August 11, 2026

Best Buying Virginias: Astute a Failed Program Meaning SSN-A Followon High Risk

In response to points raised by Arpit Kanodia on August 9, 2026.

In Australia's case there's no way we could build SSNs - especially the reactor half - under a plan relying on the UK's failing submarine industry - to oversee construction of SSN-AUKUS aka "SSN-A"(which will be an overly large advanced Astute) at Osborne, South Australia.

Buying 8 Virginias (already useful for close to shore work) and of proven working design is our best bet. They will likely only be available to the RAN after 2040, while Columbia SSBN construction delays full production of Virginias. Delays may mean the final 3 Virginias Australia buys are Virginia Block Vs and Block VIs. Both Blocks will feature flexible missile choice Virginia Payload Modules (VPMs). VPMs can host Tomahawk SLCMs but will also be able to host Submarine Launched Hypersonic Missiles (SLHMs.)

Australia needs to further upgrade Fleet Grade West basing (costing many $Billions) for a US SSN squadron. UK SSN's are only available once a year on propaganda visits,


We also need to continue upgrading of SSN repair facilities at Osborne. The Osborne facilities could help ease the burden of the over-extended US SSN repair effort.

Fortunately US Democrats and also Republicans indicate they support "proliferation" to the RAN of some Virginias - with the latest proven US reactor design. 

Australia would do best to have an all SSN submarine service. Our Collins SSKs can only be extended to about 2044 - though useful in northward straits and narrows. Any new class of RAN SSKs would take 25 years for Australia to build. Buying foreign built SSKs doesn't seem to be politically possible in Australia. A parallel new SSK program would overstretch our huge submarine budget (orientated to AUKUS and the Collins LOTE).

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Compared to currently operational US Virginias a major failing of the SSN-A is it  being a follow-on to the failed Astute and size to accommodate the larger PWR3 reactor called PWR3+ for SSN. There is mighty shallow water Australian subs need to operate in to our north.

Google AI advised on August 11, 2026:

The UK’s Rolls-Royce PWR3 [and PWR3+] reactor[s are] larger and more powerful than the older PWR2 design. [1, 2]
Size and Design Comparison
  • PWR2: Powered the Vanguard-class and Astute-class submarines, requiring a substantial hull diameter but utilizing an older core configuration that required mid-life refuelling or core updates. [1, 2, 3]
  • PWR3: Developed for the much larger Dreadnought-class ballistic missile submarines and selected for the future SSN-AUKUS attack submarines (using a variant called PWR3+). It has a physical footprint and core design necessitating a wider hull diameter (12.8 meters on Dreadnought) compared to preceding boat designs. [1, 2, 3, 4]

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

French Ano
Today the SK Défense Ministery has formally issues a proposal for a very comprehensive plan for SSN for political approval..target2035..
Includes Safety,Training,fuel cycle…..
Target is 2035,between the lines this is obviously an LEU reactor
Only issue is the US légal waiver for the LEU purchase
No surprise at all,the discrete programme is becoming public

Anonymous said...

So buying South Korean Subs is out of the question?

South Korea Issues Draft Law to Advance Jangbogo-N Nuclear Submarine Program:

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2026/08/south-korea-draft-law-jangbogo-n-nuclear-submarine-program/

Pete2 said...

Hi French Anonymous at 8/11/2026 6:30 PM and Anonymous at 8/12/2026 1:36 AM

I'm assuming you are both talking about Eunhyuk Cha's "South Korea Issues Draft Law to Advance Jangbogo-N Nuclear Submarine Program" of August 11, 2026 at https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2026/08/south-korea-draft-law-jangbogo-n-nuclear-submarine-program/

Also note the parallel SK article at https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/amp/southkorea/defense/20260811/defense-ministry-arms-agency-form-dedicated-teams-for-nuclear-powered-sub-program

Anonymous at 8/12/2026 1:36 AM you ask "So buying South Korean Subs is out of the question?"
Answer is Yes. Australia has already invested 5 years and more than $10 Billion (equals direct payments to the US + more expensive upgrades to Fleet Base West and Osborne SSN building and repair facilities to initially host best in the world Virginia and Los Angeles class SSNs + major alliance political capital).

Are you suggesting we sacrifice all that time, money and alliance relations to buy a N-sub from SK that has NEVER built a nuclear sub. By the tempo of SSN building nations after SK builds its first preference - an SSBN variant of the KSS-III Batch 3 SK may produce its prototype SSN in the mid 2040s. After this first prototype it generally takes the second or third generation of SSN before a country like the US, Russia, UK, France (which began not with SSNs but with with HEU then LEU Le Redoutable-class SSBNs and only then developed 2 versions of LEU Rubis-Améthyste SSNs) and China (is still not happy with mass producing a third generation SSN) before these great powers were happy mass producing SSNs.

SK may take until the mid 2050s or 2060s until it has an SSN comparable to the Virginia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SSN_(hull_classification_symbol)#History

Regards Pete

Anonymous said...

Speaking of the Virginias:

Navy Is Getting A Unique Virginia Class Seabed Espionage Submarine:

https://www.twz.com/sea/navy-is-getting-a-unique-virginia-class-seabed-espionage-submarine


Pete2 said...

Thanks Anonymous at 8/13/2026 12:42 PM

For https://www.twz.com/sea/navy-is-getting-a-unique-virginia-class-seabed-espionage-submarine

The greater the number of undersea internet cables and oil/gas pipes the greater the need for US "Jimmy Carter" special subs. More countries - increasingly sophisticated - need targetted or tapped cables/pipes. Russia also a has a major special submarines effort and China would have one in the works.

Less wealthy submarine owning countries would use undersea robots and piggyback diver delivery/mini-subs.

Pete

Arpit Kanodia said...

Australia would be out of its mind if it ever committed to buying South Korea’s SSN.

First, I don’t see this becoming a genuine cost-sharing or risk-sharing arrangement. If South Korea were interested in that model, why wouldn’t it have committed to AUKUS? AUKUS is already far more mature and has an established framework. South Korea has always appeared to want an independent SSN project, and if that is the path it chooses, best of luck to them.

The bigger issue is the reactor. South Korea’s naval reactor is, at best, still at the design stage. Reaching a genuinely mature and reliable system would likely require years of ground testing—perhaps 6–7 years—followed by 5–6 years of harbour trials aboard a submarine and another 2–3 years of sea trials. That is a very long technology-maturation cycle.

Why would Australia choose to invest in an unproven reactor when it has access to a technology lineage where the problems are already known?

Whatever the issues with PWR2 and PWR3 may be, the problems are already known, understood, and being addressed.

With South Korea’s reactor, Australia would be taking on an entirely different category of risk: not just submarine construction risk, but first-of-class nuclear-reactor risk, qualification risk, testing risk and schedule risk.

Anonymous said...

"Less wealthy submarine owning countries would use undersea robots and piggyback diver delivery/mini-subs."

And the wealthier countries will be getting even more of them:

Anduril Opens Sydney Factory to Build Ghost Shark Undersea Drones:

https://australiatimes.com/anduril-opens-sydney-factory-to-build-ghost-shark-undersea-drones

https://www.globalmilitary.net/ships/ghost-shark/


U.S. Navy Allocates $1.13 Billion for 16 Boeing Orca XLUUVs Under 2026 Fleet Expansion Plan:

https://www.thedefensenews.com/US-Navy-Allocates-113-Billion-for-16-Boeing-Orca-XLUUVs-Under-2026-Fleet-Expansion-Plan/

Anonymous said...

Fr ano
I would disagree as it is likely that the reactor has already been tested successfully on shore.
SK had a not so secret programme in place.(not, ever ,talking officially , but obvious for experts.) for probably more than 10 years.. So you can easily cut your time to maturation by 2..ie mid 30
You do not announce this kind of strategic move without having donre your"homework" as the credibility is at the heart of the move..
This does not mean SK would be a good partner for AUS. Quite the contrary for many others reasons.SSN or SSBN are not a simple piece of equipment.