Reported by Australia's Government owned ABC News. An up to A$300 Billion bomb grade highly enriched uranium (HEU) submarine reactor waste dump (see item 7 below) in Australia will forever remain controversial even if it is on Australian Defence Department land. The most likely land is the Woomera Defence Base in South Australia, which just happens to be shared with 6 Aboriginal groups. Another complicating possibility is the "Trojan Horse Risk" of the US and UK seeing Australia as an international dump for their own HEU.
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1. A Bipartisan POLITICAL
REALITY (for votes) for any new Australian submarines is that they be built at
Osborne Shipyard in South Australia (SA), NOT overseas (except for a prototype or 2). This is no matter how much more expensive (and risky as a project) Osborne built subs will be compared to foreign built subs.
2. And the whole
Australian ECONOMIC lobby (Federal Government, SA Government, ASC, SA economy, Employers, Unions,
sub-contractors, equipment suppliers, consultants, nuclear lobby, Adelaide public) agrees with Osborne built.
3. Because of the China
threat, and Chinese skill at saturating the seas around Australia and to the
north of Australia with mobile and fixed Anti-Submarine sensors new Australian subs that
have very noisy diesel generators are obsolete. Conventional subs without diesels that only rely on AIP and/or Lithium-ion
batteries lack speed/range.
4. The two or more classes
of large Australian UUVs (eg. Ghost Shark and Speartooth) being developed can perform all of the peacetime
SECRET missions the Collins are currently performing. Also Australian large UAVs,
manned aircraft and satellites are available for reconnaissance and sigint. All of the above and
secret fixed Australian sensors dotted all over the place can do anti-sub and
anti-surface warfare work.
5. Long range
anti-shipping strike traditionally allotted to Collins can be increasingly
performed by aircraft, current long range missiles and, in future, variants of Gilmour Space ( DF-26 like) anti-ship and land attack IRBMs.
6. AUKUS Pillar 1 may turn out to be unaffordable. Australia has earmarked about A$40 Billion so far for deposits to highly profitable US and UK submarine industries and for SA and Western Australian naval infrastructure. Australia is handicapped by the standard Australian Big Project Inefficiency rule of thumb, ie. taking twice the time for three times the estimated cost. So the mere A$368 Billion estimated for AUKUS Pillar 1 may morph into A$Trillion over 60 years to acquire 8 SSNs that may be too large and crew hungry for Australian needs.
7. In addition to A$1 Trillion there have been no precise costings for disposing of the HEU reactors from Australia's future nuclear submarines - a task that must occur in Australia under AUKUS. One authoritative estimate is up to A$300 Billion - mainly for an HEU dump that must be defended (in practical terms) forever by highly armed security forces. This HEU dump security is treated internationally with the same stringency as defending active nuclear warheads.
4 comments:
Long-time lurker first time poster - just saw that CAMECO will buy all the output from the SILEX plant in Kentucky
https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/cameco-in-offtake-agreement-for-us-laser-enrichment-plant
Maybe a way to reduce the amount of contact that the plant or its people / output have with the external environment
Thanks for raising this one Pete. I worked on the SA Royal Commission into Nuclear waste. Disposal back in 2015/16. The technical report concluded that there were multiple sites in SA feasible for the safe long term disposal of nuclear waste. However the citizen jury report oppose it, and it was not economic as an industry unless a body (government?) agreed to fund it. See
https://nla.gov.au/nla.obj-281452879/view
An issue of frustration to me is that, in looking for disposal sites that were safe, secure and stable, the RC found several that were ex mining sites. For example, the old Radium Hill mine was excellent.for safe long term storage of nuclear waste in large scale. AUKUS has referred to “Defence land” for this purpose. This is obviously for administrative convenience, not technical soundness. Activities on Defence land can proceed without various planning approvals. But Defence land (e.g. Woomera) has no physical advantages for this purpose.
IMO this is an AUKUS opportunity lost due to political timidity. Safe long term nuclear waste disposal is difficult and good sites are rare. Australia currently has no disposal site for existing medical, scientific and industrial (mainly mining industry) waste. AUKUS adds to this need. A UK nuclear engineer I worked with on the RC remarked that countries like UK had no suitable equivalent site to Radium Hill. There is. an opportunity to establish a suitable site and sell use of that facility. See also https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-02/nuclear-waste-dump-best-economic-option-business-sa-says/6666212
Of course this also gets more difficult and costly if disposal of HEU rather than LEU is involved. This is one of multiple reasons why I prefer an LEU SSN for the RAN.
Hi Anonymous at 9/17/2026 7:07 PM
De-lurking now commenting :) Thanks for https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/cameco-in-offtake-agreement-for-us-laser-enrichment-plant In that article the artwork of the future GLE Paducah Laser Enrichment Facility in Kentucky shows a huge building.
Advise from the US, eg. from Los Alamos, was that SILEX plants were "small scale" compared to preceding cascades of Gas Centrifuges. But the huge scale of the of future Paducah Laser Enrichment Facility in Kentucky might suggest massive storage under one roof of tailings and possibly of 5 to 10% HALEU enriched Uranium https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enriched_uranium#High-assay_LEU_(HALEU)
Enriching uranium to 10% actually represents about 50% to 60% of the total physical effort required to reach weapons-grade uranium (usually defined as 90% U-235).
See https://www.google.com/search?q=10%25+enrichment+is+not+a+linear+measure.+It+may+represent+a+higher+number+of++20+to+30%25+of+the+effort+required+towards+bomb+grade+U.&sca_esv=8886e09268ba5536&sxsrf=APpeQnstsQzRZP-FKBAXK2qmaFIDuQ5agg%3A1789712469230&ei=VdisarHMDZve2roP0oy6eA&biw=1280&bih=598&uact=5&oq=10%25+enrichment+is+not+a+linear+measure.+It+may+represent+a+higher+number+of++20+to+30%25+of+the+effort+required+towards+bomb+grade+U.&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAigwExMCUgZW5yaWNobWVudCBpcyBub3QgYSBsaW5lYXIgbWVhc3VyZS4gSXQgbWF5IHJlcHJlc2VudCBhIGhpZ2hlciBudW1iZXIgb2YgIDIwIHRvIDMwJSBvZiB0aGUgZWZmb3J0IHJlcXVpcmVkIHRvd2FyZHMgYm9tYiBncmFkZSBVLkgAUABYAHAAeAGQAQCYAQCgAQCqAQCwAQC4AQPIAQD4AQL4AQGYAgCgAgCYAwDiAwQYACBd4gMEGAAgXuIDBBgAIF_iAwQYACBg4gMEGAAgYeIDBBgAIGKSBwCgBwCyBwC4BwDCBwDIBwCACAE&sclient=gws-wiz-serp
Cheers Pete
Hi Anonymous at 9/20/2026 8:09 AM on a HEU dump
On your statement "Australia currently has no disposal site for existing medical, scientific and industrial (mainly mining industry) waste."
This may have been bypassed by https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/11/pop-up-sandy-ridge-nuclear-waste-dump.html.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-06/nuclear-waste-sandy-ridge-facility-tellus-holdings-aukus/104130550 advised on August 6, 2024:
"For two decades federal governments have tried to find a place to store low-level radioactive waste and failed. Tellus Holdings has 100,000 tonnes of it stored in the WA outback at a facility called Sandy Ridge...[In WA this is low-level radioactive waste in a deep pit under a huge canopy].
""In the past year we've accepted 6,000 cubic metres of radioactive material and in this entire cell we've accepted 100,000 tonnes of combined low-level radioactive waste and chemical waste," Tellus Holdings CEO Nate Smith told 7.30."
"...Mr Smith said it took 10 years to secure state government approval for the $80 million facility in the area he says is geologically suited for the disposal of dangerous waste.
"It was almost a decade long process to actually get the approval ... multiple steps, peer reviews, international experts weighing in on our safety case. So very robust," he said." SEE MUCH MORE
Pete Comment
This doesn't resolve security of HEU storage of course - requiring a small army to guard weapons grade U from terrorists or even against state based threats - like commando operations to seize 50 nuclear weapons worth of HEU.
Pete
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