July 27, 2014
July 24, 2014
Rajat Pandit of the Times of India has reported a new day dawning in Indian submarine construction and purchasing. In Pandit's Brave New World there will be none of the chronic inertia, corruption and gross inefficiency that has bedeviled the military-industrial complex since India's Russian submarines began to rust prematurely.
Like Little Annie Fanny (mugshot above) one waits with baited breath (having prudently bought some scuba gear) for India's long awaited:
- 6 Scorpenes,
- 6 Project-75India SSKs (as yet unselected) and
- 6 (yes 6) SSNs**
...to pour off the sub-continental production lines. Eat your heart out WWII Germany, and Cold War Russia and "Uncle", for India will launch subs at a pace unseen in mass production history.
* the Agni nuclear missile project is an exception, which is genuinely efficient, as it has been given top priority.
** this is not counting the promised 3 operational Arihant class SSBNs (including the present launched INS Arihant) that have been "around the corner" since 2009.
The miraculous Times of India, July 14, 2014, article follows http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Move-to-fast-track-two-submarine-projects-gathers-steam/articleshow/38342676.cms :
"Move to fast-track two submarine projects gathers steam"
NEW DELHI: There is finally some urgency [surely you jest Rajat HAHAHAHA :-) ] being shown to rescue India's ageing and depleting underwater combat arm. The approval for two long-pending projects, one for construction of six advanced diesel-electric submarines and the other for six nuclear-powered ones, is well on the cards now.
Sources said the finance ministry has asked the defence ministry to "club" the separate projects to "draft a single note" for the requisite nod from Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS). "The two projects have been languishing for long in the files being exchanged between the two ministries. The government seems serious about fast-track approvals this time," said a source.
The approvals, when they come, will not be a day too soon since India is down to just 13 old diesel-electric submarines, barely half of which are operational at any given time, and a single nuclear-propelled submarine INS Chakra on lease from Russia without any long-range missiles.
It takes at least seven to eight years for the first submarine to roll out once its construction project actually gets underway. The two projects will together entail a cost of well over Rs 1 lakh crore spread over 10-15 years.
'Project-75India' for the six conventional submarines, armed with both land-attack missiles and air-independent propulsion (AIP) for greater underwater endurance, was granted "acceptance of necessity'' in November 2007, as was reported earlier by TOI.
But the global tender to select the foreign collaborator for it is yet to be even issued. As per the existing plan, the first two submarines will be imported to save time, while three will be constructed at Mazagon Docks (Mumbai), and the sixth at Hindustan Shipyard (Visakhapatnam).
The project to build the six SSNs (nuclear-powered attack submarines, usually without nuclear-tipped missiles), in turn, is to be undertaken at the secretive ship-building centre (SBC) at Vizag. India's first three SSBNs (nuclear-powered submarines with nuclear ballistic missiles) are already being built at the SBC to complete the country's nuclear weapons triad - the capability to fire nukes from land, air and underwater. The expertise gained in the construction of the SSBNs will help the SSN project, said sources.
The first SSBN, the 6,000-tonne INS Arihant, is slated to go for extensive sea trials soon after its miniature 83 mw pressurized light-water reactor, which went "critical" in August last year, attains "full power" in another month or so. The second, INS Aridhaman, is also to be "launched into water" soon with its hull and basic structure ready.
China, incidentally, has five nuclear and 51 conventional submarines. It is poised to induct up to five JIN-class SSBNs, with their new 7,400-km range JL-2 missiles, over the next few years.
India, however, has miserably failed in this arena. It was in 1999 that the CCS had approved a 30-year submarine-building plan, which envisaged induction of 12 new submarines by 2012, followed by another dozen by 2030.
But 15 years later, not a single new submarine has been inducted because of politico-bureaucratic apathy. The first programme, Project-75, was finalized only in 2005 to build six French Scorpene submarines at MDL. It's already running over four years behind schedule, with the first Scorpene now slated for delivery by November 2016 and the other five rolling out thereafter every 8-10 months. Moreover, the Rs 1,800 crore contract to buy 98 heavy-weight torpedoes to arm the submarines is also yet to be inked."
July 23, 2014
Denmark is half-way between Sweden and Germany!!
I have it on good authority that Eurosclerotic means "some Danish sex Goddess enjoying a vein".
Confusing? Doesn't matter. They are both good-looking and great actresses, with a lot of heart.
And what is the "Do It For Denmark!" campaign?
"Denmark faces a crisis. Our birthrate is at a 27 year low. At Spies we’re concerned. Fewer Danes mean fewer to support the ageing population - and tragically, fewer holidaying with us. Research shows that Danes have 46% more sex [think of that!] on city holidays and since more sex equals the chance of more kids, we are prescribing a romantic city holiday to save Denmark’s future." seehttp://www.spies.dk/do-it-for-denmark .
Gabriele Susanne Kerner was born in Germany on March 24, 1960. She is better known by her stage name Nena. She's not only a (German) singer but also an actress and comedian, who rose to international fame in 1983 with the New German Wave song "99 Luftballons".
I remember the German and the subsequent English versions in 1983-84 well (see below).
Nena sings 99 Luftballons - much prettier in the German version!
Nena sings 99 Red Balloons.
July 19, 2014
(Diagram credit )
Note that it is a Russian News Agency that reported the capture of a Buk missile system by pro-Russian separatists just less than 3 weeks before the shootdown. That short training period would have given the Russian rebel Buk missile operators sufficient time to learn how to fire the missiles - but, as it transpires, insufficient time to learn the procedures for identifying targets - like MH17.
JULY 15, 2014 - THE FSB WILL SOON PURGE THE GRU
On July 15, 2014 I, using my pseudonym "plantagenet" on On Line Opinion wrote http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=16493&page=0#288071 :
" - Crimea and now eastern Ukraine . I hear the FSB will soon purge the GRU itself because the GRU is doing too well in terms of oppression. See "Crimea crisis brings Russian military spies back in the game" http://intelnews.org/2014/07/09/01-1510/
Posted by plantagenet, Tuesday, 15 July 2014 8:41:04 PM "
It was just an educated hunch. The GRU had risen too quickly in the Russian intelligence pecking order, due to its early-mid 2014 successes in collecting intelligence in Crimea-Ukraine and in deploying special forces troops in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Internally, Putin will blame the GRU for the shootdown mistake - a grievous public relations disaster for Russia. Putin will use his main enforcer and old workplace, FSB, to punish the GRU.
JULY 18, 2014 - ONE DAY AFTER THE SHOOTDOWN
Unfortunately captured or bought small and medium SAMs may become more commonly used by insurgents-terrorists elsewhere - especially in the Middle East (Lebanon, Syria, Iraq) and Afghanistan-Pakistan, also several countries in Africa.
See also http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-23/mh17-how-can-airlines-defend-against-missile-attacks/5616674 which ends "Professor Theodore Postal, professor of science technology and security at [MIT indicated] that defending civilian airliners against such attacks "is extremely difficult to do". After all, "combat aircraft have pretty sophisticated electronic countermeasures," Professor Postal said. "And they get shot down all the time."
OTHER INTERESTING LINKS
http://intelnews.org/2014/07/18/01-1517/ Ukraine rebels ‘admit downing Malaysia plane’ in phone intercepts
July 16, 2014
[The following is under copyright]
July 11, 2014
Australia Inches Closer to Japanese Submarine Deal
July 6, 2014
If there is a tender for the combat system many companies and combinations of companies may put forward bids-solutions. My guess is that after some bidders are eliminated the two final bidders will be:
- the ATLAS ELEKTRONIK ISUS 90 (or the more advanced ISUS 2000) with ATLAS is owned by ThyssenKrupp and Airbus DS. ThyssenKrupp owns Howaldtswerke Deutsche Werft (HDW) the world's largest conventional submarine builder. The prospect of the one major company, ThyssenKrupp, through HDW and Atlas offering the submarine and combat system (respectively) to Australia makes sense. ISUS means Integrated Sensor Underwater System
The ISUS 90 is on many of HDW's all export Type 209 and 214 submarines
On export markets, it is selected to equip every new submarines of Agosta, Scorpene and Andrasta types and to modernize submarines such as the Type 209.
- Submarines are increasingly faced with various missions including littoral and blue-water operations, stand-alone missions or within a naval force. SUBTICS indicates it can offer:
- Efficient acoustic sensors including low frequency arrays and scalable data processing offering outstanding detection abilities of distant targets at high speed;
- Efficient non acoustic sensors on the surface and at periscope depth offering a high level of discretion;
- Communication facilities (from VLF to SHF), noiseless and fully integrated allowing submarine to interact in real time within a force;
- Data synthesis from every sensors (optical, optronic, R-ESM and C-ESM, radar);
- Advanced, automatic and interactive target motion analysis Tracks identification and classification functionality;
- Track fusion and association through an interactive track management tool;
- Tactical, command and engagement aids with regard to geographical and tactical environment
- Tactical Data Links operation; and
- Fire and weapon control Torpedoes : F17, SUT 266, TP617, Black Shark, F21 Missiles : SM39 and land-attack capability
- Brazil (4 Scorpene being built) 1 SSN (to be built)
- Chile (2 Scorpene, 2 Type 209)
- Ecuador (2 Type 209)
- India, (in the 4 Type 209 “Shishumar” class?)
- Malaysia (2 Scorpene)
- Pakistan (Agosta 90B, Khalid Classes),
- Singapore (4 Challenger, 2 Archer Class) Type 218SG will not be using the French SUBTICS - instead using an Atlas Elektronik and ST Electronics designed system.
- Venezuela (2 unserviceable Type 209)
Australia is very accustomed to the AN/BYG-1 and TKMS has experience in integrating the AN/BYG-1 with Brazil's Type 209 submarines. Therefore HDW should have no problem integrating AN/BYG-1 into the 216-218 solution for Australia's future submarine.
Brazil (Tupi Class (Type 209))
Canada (Victoria Class)
SOURCES POINTING AT PREFERENCE FOR US
See http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2013/05/a-new-australian-submarine-with-aip.html In October 2009 Australia's then Minister of Defence Material Greg Combet, speaking still current RAN views, indicated that the US would play a big part in developing Australia's future submarine. The Sydney Morning Herald recorded what Mr Combet said on October 6, 2009. http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/us-to-play-key-role-in-new-aussie-subs-20091006-gky2.html: "US 'to play key role' in new Aussie subs" October 6, 2009...
"...I expect that Australia will look to learn from companies like General Dynamics Electric Boat and Lockheed Martin in designing and developing the Collins class replacement," he said in a statement.
"...US technology is likely to be an important facilitator of this capability," he said.
See http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/australias-future-submarine-selection-s.html of 20 January 2014 - Prime Minister, Minister for Defence and Minister for Defence Materiel – Joint Media Release – 2013 Defence White Paper: The Future Submarine Program 3 May 2013 http://www.minister.defence.gov.au/2013/05/03/prime-minister-minister-for-defence-and-minister-for-defence-materiel-joint-media-release-2013-defence-white-paper-the-future-submarine-program-2/
- Some 2011 US RAND Corporation studies http://www.rand.org/topics/submarines.html concerning Australian submarine issues needs to be added.
An excellent source on Combat Systems generally and by system-maker is Norman Friedman The Naval Institute Guide to World Naval Weapon Systems 5th edn, 2006, pp. 133-156, text online
It is difficult to pick a winner. Australia should avoid solutions that: are divided, involve too many corporate-national vendors, as they lead to greater cost and program complexity. Therefore at least three options remain, including:
- The prospect of the one major company, ThyssenKrupp, through HDW and Atlas offering the submarine (HDW 216 or 218) and combat system (ISUS 90 or ISUS 2000). This unity under TKMS is attractive.
- If Australia chooses an enlarged Scorpene (with an eventual SSN a la Brazil possible) then SUBTICS would be a logical choice.