December 7, 2020

.50+ Calibre Assassination of Iranian Nuclear Scientist: Diagram.

The recent assassination of Iran's top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was carried out remotely with the help of preparatory humint, satellite warning/part cuing, artificial intelligence (ie. complex software) in the Nissan shoot car, a facial recognition camera for targeting, hooked up to a machinegun (likely heavy) in the Nissan. Finally there was a bomb with about a 3 second timer to blow up the Nissan.

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was traveling with his wife in a [semi] bulletproof car in the city of Absard, east of Tehran on Friday afternoon, November 27, 2020 when he was killedFakhrizadeh's car and a car full of bodyguards were surrounded by a security detail of three other vehicles (telltale security outrider motorbikes?). The convoy had to go though a narrow, one-way, "kill zone" (see Diagram below). After going around a distracting roundabout, which semi-hid the Nissan.

Fakhrizadeh was shot at least three times by a medium-heavy machinegun in the Nissan that was parked approximately 150 meters up ahead. The Nissan later exploded after maybe 3 seconds, perhaps further damaging Fakhrizadeh's car. 

Conflicting sources (with much unlikely information) are here and here

COMMENT

Months of humint and sigint planning allows for a complex remote operation.

The satellite could have been used to cue the radio dish/antenna on the Nissan to provide 20 seconds notice that the right/expected convoy (with telltale outriders) was approaching.

(See Diagram for killzone channeling) A high spec camera in the Nissan would have been configured  to capture the target’s face through glass OR the operation planners already knew which car Fakhrizadeh was traveling in.

Fakhrizadeh's car may have only been resistant to standard 7.62mm ammunition. If the machine gun was of a heavy calibre - say .50 calibre (12.7mm) (eg. an M2 or equally common Russian Kord) with special armour piercing bullets, they could easily get to Fakhrizadeh.

Even if the heavy machine-gun failed to fire - an automatic timer in the Nissan was set to explode blowing up Fakhrizadeh's still approaching car. The explosion also had the advantage of destroying any remaining assassinating country evidence. 

Before the operation there would be little difficulty transporting the assassination equipment in pieces across any one of Iran's many loose land and sea borders (see Map below). Iran is surrounded by such loose and/or contested borders as Iraq, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Caspian Sea, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf. This presents endless opportunities for any determined state based assassination operation.

WIDE AREA MAP (Courtesy BBC)
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DIAGRAM - Points 1, 2 and 5 appear correct although the equipment was more likely hidden in a Nissan car, not an open air "pick-up". But 3 and 4 are clearly wrong: Fakhrizadeh (the VIP) would not get out of the car (that was protecting him) "to investigate the noise". Doctrine: A fired upon VIP armoured car speeds away from the threat. (Diagram coutesy USA Today Sun, with some old information as at November 30, 2020).
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