claims that Indonesia was unable to fire Torpedoes' in the 209 due to TKMS being unhappy with Daewoo's refits seems incorrect.
Hi Ghalib Kabir [at Jul 14, 2022, 2:51:00 PM]
Yes the bigger the sums being wagered, in always pricey submarine corporate warfare, the greater the spin doctoring at the expense of truth.
Agreed, after 29 years of South Korea morphing 209s into highly developed Jang Bogo variants and modernising German built Cakras https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cakra-class_submarine#Modernization - this would suggest S Korea is capable of resolving combat system/weapon and other problems.
An informational problem is the Indonesian Navy admitting 2 of its Nagapasas are inactive, active or some phase in between.
The Nagapasas are only a few years old so wouldn't be undertaking their 2 years of deep maintenance for 5 years or so. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jang_Bogo-class_submarine#Boats_in_class
All very curious.
Pete
Picture on https://twitter.com/CollinSLKoh/status/1528207857996312576 shows a Kongsberg combat system, whereas German exports have Atlas Elektronik.
Thanks Anonymous [at Jul 17, 2022, 1:08:00 AM]
Kongsberg being a large Norwegian company, doing combat system integration for several submarine companies/countries.
See https://www.kongsberg.com/kda/what-we-do/defence-and-security/naval-systems/combat-system-integration/
Cheers Pete
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