In response to
GhalibKabir's fine comments, of December 9, 2020, on nuclear
weapons proliferation to-from China, I add further comments below:
Finding US Overt
sources is quite easy. Finding non-US sources is more difficult.
---
SOURCE 1
Mainly https://www.nti.org/learn/countries/china/nuclear/
“China was
embroiled in nuclear proliferation scandals throughout the late 1980's and
early 1990's, particularly with respect to its sale of RING MAGNETS to
Pakistan in 1995. [38]
[Wikipedia - "A subsidiary of
the China National Nuclear Corporation contributed
in Pakistan's efforts to expand its uranium enrichment
capabilities by providing 5,000 custom made ring magnets, which are
a key component of the bearings that facilitate the high-speed rotation
of centrifuges. China has also provided technical and material
support in the completion of the Chashma Nuclear Power Complex and plutonium
reprocessing facility, which was built in the mid-1990s.[50]"
]
[Missile Threat In November 1992,
China sold 34 M-11 [aka. DF-11] missiles to Pakistan. Satellite
images showed missile canisters were delivered at Sargodha air base near Lahore.13 The Chinese government
initially denied these allegations, accusing U.S. intelligence agencies of
fabricating evidence of the transfer. The United States reimposed limited
sanctions in response.14 After Beijing
provided a more explicit commitment to adhere to the MTCR guidelines and to
stop exporting missiles, the Clinton Administration lifted the sanctions in
1994.15 Although China
pledged not to transfer missiles to Pakistan, it reportedly continued to assist
Pakistan in developing its own indigenous missile capability.16 In 1992, China
attempted to sell to Iran 500 DF-11 missiles. However, the deal was
terminated due to U.S. pressure.17 A reported 30-50
DF-11 missiles may have been sold to Iran in 1995, although this remains
unconfirmed.18 ]
China provided
Pakistan with a nuclear bomb DESIGN (used
in China's October 1966 nuclear test).
[That test was CHIC 4, October
27, 1966, Warhead 548, 12kt test yield]
These designs were
later passed to Libya by the A.Q. Khan network, and discovered
by IAEA inspectors in 2004 after then [Libyan] President...Qadhafi [who
very foolishly - look what subsequently happened to him and his country!] renounced
his nuclear weapons program and allowed inspectors to examine related
facilities [in Libya]. The plans contained portions of Chinese text with
explicit instructions for the manufacture of an implosion device. [39]”
---
SOURCE 2
Mainly https://www.atomicheritage.org/history/chinese-nuclear-program
Concentrates (at length worth a SubMatts'
article in itself) on help to China from a US traitor,
perhaps semi-official 1940-60s far left Curie cluster? French
helpers and (no doubt permitted by the Soviets) the brainy but
malleable, Klaus Fuchs (using his stolen from UK/US knowledge
and expertise)
Source 2 goes onto
help FROM China
"...during the
1990s. On one visit, he was told that the CHIC-4 (see
above) the bomb used in China’s fourth nuclear test—was
designed simply enough so that “anybody could build [it]” (Reed and Stillman
231).
Chinese scientists
passed the CHIC-4 bomb technology to Pakistan, and allegedly conducted a nuclear test for Pakistan at Lop Nur on May 26, 1990.
Additionally, China sold intermediate range ballistic missiles (IRBMs)
albeit without nuclear warheads to Saudi Arabia, sold
missile components to Iraq [can't find details], and trained
Libyan nuclear experts in Beijing [maybe not much evidence?]. China has also
tolerated the North Korean nuclear weapons program; after Pyongyang’s first
test in 2006, China’s ambassador to the UN affirmed that “China does not
approve of inspecting cargo to and from the D.P.R.K.” (328)."
[China - North Korea relations is an ongoing story. With China thinking even a nuclear armed North Korean Buffer Zone (between China and US-SK forces) is better than no buffer zone at all.]
17 comments:
The 2007 Saudi missile deal was helpfully midwifed by the CIA as long as it was hard wired to a conventional war head only. Not to mention the atrocity of GWB railroading chinese NSG membership in 2004 (more outrageous than making an arsonist the chief fierie in charge of fighting the wild fire he helped set in the first place, besides making him a life member of the fire fighting board, or worse, making the local KKK grand wizard the state race relations commissioner)
China has gone around like the nuclear version of santa claus and managed the 'Missiles R Us' store while partnering with pakistan to run the 'AQ Khan nuclear walmart' (URENCO designs made their way to china duly). it is insulting to basic common sense to presume the pakistanis had the wherewithal to go N-capable single handedly...I think even AQ Khan, who is about as coy as a famished dingo in front of a giant sirloin, would have blushed at the gasconade handing him all the credit single handedly.
Hi GhalibKabir
@ December 14, 2020 at 8:16 PM
I think Chinese ingenuity could re-wire the missiles it sold to the Saudis back to conventional-Nuclear dual-use. These are the Saudi CSS-2s and later the CSS-5 (Tehran Busters) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_relations#Military_relations
China’s motivations for proliferating nuclear weapons and missiles to Pakistan may be:
- China wanted to semi-surround India with nuclear threats on 2 sides.
- making Pakistan an ally permits Chinese power projection through to countries further west and to the Arabian Sea (with the prospect of ports) and
- Money! Pakistan has a strong dependence on China to provide conventional weapons (eg. the 8 x S20 future submarines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_039A_submarine#Export ) This comes with none of the US-style time-consuming, intrusive, public political hurdles.
Hooray for Biden :) Do you think future VP Kamala Harris will seek to build a special relationship with India?
Pete
kamala harris is no friend of India and democrats in general are more of pontificating nitwits.
https://www.ft.com/content/668fd013-7033-4fbc-9330-e0c2bcf31638
Kamala and Biden will try to not ask too many questions though I suspect rose tinted views of India's fluffy bunny 'persecuted minority' in washington such as her fellow californian Rep. jayapal will be a hindrance. these 'pseudoliberal cabal' will be a major nuisance.
(odd how they cannot explain why 'oppressing' Hindus declined from 85 to 74% of the populace in 70 years or why Hindu/Sikh or any non-muslim men get killed when they try to marry muslim women under the 1954 special marriages act or how disrespectful coercive proselytizations are harming the cultural fabric of India or for that matter how caste system virulently endures in indian xtianity and islam)
I hope Biden observed Obama well and will tread the same path. (frankly if I had a choice and the CCP morons were not so obstinate, i would have preferred closer ties with China instead of a religion crazy US and the middle east)
On China, I think I shared with you a CSIS 4 island chain plan of China with pakistan-maldives axis serving as the third chain..china's logic for the industrial scale arming of pakistan is 'admirable' while the venal hateful thought behind it is 'deplorable'...
PS: Without continued 'alms' I wonder how pakistan will maintain a 8-10 submarine fleet along with 15-20 frigate size vessels...hate is a very potent motivator I suppose..
Hi GhalibKabir
@ December 17, 2020 at 7:02 PM
I reckon Biden’s good record as VP and other political roles, for decades, should make him better than “who-should-I-sack-today?” Trump. But Biden’s use by date may only be 2022.
So judging by Kamala Harris’s tough on crime record as California Attorney General she may sit on the conservative side of the Dems when actually forced to govern. She is also no fool - with the equivalent of a PhD in Law.
Paysite https://www.ft.com/content/668fd013-7033-4fbc-9330-e0c2bcf31638 is luckily repeated for free at https://www.afr.com/world/asia/kamala-harris-nomination-adds-to-new-delhi-unease-20200820-p55ngz
In it - if Modi’s “aggressive pursuit of a Hindu nationalist agenda” is incompatible with America’s make the whole world “a Western liberal clone of America” agenda. Modi may have to act like a true politician ie. present a good exterior to the US of A while he makes it up as he goes along...:)
In relations with India Biden is helped having an experienced foreign policy team that was in office only 4 short years ago (ie. up to Jan 20th, 2016).
Its no help to India’s situation when I point out Australia is only 2.6% Muslim (ie. 625,000) with a minimal terrorism and tiny sectarian problem.
Fortunately Biden panders less to the Christian Right-wing than Trump.
I think we both agree that its best Pakistan stays a mess – otherwise China might entrust Pakistan with far worse thermonuclear warheads.
I actually haven’t pondered the issue of Pak having 15-20 frigate size vessels”. So I looked at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Pakistan_Navy_ships#Frigates 8 frigates operational now. Plans for 8 more (4 Turkish, 4 Chinese). All smallish frigates, by today’s standards.
But with 8-10 subs, yes, its quite a force.
Pete
The problem with Pakistan and Bangladesh is that they are already hugely water stressed and severely radicalised. This is a volatile volcano waiting to erupt.
The 85:15 ratio during the 1947 partition (India 85% Hindus as per 1947 data, others were 15% incl. muslims at 9%). Pakistan was the reverse 85% M and 15% others, has collapsed. In 2020, western pakistan is 97% muslim while formerly east pakistan or Bangladesh is now over 90% muslim as radical crazies have driven out minorities. In India meanwhile for all the cries of hindu nationalism, hindus keep declining....we all know why, but it is not 'secular' to address the mountains of evidence in front of our eyes... "There is none so blind..." quote is so true today....the sub-continent is sleepwalking into a climate change induced demographic civil war by 2045-2050...
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/the-unfolding-tragedy-of-climate-change-in-bangladesh/
Australia will only start facing frictions once the islamic population crosses a meaningful threshold which tends to be 3%-10% (observing from Scandinavia,UK to Eastern Europe to France to Philippines to India). It is inevitable as unlike other religions-> politics, faith, economics and social customs are all 'self-contained' in the islamic faith and hence, even high levels of education does not result in 100% integration unlike Sikhs, Hindus or Buddhists in a western society. This has been repeatedly pointed out in MK Gandhi and Ambedkar's writings in India. Odd how many people have trouble reading those texts.
PS: As unpopular and politically incorrect as it might sound, historically speaking decision makers within islamic societies such as the clergy or other social leaders have for the overwhelming majority of the time, asked that host cultures accommodate their religious preferences and not the other way around...the useful idiots on the 'left' have buried their heads in the sand about this to everyone's peril.
Thanks GhalibKabir
For your December 21, 2020 at 4:37 PM
Due to the holiday season I'll reply next week.
Cheers
Pete
Hi GhalibKabir
at December 21, 2020 at 4:37 PM
Christmas festivities being over I can now reply.
Yes China’s growing need for fresh water (that it doesn’t manage to pollute) water is going to/is causing water shortage grief for all countries downstream (eg. Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam).
Changes in China’s diet to a liking of high-water-use red meat will exacerbate the problem. http://www.mla.com.au/prices-markets/market-news/2019/china-now-a-pillar-to-global-meat-markets/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1048115/population-growth-by-religion-india/ looks bleak. Also if China’s population continues to grow this would be a disincentive for population growth control programs in India.
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/the-unfolding-tragedy-of-climate-change-in-bangladesh/ Shows poor Bangladesh suffering from climate change sea level rises - hence reducing liveable and arable land - while increasing refugee flows into above sea level cities.
Fortunately increasing secularisation, increasing higher education, and intermarriage between religions in Australia is reducing the religion = population growth disparities.
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_Australia#Religion
Fortunately I’m now in Australia’s most popular “No Religion” category and have fathered 2 kids (now adults).
Happy New Year GhalibKabir
(in 2 days) Pete :)
Hi Pete, yes irreligious 'secularisation' does help. However, the problem with islam, at least since 1979, is that even moderates have become very 'pious', so to speak, thanks to Wahabi-Salafi checkbook diplomacy by the Saudis. Inevitably, even amongst moderates incl.many ozzie muslims, 'piety' is increasingly tied to patently regressive practices of identification through beards and head scarves. global islam is now Saudi-ized.
This, of late extends into viewing 'all or any criticism' as an attack on 'identity', the flames unhelpfully fanned by islamophobic episodes, allowing for conflation of radical islamist goals with more understandable moderate muslim fears of 'feeling targeted' for simply being pious practitioners of their faith. Worse, there is now widespread denial of the 'mainstreaming of radicalism' in islam. You may have noticed virtually no mosques in NZ or 'Straya actually condemned the Hebdo shootings or the french teacher's beheading.
As writer Hasan Suroor dolefully points out, the Saudis have killed off oxygen for liberal muslims and indeed liberal islam. Interestingly he also tells in clear terms why the term 'secular islam' is an oxymoron par excellence. His book makes one think, uncomfortably...
https://www.amazon.co.jp/-/en/Hasan-Suroor-ebook/dp/B07V7FV2SN
I will highly recommend this book. It is a good exercise in critical thinking...
PS: China will be a big source of grief for downstream riparian states in South and SE Asia. Sometimes, I think of my 34 month old daughter's future & wonder what might be in store for her generation....the peace dividend bestowed by WW 2 has been squandered...
Hi GhalibKabir
@ December 29, 2020 at 4:08 PM
Your comments on strict Saudi led and funded radical Islam seems accurate for some countries ie. Pak and Afghanistan but less so in moderate Muslim countries eg. Indonesia and even in secular Australia.
Yes China's population growth and industrial expansion will cause increasing grief to its neighbours even without CCP ideological leadership and even without the PLA's growing strength.
Meanwhile, what do you think of this article? "Mutual distrust of China heightens US-Indian intelligence cooperation to historic levels" Dec 23, 2020 by American Ian Allen, at https://intelnews.org/2020/12/23/01-2925/ beginning:
"INTELLIGENCE COOPERATION BETWEEN THE United States and India has reached historic levels in the closing months of 2020, and is driven by the two countries’ mutual distrust of China. This development is particularly noteworthy for India, which has traditionally maintained a non-aligned stance in military and intelligence matters for much of its existence. New Delhi’s increasingly close relationship with Washington is described by some experts as “a revolution in the way that India views the world and aligns with partners in Asia”."
Thanks for your insightful comments all year.
I hope you and your family have a great 2021.
Regards
Pete
@ December 29, 2020 at 4:08 PM
Disagree on Indonesia, having personally witnessed the backsliding from 2014 to 2019 under saudi money power. Seen the same nuttiness rise in Malaysia too.
https://www.thejakartapost.com/academia/2018/11/16/saudi-arabias-influence-in-southeast-asia-too-embedded-to-be-disrupted.html
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2020/apr/16/how-saudi-arabia-religious-project-transformed-indonesia-islam
https://www.futuredirections.org.au/publication/saudi-strategies-for-religious-influence-and-soft-power-in-indonesia/
Australia and NZ have too small a community, even that has caused incidents such as endeavour hills shooting to the coffe shop ISIS flag attack to the recent Melbourne and Brisbane stabbings...the febrile under soil is already available....sadly...
BTW, ominous sightings of chinese haiyi UUVs are being reported from across Indonesia to western waters of India
http://www.hisutton.com/Chinese-Sea-Wing-Submarine-Drone.html
Just like the PLAAF, the PLAN is integrating ASW, ASuW, AAW using UUVs, subs, surface vessels and E2D like aircraft..not to mention these UUVs supplementing a possible combo of Chinese RAP-FDS and SOSUS systems....submarine fleets are going to be in danger...i predict 'lone wolf' UUVs 'conveniently' having accidents in the vicinity of large surface vessels or subs soon...
PS: Did you read the rumours Jack Ma has vanished
Hi GhalibKabir
@ January 4, 2021 at 5:45 PM
Happy New 2021
Saudi over funding indeed doesn’t help.
Thanks for https://www.thejakartapost.com/academia/2018/11/16/saudi-arabias-influence-in-southeast-asia-too-embedded-to-be-disrupted.html . Good on Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Muhammad for closing the Saudi-backed King Salman Centre for International Peace (KSCIP). And “ Malaysia is also withdrawing troops from Saudi Arabia.”
Bad that the Saudi are throwing $Billions for State and religious influence at Indonesia and Malaysia.
Also unhelpful is the coming release this week of the “radical cleric and alleged mastermind of the 2002 Bali bombings Abu Bakar Bashir from prison” won’t help. See https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-05/indonesia-to-release-suspected-bali-bombings-mastermind-bashir/13031376
Where/when have Chinese Haiyi “Sea Wing” UUVs been reported elsewhere than the one fished out from Indonesia waters?
Let it not be forgot that All major naval powers have been integrating ASW, ASuW, AAW using UUVs, subs, surface vessels and E2D like aircraft, UUVs, RAP-FDS and SOSUS, sensors and weapons for years (which I used to call "SeaWeb" https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/search?q=seaweb )
including India - See https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2018/09/us-indian-iuss-link-completed-from-port.html
Yes indeed. Western subs anywhere near Chinese waters will in the medium term be located by Chinese mass produced sensors and be in danger of destruction.
“'lone wolf' UUVs 'conveniently' having accidents in the vicinity of large surface vessels or subs soon...” may become a problem especially if the offending UUVs, with their explosive warheads, have no traceable national origins/markings.
Poor missing billionaire Jack Ma https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/jack-ma-missing-232138645.html Making political speeches, not yet endorsed by Xi, is a health hazard!
Pete
mahathir is no better either...bit like exchanging the saudi inland taipan in one's underwear for a malay eastern brown...danger to the family jewel pouch remains the same...check his tweet justifying the genocide of french people over the cartoons...
I have personally got stuck in traffic jams near central jakarta in 2015 when huge islamist processions turned violent in places...If i remember right it was the episode involving the eventual jailing of Jakarta's xtian governor for 'blasphemy' (suprise surprise!)...luckily my car just made it into the gantry gates of the expressway entry point leading to the airport...
large groups were charging the highway below me..club, knife wielding baying mobs..demanding something very tolerant 'The governor's dismissal based on islamic laws prohibiting Muslims from living under the leadership of a non-Muslim' (one wonders if they understand the concept of 'civil society').
malaysia is host to terrorist preachers like zakir naik and has openly reduced 50% of the population who are nonmuslims into second class subjects (not even citizens, but state subjects) and prohibits muslim girls from marrying men of their choice...democrazy?
Indian media says China has launched more than dozen UUVs in the Indian Ocean near Indian waters/EEZ...highly likely it is, as Type 93 SSNs regularly traverse these waters too..
PS: Explosives not traceable to a country coupled with misc. electronics bearing UUVs will indeed be very dangerous...something that china or pakistan or turkey will never hesitate to use if available...
Hi GhalibKabir
@ January 6, 2021 at 5:03 PM
As a secular chap I distrust anyone who harnesses the words of God (or Gods) for a cause. Mahathir is, of course, an honest submarine buyer first and rapacious recipient of submarine “commissions” and Saudi money second.
Indonesia’s “simple solution” of shifting Jakarta’s TRAFFIC PROBLEM from Java to East Kalimantan/Borneo https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_of_Indonesia#Move_to_East_Kalimantan sounds logical.
That move will reportedly cost only $US32.7 billion rather than $Trillions to move a multi-million population city for any other country in the world.
From a coming Indonesia-Australian strategic competition angle its an excellent idea that will dominate Indonesia’s GDP for decades.
Too bad the Japanese-US-Australian-Singapore-Indian SOSUS network does not Daily publish Type 93 crossings, as it would be good material for my blog :)
Yes weaponising unidentified UUVs or jamming-turning weaponised UUVs onto passenger ships should be future possibilities to avoid.
Hence US UUV doctrine, as expressed via Bryan Clark in 2015, has been NOT to weaponise them – see https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2015/05/uuvs-need-to-complement-manned.html
Pete
Unfortunately for us 'secular chaps' Pete, the fundamentalist nitwits in the middle east, pakistan and in the US are unlikely to leave us alone....scotty from marketing goes to one of them 'fire and brimstone' places too...with climate change denialism also being part and parcel of many of these places' beliefs...terrifying to see such folks in 'The Lodge'.
non-arabs like mahathir, ergodan etc..were seriously dreaming of an non-arab non-OIC islamic front with the street urchins of the OIC like pakistan cheering them on (only, imran khan was muted brutally through the emergency recall of loans and increase in the price of crude sold to them by Saudia). unfortunately for them, every single time they have been reminded of their 'inferior convert' status vs the 'islam in the blood' arabs...along with recent financial difficulties faced by malaysia and turkey, the limits of such initiatives is visible.
As for US UUV doctrine, given the rapid drone weaponization on air and under water, at least from a defensive perspective nothing should be ruled out...we can both carve it on granite that the very intelligent adversaries in Zhongnanhai are ruling nothing out
Hi GhalibKabir
@ January 13, 2021 at 4:04 PM
Glad to hear you are secular as well, cobber.
While Australia’s PM Scott Morrison is more religious than most, he is fortunately constrained by Australia’s stronger secular tradition and tradition of religious tolerance. Few Australians in political or other public life wear religion (old, new, or “born again”) on their sleaves. Litmus tests like Abortion are uncontroversial here. Abortions are freely available. No “God, Guns and Guts Made America Great” for us Aussies, thank christ!
I would have hoped Imran Khan put his international cricketer beginnings over religious concerns. Isn’t being a star ex-bowler and Cricket Captain enough? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imran_Khan#Captaincy
The Indonesians have been highlighting their UUV finds so much I wonder if the Indons are pressuring possible Non-Chinese owner(s) of the UUVs?
Your mention of “Zhongnanhai” had me consulting WIKI https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhongnanhai . Zhongnanhai ‘s meanings “Central and South Seas” and Beijing’s power precinct may both fit your intended usage.
Cheers
Pete
Pete@January 15, 2021 at 6:31 PM
Most Hindus, Jains, Sikhs and Buddhists are not very fanatic about their religion (even the RSS-BJP are a very delayed reaction to c & m oppression over 1,000 years. Always hindus have been reactive/defensive rather than offensive, a key difference lost on many imbecilic journos unwilling to read history or if they are experts like C. Jaffrelot, they read it skewed). I am a 'cultural hindu' not a religious one.
imran khan and jinnah have one similarity. Both are/were whisky swilling, pork eating, ladies men. The problem is both had interchangeable heads and rears, and used the fanatic citizen base shamelessly to achieve power, for 'power's sake', consequences be damned.
imran khan is a pathan and it is a running gag to compare them to 'tota' or parrot (implying they are dimwitted and putty in someone else's hands). oddly enough during his uni. days in the UK, he used to be called 'Im' the Dim'...not exactly a stellar reputation.
imran came to power by offering the pakistani army to keep ruling behind the screen and by giving a free rein to extremist mullahs or islamic clergy to run riot...the PM's chair had such a steep price and he willingly paid it just like his country's founder 73 years ago.
Lastly, Zhongnanhai. The Japanese/Chinese characters as you rightly say, mean the Central and South Seas. if you see, the precinct's current main tenant is one Xi Jinping and that Zhongnanhai is part of the Qing Empire forbidden city complex, it tells you what a remarkable continuity the 2021 CCP is of the Qing era court right down to the unyielding bullying territorial irredentism and reflexive xenophobia...that Xi's party refers with sadness to the 1912 Qing abdication to justify claims over Xinjiang, Tibet and other territories should be telling...if they are actual communists then the pope is jewish...
Indeed, Dowager Cixi would have been proud at how Xi has taken China to heights that even her father in law Daoguang Emperor or his grand pa the Qianlong emperor couldn't manage..
Hi GhalibKabir
@ January 15, 2021 at 7:35 PM
Luckily this blog concentrates less on religion, and more on good, clean weaponry, that “benefits all" though nukes cost a bit and have certain dangers.
Of Jinnah, gin and tonic made Britain great after all. Quinine in tonic water is of course a useful anti-malarial https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quinine#Beverages .
Like Putin, Xi is a rather intelligent go-to Dictator for Life. Xi has not made Mao’s mistakes of running China-weakening-projects, like the later Korean War, “Great Leap Forward” and “Cultural Revolution”. Xi us biding his time until China has a sufficiently large GDP to run a major war or threat of one.
Xi has imposed some efficient capitalistic wealth growth measures as a social contract with China’s growing middle class.
Indeed Communism [1] is a useful keep the population in line oligarchy. Good for some.
[1] Marxist Communism had an Australian link you know. Marx often referred to his daughter, Laura, as "Kakadou" German/Dutch for our Cockatoo http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Marx#Family
Pete
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