Japan Providing Information for Future Submarine Selection

A crewmen dangerously perched on a sail-plane of a Soryu (with is submarine number removed for security).

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What I see as the most interesting parts of a Japan Times May 18, 2015 article are:

“The National Security Council of Japan on [May 18, 2015] approved disclosing some technical data on the nation’s submarine technology to Australia, which is conducting a feasibility study on possible joint development and production of its next-generation submarine fleet…The scope of disclosure will be decided through negotiations but it will be limited to what Canberra would need for its feasibility study, the official said. Japan plans to propose joint development and production with Australia, based on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s earlier decision to ease the nation’s self-imposed regulations on arms exports. Complicating matters, though, many aspects of the nation’s submarine know-how have likely been classified as top secret.”

MY COMMENT

Presumably development would center on achieving longer range for “SoryuAU” and perhaps more radically a vertical launch system. I assume negotiations might be through letter/email/Embassies or Minister Nakatani talking to Minister Andrews directly at the annual 2+2 talks in Canberra or Tokyo perhaps in early June 2015. (based on last years 2+2 being in early June 2014) . 

On June 1, 2015 it was confirmed that next week Minister Andrews would meet Minister Nakatani as well as visiting the MHI and KHI submarine yards at Kobe http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/breaking-news/defence-minister-to-visit-japan/story-fni0xqi3-1227378114675 . It is also likely that Andrews and Foreign Minister Bishop will meet Minister Nakatani and Foreign Minister Kishida in Tokyo at the annual 2+2 talks.

Ministers Andrews and Bishop may also be attending a 2+2 meeting in Seoul with their South Korean counterparts - maybe right now in early June.

Hours after I wrote the previous paragraph the Minister's Office or Defence advised (or confirmed to) The Australian (May 20, 12.00AM) that "Kevin Andrews will visit Japan within weeks after the country’s national security council signed off on plans to bid for the navy’s future submarine project..." This is in conjuction with the annual 2+2 talks. I'd like to think The Australian monitor Submarine Matters :-)

S has provided many useful insights and 2 internet documents - see Comments for Minister Andrews Phone Call to Minister Nakatani, May 7, 2015.

The first document was Defence Programs and Budget of Japan Overview of FY2015 Budget Request http://www.mod.go.jp/e/d_budget/pdf/261003.pdf. Very relevant parts of it are:

Page 4: "Construction of a submarine (1 ship: ¥64.4 billion)

・Construct the 11th Soryu-class submarine (2,900t class) to increase the number of submarines from the current 16 to 22 ships. [Comment 11^th Soryu is 27SS with AIP? and LIB? costing ¥64.4 billion? Will 28SS still be LIB no AIP?]

・Improve underwater endurance [Comment – Yes Australia wants greater endurance] , etc. compared with the existing Soryu-class submarines by mounting lithium-ion batteries ○ Life extension of submarines (life extension work for 2 ships and parts procurement for 3 ships: ¥3.4 billion)

・ Implement life extension measures for Oyashio-class submarines in order to increase the number of submarines from the current 16 to 22 ships.[Comment – hopefully as Japan implements more life extensions Japan will be more able to build subs that can operate to the Australian goal of 30 years]

Page 18: “Increase the number of Defense Attachés, etc. (Ukraine, Poland and Australia)” [Comment – I wonder if the first Attaché in Canberra might be a senior Submarine Officer]

Page 20: “Promoting bilateral, trilateral and multilateral defense cooperation and exchanges, including those with Australia, ROK and India, as well as Japan-U.S.-Australia and Japan-U.S.-ROK defense cooperation”

I found Japanese language budget paper 2014 Fiscal Year Life Cycle Cost Management Annual Report http://www.mod.go.jp/epco/about/pdf/26lifecyclecost_houkokusyo.pdf (pages 77-80) too difficult to generate a useful picture. Even using Google Translate the document is in tables, columns with specialist language conventions used for Japanese government bureaucracy yearly budgeting. Japanese language newspaper articles are easy by comparison.

Pete