December 19, 2018

China May Have Tested JL-3 SLBM - US Eventually in Range

Bill Gertz of the Washington Free Beacon, (with frequent access to the most pessimistic interpretations of US alarm-int) December 18, 2018 announced what may be a partial test flight of a Chinese JL-3 submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM). 

[Comment: This article appears to hype the many unknowns of the future JL-3 and future Type 096 SSBN. Both may only be operational in a decade. The US DoD China Military Power 2018 Report (15 MB, PDF) indicates on page 29 "China’s next generation Type 096 SSBN, reportedly to be armed with the follow-on JL-3 SLBM, will likely begin construction in the early-2020s."]

Highlights of the announcement include: a JL-3 test flight occurred in late November 2018. 
[Comment - But apparently the test was in the rather closed waters of the Bohai Sea near Dalian. This suggests only a "cold launch" (ie. no rocket motors provided thrust).] 

The JL-3 will reportedly be 10 MIRV capable and may have a 7,456 to 8,700 mile range, from Bohai, Yellow and East China Sea bastions capable of hitting most of the continental US. The JL-3s are being developed for China’s future Type 096 SSBNs (expected to be operational by the mid-to-late 2020s) but JL-3s may be used earlier, in existing modified Type 094 SSBNs. 

The test launch may have been from a large conventional Type 032 Qing class technology testbed submarine. The Type 032’s fin/sail may contain 2 or 3 missile launch tubes, reportedly enlarged for JL-3 tests.

The one and only 6,000+ tonne Chinese Type 032 Qing class submarine, in 2013. Note very long sail/fin - thought to accommodate vertical launch system (VLS) tubes for missile tests. (Photo courtesy Chinese Military Review)
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Type 032 in an "August 2017" photo, with a higher/enlarged rear of sail/fin, maybe for longer VLS to test a longer/higher JL-3 missile. (Photo courtesy the December 2018 Washington Free Beacon article.)
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The reportedly solid-fueled JL-3 may use technologies from the DF-41 land-based ICBM. The JL-3 may be comparable to the US/UK Trident II D-5 and Russian Bulava SLBMs.

The JL-3 may utilize advanced precision guidance technology with anti-jamming capabilities, may be variable trajectory, and may have fast burning rocket motors that seek to reduce the heat signature picked up by US warning satellites to track and target JL-3s.

“China's current sea-based nuclear force includes four Type-094 missile submarines, each outfitted with "16" missiles [more likely 12]. Internet reports from China have stated that the future Type-096 will carry up to 24 missiles - similar to numbers at one time carried by Navy Ohio-class missile submarines. Current U.S. missile submarines [may] carry 20 missiles each.”

By contrast, the next generation U.S. missile submarine, the Columbia-class, will carry 16 missiles.
[There may be a] growing possibility of offensive nuclear cooperation between China and Russia." so “Washington needs to retain the flexibility to increase the number of missiles carried by the future Columbia class SSBN."
SEE WHOLE WASHINGTON FREE BEACON ARTICLE

7 comments:

Nick said...

Off piste

"Lockheed Martin sail-mounted submarine sonar to provide 360-degree underwater situational awareness December 5, 2018 By John Keller 

US Naval Sea Systems announced a $7.1 million order to build additional Low-Cost Conformal Array (LCCA) sonar systems for high-frequency sonar coverage above and behind the submarine.

The LCCA is to be mounted on both sides of the submarine sail aboard Improved Los Angeles class fast attack submarines (SSN 688i), earlier-model 688-class boats, Seawolf-class attack submarines (SSN 21), Virginia-class attack submarines (SSN 774), and Ohio-class guided-missile submarines.

Combined with the legacy high frequency sail array mounted in the front of the sail, the system provides 360-degree detection capability and situational awareness with high frequency passive sonar.

The LCCA is designed to help submarine commanders navigate safely among conventional and nuclear submarines and surface warships, as well as civil and commercial surface vessels by alerting submarine crews of short-range contacts."

From

Pete said...

Thanks Nick

But we may have entered a worm hole in the space time continuum. See https://www.militaryaerospace.com/articles/2012/03/lockheed-martin-to-provide-navy-submarines-with-360-degree-situational-awareness-sail-mounted-sonar.html

where John Keller wrote an article on March 25, 2012 with a very similar title "Lockheed Martin to provide Navy submarines with 360-degree situational-awareness sail-mounted sonar"

and then identical wording in parts.

Most strange.

Josh said...

@Pete:

Unrelated, but I wanted to bring this to your attention: what looks like a Yu-6 reeled in by the Vietnamese:

https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a25630315/vietnam-fisherman-chinese-torpedo/


Cheers,
Josh

Anonymous said...

Hi Pete

Japan formaly decide to refit its Izumo-class (Izumo, Kaga) for the F-35Bs, and to have test-submarine. Chinese government criticizes this plan.

Regards

Pete said...

Thanks Josh

The https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yu-6_torpedo though basic, is quite a propaganda Christmas present for Vietnam

and an embarrassment to the Chinese Navy that lost it.

see https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a25630315/vietnam-fisherman-chinese-torpedo/ with the contrarotating propellers as lovely as a tropical orchid :)

Regards

Pete

Pete said...

Thanks Anonymous at 20/12/18 12:12 PM

Japan's purchase of F-35Bs (for what are more openly being called aircrafts carriers)

as well as purchases of F-35As seems a useful form of arms buying diplomacy to help

keep the US protecting Japan.

Also Japan needs to replace its old F-15 fighters with cutting edge F-35 fighters (that can better interact with US F-35s and F-22s).

Regards

Pete

Pete said...

Hi again Anonymous at 20/12/18 12:12 PM

Inresponse to your "Japan formaly decide to refit its Izumo-class (Izumo, Kaga) for the
F-35Bs"

see my new article

Japan Buying Around 190 F-35s. Some for F-35B aircraft carriers, of December 20, 2018

at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2018/12/japan-buying-around-190-f-35s-some-for.html

Regards

Pete