China May Have Tested JL-3 SLBM - US Eventually in Range

Bill Gertz of the Washington Free Beacon, (with frequent access to the most pessimistic interpretations of US alarm-int) December 18, 2018 announced what may be a partial test flight of a Chinese JL-3 submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM). 

[Comment: This article appears to hype the many unknowns of the future JL-3 and future Type 096 SSBN. Both may only be operational in a decade. The US DoD China Military Power 2018 Report (15 MB, PDF) indicates on page 29 "China’s next generation Type 096 SSBN, reportedly to be armed with the follow-on JL-3 SLBM, will likely begin construction in the early-2020s."]

Highlights of the announcement include: a JL-3 test flight occurred in late November 2018. 

[Comment - But apparently the test was in the rather closed waters of the Bohai Sea near Dalian. This suggests only a "cold launch" (ie. no rocket motors provided thrust).] 

The JL-3 will reportedly be 10 MIRV capable and may have a 7,456 to 8,700 mile range, from Bohai, Yellow and East China Sea bastions capable of hitting most of the continental US. The JL-3s are being developed for China’s future Type 096 SSBNs (expected to be operational by the mid-to-late 2020s) but JL-3s may be used earlier, in existing modified Type 094 SSBNs. 

The test launch may have been from a large conventional Type 032 Qing class technology testbed submarine. The Type 032’s fin/sail may contain 2 or 3 missile launch tubes, reportedly enlarged for JL-3 tests.

The one and only 6,000+ tonne Chinese Type 032 Qing class submarine, in 2013. Note very long sail/fin - thought to accommodate vertical launch system (VLS) tubes for missile tests. (Photo courtesy Chinese Military Review)

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Type 032 in an "August 2017" photo, with a higher/enlarged rear of sail/fin, maybe for longer VLS to test a longer/higher JL-3 missile. (Photo courtesy the December 2018 Washington Free Beacon article.)

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The reportedly solid-fueled JL-3 may use technologies from the DF-41 land-based ICBM. The JL-3 may be comparable to the US/UK Trident II D-5 and Russian Bulava SLBMs.

The JL-3 may utilize advanced precision guidance technology with anti-jamming capabilities, may be variable trajectory, and may have fast burning rocket motors that seek to reduce the heat signature picked up by US warning satellites to track and target JL-3s.

“China's current sea-based nuclear force includes four Type-094 missile submarines, each outfitted with "16" missiles [more likely 12]. Internet reports from China have stated that the future Type-096 will carry up to 24 missiles - similar to numbers at one time carried by Navy Ohio-class missile submarines. Current U.S. missile submarines [may] carry 20 missiles each.”

By contrast, the next generation U.S. missile submarine, the Columbia-class, will carry 16 missiles.

[There may be a] growing possibility of offensive nuclear cooperation between China and Russia." so “Washington needs to retain the flexibility to increase the number of missiles carried by the future Columbia class SSBN."

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