Hamish McDonald in Australia’s The Saturday Paper, April 16, 2016 https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/world/south-and-central-asia/2016/04/16/japanese-unlikely-supply-our-submarines/14607288003128 has written a most surprising article with the expectation that Germany’s TKMS has won the Future Submarine CEP.
Here is a portion but its best to read the whole article at The Saturday Paper site.
“Japanese unlikely to supply our submarines”
"…The Defence Department is understood to have completed the “competitive evaluation process” called for by former prime minister Tony Abbott a year ago after his secret “captain’s call” in favour of Sōryū boats built in Japan caused a mutiny in Coalition ranks. Its recommendation will shortly go to the national security committee of Malcolm Turnbull’s cabinet…
…Increasingly, defence circles think the bid by Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems looks the safer bet. An associated German shipyard provided the design and back-up for the RAN’s trouble-free Anzac-class frigate program. TKMS has built about 160 submarines since 1960, including 50 in the local yards of foreign navy customers, not to mention the hundreds of U-boats turned out by its predecessors in Kiel. At least the Americans won’t have to work with the French…"
I haven't seen other commentaries that Germany has won. The final decision still needs to get through the Turnbull Government Cabinet.
Nevertheless perceived German (TKMS) strengths include:
- choosing Germany is less likely to offend China which genuinely fears a militarily resurgent Japan
- Germany’s long experience as a builder of submarines tailor-made for specific customer needs
- Germany makes the well known MTU 4000 diesel modified for marine use
- Germany has the most experience and most success in overseeing foreign build projects (just look how South Korea is churning out Type 209s and 214s)
- Germany is not dedicated to building new, possibly risky, Lithium-ion Batteries into a Australian submarine, but instead could build standard Lead-acid Batteries
- Germany has no issues of difficult to weld submarine steel or short operational submarine life
- Germany can supply the most advanced, proven air independent propulsion (AIP) if Australia eventually favours AIP
- German designed 209s and 214s have already included some elements of the US combat system for US weapons including the Mark 48 torpedo.